Regarding the oil companies and known oil reserves, I think that part of the reason for their recent commentary is that the oil company stock price is based, in part, on known proven oil reserves; the quality of these reserves effects investor confidence in the future of the oil business. So naturally, they will spin it such that petroleum prices are driven higher, while they maintain their stock price. And, there's simple supply and demand.

But the concept of 'peak oil' is a fact. True, we don't know what we don't know, meaning that the probability of undiscovered oil reserves is somewhere between zero and one. But even with known, near-exhausted oil fields, when the energy required to extract and refine these difficult fields is equal to or exceeds the amount of energy contained in the extracted oil, then it's a no-win situation, and these fields are left untapped. The same is true with other difficult to extract sources of energy, such as tar sands; there's got to be a net energy gain in the entire process for it to be an energy 'source'.

So what happens when the oil runs out? Well, before that happens, the super-powers jockey for control of the remaining world's oil supply. Which is what we're seeing now in geopolitics. After that, all bets are off. Does anyone want to hazard a guess as to what it'll be like to alter one's lifestyle to pre-1820's?

~Joe

1998 VW Jetti TDI owner