FRAUD: Do Not Buy This Paper!
A good introduction soon fell into a mix of outdated sources followed by assertions contradicted by data tables within the same paper. One or two errors are forgivable but after reading the whole 'paper' I realized this paper is fatally flawed.
I'll expand on this over the next couple of days but high on list are:
- Diesels good on highway are suddenly always better.
- 2002 cost source - ignores Toyota reporting operational profits and quadruples production.
- China pursues hybrids for "unexplained reasons" - like the most populated country on earth knows there is not enough oil.
- India is ignored inspite of active efforts to pursue hybrid technology.
Ok, I went ahead and bought the $40 article after finding more than one reference to it. As I started reading it, I now realize the problem was the original authors. They start out nice but the body of the paper does departs from any sort of careful research and disciplined study:
Quote:
This paper deals with the hypothesis that the recent growing craze for hybrid vehicles in the USA and Europe is simply a temporary step between the traditional technology based on gasoline and diesel engines and the forthcoming of full electric vehicles, probably with hydrogen-powered fuel cells. Such an assumption is shared by several observers from professional as well as academic backgrounds (Ashley, 2002; Hekkert and Vandenhoed, 2004). Hekkert and Vandenhoed (2004) is the most radical challenging the idea that the emergence of hybrid vehicles might be at the expense of the fuel-cell vehicle. Chanaron and Orselli (2002) suggest that hydrogen fuel cells will not be marketable in high volumes before at least 2025 and that most, if not all, information released so far are pure manipulation and marketing by the hydrogen lobby. The quest for low emission (clean) and high-mileage vehicles is on its way and will surely remain at the top of the OEM’s agenda.
Because new facts and events occur on a daily basis, such a paper is inevitably out-dated as far as factual information and data are concerned. They have been updated up to the end of 2006. It has to be pointed out that the research is targeting only passenger cars, SUV and light commercial vehicles.
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As I read more and more of the report, it is clear the reviewers made a number of simple errors in part because the authors failed to keep all facts and data current. For example, they cite the conclusions of a 2002 report on hybrid economics that claims hybrids can not be produced without subsidies (pp. 277.) Yet Toyota reported in 2004 to be making an operational profit on each Prius. Small wonder that Prius sales exploded in 2005 as Toyota could afford to produce as many as could be sold!
One or two errors are forgivable but this report is so flawed as to cross the line from research to advocacy and especially poorly reasoned at that. Internal inconsistencies make you wonder where their peer reviewers were. Substandard, below "C" work!
Thanks,
Bob Wilson