GreenHybrid - Hybrid Cars - View Single Post

jahwerx · #1 (**permalink**) 05-06-2005, 07:46 PM

I had to transpose, since I couldn't find it electronically on the web (yet)

Source: Car and Driver
Issue: June 2005, Vol. 50, Number 12, Page 31
Author: Brock Yates
Editorial Title: Hybrid Hype, and miscellaneous ramblings

Quote:

While the greenies and their flunkies in the so-called major media palpitate over the future of the hybrid, the flinty-eyed analysts at California's J.D. Power and Associates have survey data that indicate a less than twinkling future for this complex and expensive alternative to the hated internal-combustion engine of the elites. The J.D. Power folks, who are usually right on the money in their forcasting, predict that 2006 sales among the proposed 17 hybrid models (cars and light trucks) are expected to total about 260,000 units, or roughly 1.5 percent of the domestic market. J.D. Power claims hybrids will grow to 38 models, both cars and trucks, by 2011 and will peak at a three-percent share. Toyota will hold its lead, with Honda in the hunt and Chevrolet, Ford, and DaimlerChrysler playing relatively minor roles.

Three percent of the total market? Wait a minute! The pundits tell us that hybrids are the future - at least until the fuel cell arrives (at about the same time they discover perpetual motion and cure the common cold).

But one of the most respected, high-powered engineering executives in the industry, speaking off the record, recently told me, "J.D. Power is probably right, although maybe a bit optimistic. Everybody in the hybrid market is losing money. The current units, which are very complex, cost about $5000 more than a normal IC engine. The buyer is paying about a $3000 premium, which means the manufacturer is upside down for about $2000. That, plus the fact fuel-economy gains are less than people think, what with winter when the heater and defroster are used and summer when the A/C is in operation. Yes, there is a small improvement in city mpg, but it's negligible on the open road. Couple that with the still-undertermined cost of maintenance of the Rube Goldberg power units and the unknown life cycle of the battery packs, and the economic advantages become hazy at best.

"A great deal depends on the future price of gasoline or if the government radically increases fuel-mileage standards. But as it stands now, the average customer is going to stay with a conventional automobile because the mpg cost factor makes obvious economic sense.

"The price of fuel and lower-cost technology will govern the market, and the role hybrids will play remains doubtful at best."

Of course, the know-it-alls in the big media have instant solutions. Example: Newsweek columnist Fareed Zakaria recently touted some supremely woozy technology using "plug in" hybrids with flexible fuel (15-percent petroleum, 85-percent methanol or ethanol) and - viola! 500 mpg! Zakaria ignores the wallet-busting cost of producing, refining, and disributing methanol, ethanol, hydrogen, and other alternative fuels - a concept that has long since been hooted down by people who understand the harse realities of energy production. If only these gasbags in the elitist press would do their homework.

... other "miscellaneous ramblings" ensue ...