Maybe so. But the EPA shows a different story on the HCH2 vs the Civic. 46 MPG vs 32 MPG, as I recall. Maybe ALL the HCH2's have longer commutes, and ALL the regular Civics are used for bumper-to-bumper city commutes. But still, there's a marked difference.
I went through this exact decision-making process (New 2006 Civic EX vs. New 2006 Civic Hybrid). I estimated based on my expectations and knowledge, and concluded that for me, the HCH2 made the most sense. IF gas stays around $3 for the next 5 years, I'll break even at under 100K miles. If if goes higher, I'll break even sooner.
As long as I'm getting close to even during my anticipated ownership, I'm happy to be buying THAT MUCH LESS FOREIGN OIL. No if something super comes along in the next couple years, I'll strongly consider moving to it, but for now I plan to keep the HCH2 for about 6 years, maybe longer.
I posted a long, detailed (boring) summary of my analysis somewhere on this site (maybe a year ago). Now I can't find it (hopefully it's still around).

I get 46 MPG with little effort on mine.

Steve

STOP terrorism - Drive a HYBRID

Vehicles:
350 miles a week ------------ 2006 HCH II, Magnetic Pearl, w/NAVI (born on May 25, 2006)
350 miles a month ---------- 2003 Mazda Tribute ES-V6
350 miles a year (for now) - 1986 Mercedes 560SL

I sure wish i knew where your analysis was. But at that fuel savings page i posted the mpg (very conservative) of a Civic vs Civic hybrid. (I think as a hypermiler I'd do better on both counts). Anyway, it does seem that at *current* prices it takes the life of the car (I figured very conservatively at 100,000 miles) to make it up. In one year you save something like a $50. Of course, anyone who thinks that the current prices will stay this way??). You start going in at $4-5 then it starts getting better. Of course it *could* get higher. I compared the Civic with Civic as this is the most similar car that I could think of. I am not interested in a bigger or more luxury car, and there was nothing to compare the Prius too-- I didn't know about the Matrix, that this is similar enough.

This is all great discussion btw.

--des

Des, I looked for my analysis earlier, but my searching skills must be weak.
Maybe someone better at this than me could help dig it up. There was a whole thread or two about costs and payback.
Even though I *wanted* to use less fuel (by going hybrid), I wanted to make sure I wasn't likely to take a financial "bath" by doing so. I ran the numbers, and they worked for me. I probably still have the original .txt document on my PC somewhere. I'll find it, if no one finds the earlier post.
My biggest concern then (and still now), is the life-span of the hybrid battery pack. I factored in a HondaCare extended warranty. If I would've bought the car in one of the 6 states that mandate a much longer factory warranty on the hybrid components (like CA), I would not have purchased this $980 (I think that was the price) 8yr/120K mile warranty. If you go this route, do NOT be mislead by the dealerships - you can (and probably should) buy any extended warranty from an authorized dealer that sells them in bulk (and therefore, much more reasonable in price) than most stealerships. There's a bunch of post about extended warranties and HondaCare on this site, as well.

Steve

STOP terrorism - Drive a HYBRID

Vehicles:
350 miles a week ------------ 2006 HCH II, Magnetic Pearl, w/NAVI (born on May 25, 2006)
350 miles a month ---------- 2003 Mazda Tribute ES-V6
350 miles a year (for now) - 1986 Mercedes 560SL

You could send it to me if you find it on your computer. I would guess that most cars now are going to live the 100,000 miles. I am getting nervous now, even though I know that there are many Corollas out there that are way way over that, but i don't know if they are making 30 mile commutes.
I consider that a reasonable time to have a car. No I am not the sort that changes a car every year or two or three. Ten years might be a little more like it. ;-)

Yes, I think your statement is right on the mark. I am not real good with figures. The fuel economy website had a neat little calculator.

It sounds like if this year, not sure it *will* be this year though, if I wanted to buy a Civic hybrid it would make more sense than the regular Civic-- a car I would easily consider. The thing is I have not ever bought a new car, and probably am not going to start now. The newest i have bought was a 3 year old (?) Civic back in the 80s I think. I did payments which I easily handled. But then was then and now is now. :-) I got the warranty which was from the stealership (I like that!), as the car was low miles, the Corolla also had a long term warranty, which was also from the stealership, as I was just under the no. of miles needed for this. I used the warranties a few times---nothing extremely major and got the cars checked out by 3rd parties. I would never finance a car this way again and would go thru a credit union or something decent (I think the Corolla was bought flat out-- not financed.)



--des

I would never lump the prius and the matrix in the same boat but i'm sure there is a good reason why some do. I just see the 2 cars as completely different.

Stolen! I cannot take credit, but I like it too

Steve

STOP terrorism - Drive a HYBRID

Vehicles:
350 miles a week ------------ 2006 HCH II, Magnetic Pearl, w/NAVI (born on May 25, 2006)
350 miles a month ---------- 2003 Mazda Tribute ES-V6
350 miles a year (for now) - 1986 Mercedes 560SL

I think if you really want to compare apples to apples you would need to drink gasoline, or have your car drink beer.