There are Priuses on the road with +300,000 miles.
I'd say you can easily count on 150k. In 6-15 years when and if you need a new battery you can bet that economies of scale will bring the price of that battery down dramatically.
I trust Honda.
From
http://www.hybridcars.com:
"Myth #2. Hybrid batteries need to be replaced.
Worries about an expensive replacement of a hybrid car's batteries continue to nag many potential buyers. Those worries are unfounded. By keeping the charge between 40% and 60% —never fully charged and never fully drained—carmakers have greatly extended the longevity of nickel metal hydride batteries.
The standard warranty on hybrid batteries and other components is between 80,000 and 100,000 miles, depending on the manufacturer and your location. But that doesn't mean the batteries will die out at 100,000 miles. The Energy Dept. stopped its tests of hybrid batteries—when the capacity remained almost like new—after 160,000 miles. A taxi driver in Vancouver drove his Toyota Prius over 200,000 miles in 25 months, and the batteries remained strong.
There's little to no accurate information about the cost for replacing a hybrid battery, because it hasn't been a requirement with today's models."