Hi all ... I've been kicking Hybrid tires for 2 months now and am ready to buy with Cash in hand. Deposit on 2006 HCH ... BUT ... as we're on the cusp of a new model year (seeing 2007 Camry arrive now), I have a few concerns:

Background:
I've got a decent yet aging Volvo wagon that may need to be fed a few thousand dollars soon. Also have a newer 4x4 and only a 30 mile daily commute, so buying Hybrid is more for long term warm and fuzzy feeling and the practicality of holding decent re-sale for future (yes ... I know most cars are money pits, but still holding out some hope to buck the norm by going Hybrid - am I dreaming?).

I've decided that while I lean towards the Prius Hybrid implementation with it's larger electric motor and more true EV driving time at low speeds, as well as the Prius larger hatchback storage capacity, I far and away prefer the look of the HCH (to the point of saying no to this version of Prius). I also prefer the handling characteristics of the HCH (yes, I've driven both) and lastly, the HCH's appx. $5,000 CDN savings over the Prius is a clincher.

Questions:

1) Will the HCH 2007 version have any changes that bring it closer to the Prius capacity of handling more storage (i.e. Fold Down Rear Seats), or any other changes of significance for that matter?

2) Will the Prius Hybrid Drive VERSION 3 and it's reported *significant increase in battery strength at lower weight and cost, be out any time soon, or is this a bait and hold tactic that may be some time coming to fruition (I've heard 2008 and also heard 2009)?

3) How much of a hit might I take if I drive the current HCH for a year or two (low mileage use) and then trade it in/sell it, and buy a version 3 Toyota Hybrid (or another brand) when they do actually hit the streets? Guestimates anyone?

At this stage, with many more Hybrids likely available in the coming years from numerous manufacturers, and Toyotas claim to be making ver 3 cheaper, stronger, and longer life batteries (I've seen rumour of 85 MPG but we all know how rumours go) , is it really smart to be dropping cash on a car (that I really don't absolutely need - the volvo is still holding together) that may/will/might depreciate significantly as more perhaps stronger EV Hybrids start to come available?

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts,
Drew in B.C.

Drew,
You will never find the perfect time to buy - there will always be something new promised around the corner.

There are several threads here that address your first question - Honda is unlikely to come out with anything new on the 2007. If you live in the states, the rebate is an issue. If you wait too long to buy you could loose the full rebate. There are many threads here that discuss it. But you're definitely safe through Sept, and likely beyond if you stay with the Honda decision.

Can't really answer question 2. Others will, though.

Question 3: Take a look at the post under Hybrid and Related News - Mad market for hybrid... It really depends on what gas prices do. If I were you, I'd figure normal depreciation to be on the safe side (look at how well Civic EXs hold their resale value in the first couple of years, for instance).

There will be other, better, and probably some worse hybrids coming out. Read all about them. There is a lot of info here at GH and lots of speculation too. Again, if you're going to have to sink some significant cash into your Volvo, both the 2006 HCH and Prius are excellent automobiles.

One thing you should also take into consideration b/4 buying is your daily commute (assuming you have one). That could tip your decision toward either the Prius or the HCH, or maybe even convince you to hang onto what you've got. For instance, if you are routinely driving the car on 5 mile or less jaunts, and since you live in a cold climate, you may not see big gains by going hybrid, depending on your current mileage and other factors. Your personal situation is an equation with LOTS of variables.

Thanks Bill ... I'm thinking I may just go for the 2006 HCH anyway and then buy something new again when the 85 MPG hybrids come out (not too soon I hope, nothing worse than buyers remorse) - life's short and it's only money - I'll bet the auto companies love to hear this kind of attitude

If you come across any links to specific threads on Future Hybrids in the works, please let me know.

Cheers

Drew,

I've done quite a bit of research and data collection on the resale value of hybrids. Of course - the big question is what gas prices will be like when you sell it. Obviously if they are down closer to $2.00 rather than current prices, the resale values will likely be less than they currently are.

What my data is telling me for two year old civics (2004's) is that in my area they are going for about $18,500 for a car that sold new for $20,800 (MSRP). That's about 89% of MSRP after 2 years. Most of my data is for cars on dealer lots - so selling privately would net you less and trading in would net you even less yet. But I still suspect you could get 16-17K (for a 2004) or around 80% after two years.

One of the main selling points of my decision to buy in February 2006 was that I expected resale values to remain strong - that along with the hybrid tax credits (federal and PA) meant that I would be paying next to nothing for depreciation over the next 2-3 years. Keep the depreciation low and the total cost of owning the Civic hybrid stays low (as gas costs are obviously below 98% of the cars out there)

Good luck with your decision.

Eric

I have an 04 Prius and I routinely drive less than 5 miles 1 way so I'm only averaging 35-40 mpg. When I take the car on the highway, I get 45+ mpg as long as there aren't too many steep hills.

Infael

2004 Gray Prius with smart start/entry and VSC

I went through the same thought process.. my conclusion was that there will always be a newer and greater on the horizon. I need a car this year, so I'll choose this years models. Cars are used and are eventually replaced. I'll get something better next time.

I went back and forth between the HCH and Prius. I don't favor one over the other really, but due to basic economics I ordered an HCH. It costs less, and they were discounting the HCH for me while all the Toyota dealers in my area were peddling above MSRP. The few grand I don't spend will go into the baby diaper fund ;P I won't even get into the environmental issues with that.

Now.. my Honda dealer may be playing games with me on my HCH order. I think he's stringing me along and not giving me any delivery/ETA information as his dealership is trying to dump out new HCH arrivals at or above MSRP for walk-in customers. He quoted me not much over invoice, so i'm not going to be as profitable a customer. I'll tell you now. I can guarantee they are going to pull a curveball and try to charge me more than they quoted when it does arrive. In that case i'm going to tell him to take the original deal, or leave it. I'll then be getting a Prius at or near MSRP in spite of the increased cost.

