Some of you will be aware of the 'Lithium Supply & Markets IM Conference Santiago 2009' which just concluded. First of all, did anyone go to it? I didn't, and there doesn't appear to be a writeup of it yet, but a very interesting presentation is available online now here.
It's was presentated by TRU Group, an engineering and special metals firm which recently undertook a thorough market evaluation of the outlook for lithium for Mitsubishi.
What they predict is(analysis made in June 2008, pre crunch):
- The total worldwide EV fleet will increase 11-fold from 3m to 33m by 2020(based on my rudimentary analysis of slide 12)
- This fleet will be composed of: PHEV(38%), HEV(55%) & EV(7%)(again based on very rough calcs from slide 12)
- Existing lithium supply will not meed demand at 2018 but new pipeline projects will allow for a buffer provided the projects are enacted soon(10-year lag time).(slide 20)
This report was commissioned by Mitsubishi as a private report. However they authorised TRU to release some of it. Given that Mitsubishi is using Lithium in its recently released i-Miev, any bias would surely be on the up side. No methodology of the report is given and I have no info as to whether they will release the report.
I find it great to have some concrete figures to analyse with. What do you guys make of them?