I know there is probably some truth to the 'election year' theory, but from the
conversations that I have had with the futures traders who really set the prices, they were taken by surprise:
1) Expected Hurricanes
2) Lebanon/Israel conflict has cooled
3) Iran is still talking and Iraq pumping
4) Missile tests over the Sea of Japan were over blown
5) The BP Pipeline issue ... wasn't as big as first thought
6 Oil producers and refineries are cranking at 100% due to high margins
7) Supplies are up (see
comment 'rumor' in at least Ohio)
When you get hung out as a trader and the direction changes ... the pendulum swings in excess as those wanting out of their contracts.