Whatever you do, be extra cautious when buying a hybrid. The dealerships are being quite slimy. They say 'they are super popular and are never in stock'. They want you to think that. What it comes down to is.. production is limited, and that is why stocks are very limited. Not because they are selling millions of these things. Any excuse to gouge the customer...

>1) Will the HCH 2007 version have any changes that bring it closer to the Prius >capacity of handling more storage (i.e. Fold Down Rear Seats), or any other changes >of significance for that matter?

I doubt it. Honda however has an early announcement out that they have another hybrid car in the works for release in another 1-2 years. Not much details out, but apparently a lower cost hybrid.. but maybe smaller than the HCH. No idea. Maybe a hybridized Fit? If you want 'uber' gas milage today and a super small car is ok with you. Go with an Insight. If you want mid range price/performance with somewhat smaller cargo, go HCH. If you want larger cargo with slightly better fuel economy, like the gadgets and are willing to pay a premium (over the HCH), go Prius.

>2) Will the Prius Hybrid Drive VERSION 3 and it's reported *significant increase in >battery strength at lower weight and cost, be out any time soon, or is this a bait and >hold tactic that may be some time coming to fruition (I've heard 2008 and also heard >2009)?

Toyota has no plans for a new Prius in the next year or two, as I have heard. If they do I expect it will be minor modifications. The Prius2 is still new, so I doubt they are going to release anything drastically different in the near future. Rumors are that they will be implementing a Lithium Ion based battery system sometime in 2010. That is just second hand knowledge.. so its not for certain. The new battery system will be lighter and have 2x the power capacity. Maybe we'll see 90mpg?

As far as cars go, both the HCH and Prius2 are well above the curve for efficiency. You can't go wrong with a current, existing model.

>3) How much of a hit might I take if I drive the current HCH for a year or two (low >mileage use) and then trade it in/sell it, and buy a version 3 Toyota Hybrid (or >another brand) when they do actually hit the streets? Guestimates anyone?

Think of it this way.. cars lose value and you get the use out of it. They are never an investment. If you want an HCH, just get it and use it until the next Prius comes out. Then decide if its worth switching at that point in time. I truly believe you won't see much of an improvement on the Prius2 for the coming few years. In 3+ years. Yes.

Just my opinions:

1) I would suspect not. The battery pack sits behind the rear seats and (at least in my 03) vents up the back of the back seat out the top of the rear deck behind it. I'm assuming it's this venting that prevents fold-down seats. Unless they do a design change, I'll bet what's in the 06 will be in the 07 and 08 (or as long as they produce that model).

2) I don't imagine that Toyota will provide any definitive answers to this. The quick way to kill Pruis II sales is anounce when the 80-90+ MPG replacement will be available. They'll hold out to the last minute to anounce anything, and wait until they've sold as many Prius II's as they can. My money is on 09.

3) Your only gamble here is banking when the Prius III will actually hit the streets. If you really know you'll get out of it and just need some relief for the next couple years, maybe you can lease an HCH? Get the lower payment and gas savings. You know, you can also go non-hybrid economy car if you really think you'll only spend 2 years in it (Toyota Yaris, Honda Fit come to mind). They're both low cost, good FE. Also, Honda has anounced it's intent to produce a Fit hybrid for (I think) 2008...

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006...rv_hybrids.php

*** Retired after 65,000 outstanding miles ***

Great to hear some feedback on this issue.

Can anyone comment further on Toyota's release date of 2008 for Third Version Hybrids?

- - - -
"The king of hybrid cars, the Toyota Prius, will offer a third generation hybrid drive for the 2008 model according to reports from Japan.

According to one report, the new hybrid drive will offer new batteries that will be lighter than the current generation and will offer greater performance. The second generation Prius provided a significant increase in performance compared to the first generation, increasing battery power by 1.5 times. Thus far it has been stated that the new drive, "will cut prices for eco-friendly vehicles, reduce fuel costs and slash production expenses, company sources said."

Many analysts have noted that soon hybrid batteries will move from NiMH batteries to lithium-ion, but it has not been reported if this change will occur in time for the third generation Toyota hybrid drive.

Nonetheless, this could put Toyota far above the hybrid pack."

http://www.hybridcarblog.com/2005/11...s-in-2008.html

Hi Drew,

A couple off rules of thumb I use:

"Don't let perfect be the enemy of good enough."
"Good, fast, cheap: pick two of three."

I bought a used Prius seven months ago and have been very happy. Yes, a new Prius would have been nicer but not $8,000 nicer! Now that I have some experience with an NHW11 Prius, I know I could have gotten an older one and saved another $6,000 . . . buyer's remorse.

As for an HCH vs Prius, there are things beyond the vehicle engineering that apply. I could not have gone with an HCH or manual because it would have physically hurt my wife.

Now I can buy and maintain my own hybrid electric so a 'used' model is perfectly OK. If you don't have the tools and inclination to do your own work, then by all means, go with a new car or used car still in the first 3/36000 warrantee interval. But your choice.

If you have a running car to sell, it is better to do the deal sooner rather than later. In my case, an accident forced the issue and the rest is history.

Bob Wilson

Operation Iraqi Oil Freedom:

Automatic, stock, project car.

My other 1500 cc car:

Automatic, stock, backup car.
Free speech, dialog and knowledge thrives without the poison of SPAM.

You can be sure if gas goes up hybrids will be in short supply. If gas somehow gets really cheap hybrids will be a dime a dozen.

So which way do you think gas is going to go?