I won't debate the wisdom of trading in a year, there are way too many variables. However, I don't think that it will be much worse that buying any other vehicle. (You'll get screwed no matter what you do).

I still doubt that we will see discounts for quite some time. People are just now beginning to realize that they can't pay for gas to drive the ole Suburban and still make their house payment . I know this too well. My 03 Explorer just became a Corolla and my V6 pickup truck will become a TCH as soon as it arrives.

I suspect that all but the hardest of the hardcore big vehicle drivers (the ones who really need the vehicle) will downsize somewhat when they trade-in their car. Thus, for the next 3-5 years there will be a mega transition to smaller vehicles.

The "medium/small" car market will have a much larger share of the overall vehicle market. Toyota and others will need to grow their overall capacity of vehicles in that size range. I suspect that the hybrids, if they can make them fast enough, will be a large share of that market.

Additionally, If gas happens to go up higher, the residual value of less fuel efficient cars, especially the big ones, will drop like a rock (see Explorer above). Again, everyone gets screwed, the question is who comes out the best.

Interesting discussion.... I need to put an appointment on my Blackberry for 3 years from now to revisit this thread and see If I was right. Time will tell.