Re: What if gas goes sky high???
My $0.02. Our capitalistic society is based on disposable personal income. We spend it where we choose - there is a reason you cannot find Nintendo Wii consoles or $400 Iphones as some of us choose to spend our disposable income on them.
As gas prices approach $4-$5/gallon, I don't believe the masses will significantly change driving habits. More and more of our disposable income will go towards gas. Sure, there will be people that purchase hybrids and change habits (such as those on this forum), but in my opinion that is a drop in the bucket - just look at the year over year gas consumption increase, it has shown NO signs of abating.
The total number of hybrids sold so far is tiny relative to the overall number of cars and trucks sold in the U.S. in even one year. Sure, there is progress, but if you've analyzed the numbers of gas guzzling pickup trucks/Suvs sold it's still incredible.
My brother is an example of what I'm talking about. Lives in rural area, commutes about 50 miles round trip to work, has always owned a pickup as long as I remember. What's he doing about gas prices? He's not buying a Xbox 360, pirates all his music and movies, and does ALL his shopping at the Walmart supercenter down the road. At this point, he has no intention of changing his vehicle and neither his friends.
Did anyone see the Walmart guidance? The middle class is really moving towards Walmart now, and malls may suffer this holiday season.
I'm not saying we won't see serious pain at European gas prices, but honestly India and China will bust at some point, which will temporarily alleviate peak oil concerns, I don't see gas prices relentlessly march up, but incrementally with ups and downs along the way due to global events, etc.
IMHO, our government has subsidized oil consumption since WW2, mainly through the military industrial complex activities in the middle east. The current incarnation is the Iraq war, unfortunately it has the opposite effect, an oil premium. Why not move this subsidy into an Apollo scale, alternative energy program as suggested by Thomas Friedman and championed by those such as Gore/ Bill Richardson. We need a breakthrough technology that can get people REALLY excited about alternative energy. We need serious government incentives for alternative energy technologies, both for consumer and industry.
We have to lead and show the world there is another way. Denmark/France/lowland Euro block countries have shown wind/tidal energy advances on small scale, but we need to perfect and implement mass alternative energy. We have to minimize the influence of quasi-terrorist states and limit emerging oil power nations like Russia/Venezuala, etc.
Last edited by teperilloux : 11-17-2007 at 12:03 PM.
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