Well, I actually saw when mine changed from 100% to 90% today - at about 750mi (I cycle through the 5 displays a few times throughout the day, since I can't see everything at a glance).
If we use a linear reduction scale, that would put me at about 7500mi to 0%. But I have the feeling it won't be linear, but logarithmic.
As an experiment, it might be useful to others to keep this thread open and post when your OLM changes and at what mileage. Also the type of driving you do and your climate. We can then get an idea of how 'smart' that OLM really is.
According to the new 'maintenance minder', there is no set mileage indicator on when to change your oil (or anything else). Only change when the OLM says to (it'll start barking at 15%). However, if you think I'm going to leave that factory break-in oil in for that long, I've got a bridge I'd like to sell you
Based on what I saw from the Accord Hybrid, and if the Civic follows the same pattern, I'm going to change out the OEM at about 1700, as that's when the first initial break-in will occur. I'll replace at that first oil change with the Honda 0W-20, because it's got just about the highest amount of Molybdenum disulfide in it, relative to most other commercially available brands. That's the 'special' ingredient in the break-in oil that Honda always refers to. It also doesn't help that right now, I can't find 0W-20 anywhere else but at the dealer.
After the oil's been changed, I'm going to put in about 3 oz of Valvoline Synpower Oil Treatment - it will raise the Moly level back to just about the 500+ ppm that the factory break-in oil has - and then track the OLM and change out at 15% life remaining. Then have that oil analyzed for wear to see how the OLM does, relative to a lab analysis.
The oil for the 3rd change will be Mobil 1 0W-20, as a synoil reduces friction and gives slightly better mileage. I'll continue with that until something better comes along, but so far, nothing has.