If 47.5 gives you a heart attack, then you'll probably be dead by winter!
Seriously, expect it to drop when the temperature drops. On the other hand, you can mitigate that effect by studying and practicing "hypermiling" techniques described here and in other forums (let me know if you need those sites).
I bought my Prius in 12/05, and probably had fuel efficiency in the low 40s through the winter. I can't tell you what the worst was because I didn't start recording my fillups until April. As weather warmed, it gradually rose. Throughout the summer it's been in the 50s.
I've never had a goal in particular until the current tank: 60 MPG. It's been only in the last couple of months that I've really applied hypermiling techniques in a consistent way. It looks like I'll hit my goal; it was at 61.2 this morning at the end of my commute, with just 3 pips left on the fuel gauge.
BTW, it seems as though your "goal" is for a trip at a time. Given that many variables affect your mileage from trip to trip, you may consider a tank-at-a-time goal, or average it out over several tankfuls. If you get caught in a prolonged major traffic jam on a cold, rainy day, your FE will plummet. Then you might be dead BEFORE winter. As a paramedic, I'd hate to hear that my colleagues had to respond to resuscitate you from sub-40-MPG-induced cardiac arrest!
