What a very nicely formatted spreadsheet! All of mine end up looking like a splattered surface of numbers.
I do have a concern with it though, the cost of a gallon gas seems to be:
(EDIT: I looked over it again and it looks like the problem is B28 and C28 adding up all the incremental fuel costs instead of using the end of year 10s value. The totals for charting would have to be modified too.)
Year 1: $2.99, Year 2: $5.98, Year 3: $8.97, Year 4: $11.96, Year 5: $14.95 ,Year 6: $17.94, Year 7: $20.93, Year 8: $23.92, Year 9: $26.91, Year 10: $29.90
Is this a mistake?
I fully expect to pay more for all forms of energy (for various reasons, potentially a LOT more), but factoring in $30 gallons of gasoline and approximately $1000 for a barrel of oil in 2015 seems excessive.
I think it could happen, but if it does we'd have many other concerns. Will you have a job? Will your dollar denominated assets be worth anything? Will what you have be able to pay your rent or property taxes without any incoming income? Will what you have be able to feed, clothe, and heat your family? Will the US Govt. be able to meet it's current obligations? Will there be rioting and looting by starving people, requiring habeas corpus suspended and the Constitution nullified? Not having enough energy to continue to service our current debt loads could be a very terrible thing.
Projecting costs for only the next 5 years seems a lot safer to me. The next decade is one giant question mark.
Nice spreadsheet. Very objective. The numbers can, in my opinion, explain a lot of the schizophrenia wrt hybrids in the domestic automotive circles. There is a long term payback to most reasonably priced hybrids, especially on a purchase. The industry model favors 2 year and 3 year leases. Your spreadsheet, as well as one I use at work, predict payback in the 4 - 6 year time frame. For someone who is buying the vehicle and planning to keep it for a while, it makes more sense to buy a hybrid.
Peace,
Martin
I am NOT the official voice of GM with respect to Hybrid issues
I am NOT the official voice of GM with respect to Hybrid issues
I am NOT the official voice of GM with respect to Hybrid issues
In 2-3 year leases you don't have the initial expense of the hybrid since the payments aren't equivalent to owning the car, so the calculation for what's worth it in those terms is a bit different. It may still be worth it.
I'm not sure I understand the math in the spreadsheet. The cost difference between the two cars is $5,365. The difference in annual fuel costs between the two cars is $398.67 per year. The payback period based on annual fuel savings would be $5,365/$398.67 = 13.46 years. The problem in the estimate in the spread sheet is that while fuel savings is a constant, cummulative fuel savings is a linear relationship (i.e., the "area under the graph" of a constant), not quadratic as shown in the plot in the spread sheet.
If my thinking is wrong, please help me understand where.
$30/GALLON??!! This seems a bit excessive.Once we hit $15 in 2011 you will have to armor your Prius to prevent being carjacked for the gasoline in the tank.If we have a price run up like that ,having a fuel efficient car will be the least of your worries.There won't be any job to drive to, and not much food to buy. I assume you are just presenting this as a demonstration, and not as a prediction??Charlie
lol someone write a suggestion to toyota and honda to protect their gas tanks from 10 dollars a gallon future!
i got around 20 km a liter when i drove a civic 5 spd using advanced hypermiler techniques
and now I drive a salvage nwh20 prius that gets almost to 25 km/l with 195,000 km to date.
___Although still estimates, Edmunds TCO comparisons are about the best thing going as far as Year 1, Year 2, through Year 5 and they are based on your own state/city TTL pricing and such. I hope some of you get the opportunity to look this info up on the car(s)/truck(s)/SUV(s) that you currently own or will own in the near future. It may just change your mind when comparing one car to the next with a $0.xx/Mile driven.
xcel: I am ok with your total fuel estimates of $5,835 for 5 years for your Accord. The spreadsheet (at least the version that I downloaded) for a comparable car as yours (a Civic), is coming up with $35,045 - $15,610 = $19,435 for fuel costs for the 5 year point. Further, at the 10 year point, the gas usage in the charting section is $86,871.67 - $15,610 = $71,261.67. To me, those estimates are too high for a Civic and biases the payback period to a much shorter than realistic time. The math needs to be fixed for the charting portion of the spreadsheet. That's all I'm saying.
P.S. In your example, fuel costs escalate from $1,099 to $1,237 over 5 years for your Accord, in the spreadsheet for the charting section it is going from $1,295 to $19,435 for the Civic for the same period.
___I am not using my cars actuals, I am posting Edmunds TCO numbers as a great way to compare actual $s vs. actual $s one might pay over a 15,000 mile/year 75,000 mile 5 year lifetime in whatever car they own or wish to purchase in the future. My PZEV Accord costs far less then there estimates given I receive 56% higher FE then what they estimate the average Accord would receive (30.66 mpg), my insurance is a bit less because I run $1K deductible, and my finance costs are now zip although there is opportunity costs not taken into the equation.
Edmunds explanation on fuel costs
Fuel: This expense is based on EPA mileage figures, assuming consumption consists of two-thirds highway and one-third city driving, and that the vehicle has an automatic transmission unless automatic is not available. Cost estimates are based on self-service prices, using an average mix of two-thirds regular grade and one-third mid-grade gasoline; premium gasoline for vehicles whose manufacturers recommend premium grade; or diesel fuel for diesel models.
___I do not know how they come about changing costs other then a % increase year over year and a falling FE for an older vehicle? I am making a WAG here
Re: Fixed Costs vs. Variable Costs
