Hi ElectricTroy:

___Hubbert’s’s peak is a near future reality for world oil supplies but it is not a reality today. As many have read in the past, what would have happened if ANWR or the Alaska wilderness would have been open for business back in the early 70s’s? The US production peak would have shifted a few years down the road … When have you sat in line at the gas pump because of lessening supply? You haven’t other then the possibility of the Phoenix Arizona area a few years back when a California refinery blew making there own particular EPA mandated blend of gasoline? I remember sitting in lines back in the early 70’s with my father but that was a special production limitation as we all know of now. It will be a few years before supply and demand get out of whack but right now, it isn’t. If we were to hasten the approach (stop all oil exploration including limiting ANWR, Gulf and West coast exploratory drilling, Energy companies limiting R&D and exploration …) we might actually see the switchover to sustainable fuels much sooner albeit at much higher prices then we are seeing today. At this point in time, the guys running the pumps know just the right amount of pressure (Price vs. supply) to apply to keep us hooked and keep us from massively shifting to the other alternatives.

___On the other side of the coin and one that will possibly force the issue is Global Warming. Bio-diesel is a great alternative to beat both the Peak and GW as it is somewhat GW friendly and renewable but it is not without additional expense. When and if the price of a gallon of gasoline/diesel matches the price of B100, then the ultimate final switch will have been pushed. OPEC and the smaller producers no pretty close to where that price is and they will do all in there power to keep it just under that threshold until the peak actually does appear at which time, the switch will happen almost overnight.

___Imho of course

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes
___Hunt Club Farms Landscaping Ltd.
___Waynegerdes@earthlink.net