Greetings All,

I bought a Ford Escape Hybrid (FEH) last year, partly in response to rising gas prices. The vehicles were selling at somewhat of a premium, and I believe most hybrids at the time were flying off the lot. Since then, gas prices have dropped to more palatable levels.

Anyway, during that time, I started doing research on the phenomenon of high prices and discovered the concept of "peak oil." I'm sure people that buy hybrids are already familiar with the concept, but to briefly define, it's when half of all the recoverable oil is consumed. It means every day hence there's less. People studying the phenomenon predict great social, economic, and perhaps military instability.

So here's my question: How much do gas prices have to increase (permanently) before people change their habits about transportation, living, and consumerism. I ask because even when the price was $3.50 a gallon, I saw people still driving their Hummers.

I know people expect (and demand) low gas prices, and even in the scenario of higher prices, people will think that it's just a spike. What they don't know is that days of cheap gas are over. The oil infrastructure is already near or at capacity, but U.S. consumption is still increasing voraciously.

I'm interested in opinions of what people think may happen in the near future. Will we transition to new energy sources (and there will be many different kinds) peacefully, or will there be chaos and breakdown, or will it be somewhere in between?

Thanks in advance for your responses.

Jim

First of all, welcome to GreenHybrid.

That is an excellent question - at what point will gas prices induce people to change their driving habits?

The only thing that seems certain is that price threshold will vary from driver to driver. It will have to go higher for the affulent driver. When Hurrican Katrina was a very fresh memory, it was noted that considerably more people used credit cards to pay for gas (there is a thread on that here....) Bicycle sales were the highest in about twenty years. I personally knew of one person getting a motorcycle.

Some people could tolerate well over $5 a gallon gas because they have deep pockets or at least willing to charge up the bill. Here and articles I've seen suggest that sudden gas hikes or a sustained increase will be more likely to change driving habits.

61.5mpg lifetime - 82mpg in recent months

Best Run >
www.cleanmpg.com

"fanatic" is what the lazy call the dedicated

I agree that this will vary greatly by each person.

In my case, the very high gas spikes last year really made me reevaluate some things. As crazy as it sounds, it was really something that made me think hard about why I am drivng roughly 110 miles each day to and from work. In addition, do I really need 2 cars. So after thinking it over, I will be moving this spring to have a reasonable commute and I am getting rid of both vehicles and getting the HCH. The money I'll save in gas/insurance/ and time not spent driving will be nice. While I always had thought that some day I would need to move closer to work, it all became clear last year.

Now all I have to do is wait for my car to come in.

Well I need a truck fairly regularly for my job and home projects. I had to jump thru hoops to get a dealer interested in getting me the 2wd 2.7L Tacoma which was all I need. The 4wd 4L is overkill for me and I'm guessing most Tacoma buyers. Money saved on initial cost ($5500) and much better mileage totally outweighed any benefits.

I hang out at a toyota site and me and the few 2wd 2.7L guys are all getting 26+ mpg compared to 18 or so with the 4L, some are getting only 14. That is unless they got the pre-runner 2wd that is lifted and has the bigger tires of the 4wd. They get more like 20-22 with the 2.7L.

Somehow the general attitude is "who cares" about gas prices.

If you last had a Ford F350 that got 9mpg and you now get 18 mpg you can be happy too though.

Am I alone in finding a strong religious and often anti-semitic side to some "peak oil" prophets that's rather ugly and disturbing.

Sadly, I think the public is being constantly trained and retrained to accept the increases in gas prices. I remember people up in arms when gas prices hit $2/gallon...now we consider anything below $3/gallon cheap.

I have a good friend of mine who drives a Ford Expedition and even if gas hits $5/gallon, she wouldn't give it up.

Retired: 2/11/06

I think Renato is right on.

It all depends on how fast a sudden price increase occurs.

We could have a 7 to 10 cents a week increase and few people would notice.
Who knows, after a couple of months they could stabilize the price and even roll it back a few pennies before increasing again.

Like the frog in a pan of water.

In fact, they're already doing this and no doubt the price will be at $3.00/g again. $5.00 isn't out of the question, as long as it is incremental.

Efficient drivers do it better.
1003 miles a tank personal record. 74MPG calculated. HCH1 CVT

It's crazy to me that someone who gets 10mpg and paying $3 a gallon for gas would be like me paying $15 dollars a gallon for gas. So I say let gas get up to $10 a gallon, for me it'd be worth it, because I could go 700 miles or more on a $120 tank of gas. Everyone else? Ok not everyone... I couldn't imagine it being worth $300 to go 300 miles.

Worthywads,

I don't find the "peak oil movement" slanted in any such way. From what I can tell, it's mostly geologists that are saying oil is running out. I'm much more inclined to believe a geologist than an economist about how much oil is left. I mean, what does an economist know about rock strata and source rock? Besides, it's safer to agree with the geologist and be wrong and have already changed fuel sources than to believe the economist and have to weather all the instability and chaos that could ensue.

Jim

To everyone,

From most of these responses, I conclude this is a sad state of affairs. I was over in Baghdad in 2004 and received nearly deadly wounds from a bomb. Myself and about 150,000 others are/were there to ensure cheap gas for Americans. I would love for all of us to completely rid ourselves of Middle East oil.

I think we must be near peak oil if a couple of hurricaines raised our gas prices by almost double. If we had more than just-in-time deliviery, I think the market could have absorbed the blow to supply. I don't think the problem derived from limited storage, although some might argue that.

I see reports about countries lowering their estimates of reserves (like Kuwait) and using water to pressurize the oil well (like Saudi Arabia at Ghawar), so this is what leads me to believe peak oil arguments.

Anyway, I appreciate all of the responses.

Jim

Just the other day, Hugo Chavez hinted that he could just sell his oil to other countries and lock the US out. Whether or not he could really do that I don't know, but we do rely on a lot of unfriendly sources...

61.5mpg lifetime - 82mpg in recent months

Best Run >
www.cleanmpg.com

"fanatic" is what the lazy call the dedicated