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  #31 (permalink)  
Old 11-14-2007, 02:49 PM
Ridiculously Active Enthusiast
 
Real Name: Leah
Location: Chicago area
Hybrids: Honda Civic Hybrid 2005
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Default Re: The Hybrid Movement - Over the "Hump?"

I tend to think that gpsman1 might have the right idea- loss of efficiency, rather than complete loss of operability, seems more likely. But I am not an expert, and so far my car has been practially perfect. When things start to go wrong- and they eventually will, because I plan to drive this baby into the ground- my views might become a lot more informed and a lot more pessimistic all at once, who knows?
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  #32 (permalink)  
Old 11-15-2007, 12:41 PM
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Default Re: The Hybrid Movement - Over the "Hump?"

Quote:
Originally Posted by FastMover View Post
I don't think the battery replacement will be a big deal. People will look at it as a consumable much like the expensive toner cartridges in color laser printers. Assume 80K miles (pretty conservative based on the NYC cabs) and a $3000 replacement cost in current year dollars and the 'reload' of the battery consumable works out to about 3 cents a mile, more than enough to offset the difference between 23 mpg conventional and 35 mpg hybrid...
Couple points:
- I don't think we get over the hump by merely offsetting. If it's a push from a cost of ownership point of view, you cut off the "cheapie" buyers, and some of the "techie" buyers. All you have is "greenie" buyers.
- Considering the offsetting cost of ownership over multiple years is an exercise that only about 10% of buyers probably do (having sold cars, I would say that's not too far off). Most folks will just see "known $3000 repair at 8 years to keep your car running" and will move on.
- Lastly, you only break even in that scenario if you're deciding between a 23 mpg car and a hybrid. If you're talking about a car like my TSX (that gets 29-30) and an HAH (that gets about the same according to our DB here), it's a huge deal - not to mention the HAH cost more than a TSX to begin with. There are more and more Accord/Camary sized cars being offered with respectable mileage. The lure of the TCH/HAH is not so much from a pure cost of ownership point of view. If you factor in a) higher MSRP to begin with and b) a potentially known $3K repair - again you eliminate the cheapie/techie buyers.

As I indicated earlier - a $6-800 replacement falls into the category of "consumable" and not a big deal. I can to 100 different things with $3000 that are significant - that amount is a big deal.

.


*** Retired after 65,000 outstanding miles ***
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  #33 (permalink)  
Old 11-15-2007, 01:21 PM
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Default Re: The Hybrid Movement - Over the "Hump?"

Ford put Escape Hybrids into Taxi Fleet service in New York, San Francisco, and Las Vegas. These cars got heavy use, about as heavy as you can get. Ford says these taxis went 200,000 miles in 2 years without any battery issues. Ford says the 2005 FEH has been more reliable than the gas only version of this car.

I still say ( and still expect ) the HV battery to be a lifetime component.
These batteries will last the lifetime of the car. ( Ford says 15 years )

I don't care what anyone says, after 15 years, (250,000 miles) the car is ready to be taken off the road.... for good.... not have a new battery installed!

The only people who should consider the battery a "consumable" like oil and filters, is perhaps, taxi fleets, and persons who drive 100,000 miles in a year. But after 250,000 miles, does the car look good enough and run well enough in other aspects to hold onto it? I mean, the carpet, seats, engine, won't last forever either?

I'm 99% certain that 99% of all hybrid batteries will last the lifetime of the car. Worry worts will always worry though I guess.....
-John

.

Gasabout $0.05/mi
Gasabout $0.09/mi
E85about $0.09/mi

WORLD RECORD MTE?
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  #34 (permalink)  
Old 11-15-2007, 03:12 PM
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Real Name: Bob
Location: Huntsville, AL
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Thumbs up Re: The Hybrid Movement - Over the "Hump?"

Quote:
Originally Posted by gpsman1 View Post
Ford put Escape Hybrids into Taxi Fleet service in New York, San Francisco, and Las Vegas. These cars got heavy use, about as heavy as you can get. Ford says these taxis went 200,000 miles in 2 years without any battery issues. Ford says the 2005 FEH has been more reliable than the gas only version of this car.
. . .
Is there a public report from Ford or the Taxi companies about how they worked out?? I'm always interested in fleet studies and especially and total cost of ownership data that might have come out.

BTW, can you comment on how well the FEH have sold??? I've been under the impression that there was or is a waiting list to get one. I don't normally track the backlog of other hybrids but was wondering if you might have come across something.

Thanks,
Bob Wilson

.

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  #35 (permalink)  
Old 11-16-2007, 09:15 AM
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Default Re: The Hybrid Movement - Over the "Hump?"

I am not the official spokesperson, and I don't have any specific news, but I think Ford is building them at the same rate people are buying them.

You can buy one off the lot today, in any major city.
The persons who complain about 12-18 week waiting periods are those persons who ordered one with custom options.

This was over 1 year ago, but I read the average Prius sat on dealer lots for only 3-6 days before being sold. The average FEH sat on dealer lots for 20-30 days before being sold... a tad longer than the sit time for a non-hybrid car on a dealer lot.
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