I think we have passed a milestone in the current hybrid "movement" as it were.

Although there is no major indication of slowed sales, I seems as if:

1. Fewer people have questions about their hybrid cars. Does this mean the salespeople are doing a better job of preparing the owners? Does it mean the cars are no longer intimidating new hybrid owners? Are we so far into the movement that many people are on their second or third hybrid and don't have as many questions?

2. There are fewer people throwing stones at hybrid technology. Is it because the "hybrid payback" issue has finally been settled? Is it because gas prices stayed up and people are seeing hybrid payback in a new light now? Is it because some of the naysayers themselves or someone close to them got a hybrid vehicle and they have been silenced? Is it because everything bad to say about hybrids has been said for the umpteenth time, and countered by hybrid fans for the umpteenth time, and now there is nothing more to to do than beat the dead horse? Have so many hybrids proven their point about economy, reliability, and gas savings that the naysayers have run out of good ammo?

3. Hybrids don't seem to be the "mysterious for tech geeks only" car they were a few years ago. Is it because of advertising, or word of mouth, or merely because hybrids are now "just another powertrain option on the lot" for buyers?

Anyone else noticing any of these things happening or am I just smoking something?

This will be the first full month of sales without any of the Toyota/Lexus hybrids getting a tax credit. It will be interesting to see what kind of effect it has on total sales versus October 2006.

Will be very interesting to see how the upcoming clean diesel cars from Honda and others do when they hit the streets in the next 2 to 3 years and see what kind of discussions they generate among car enthusiasts.

Hi,

Remember you're writing to either the pioneers or the ones who followed the pioneers. Most of us have our first and possibly second hybrids. We're still at the 'bleeding edge.'

In two years, I've noticed it ebbs and flows. But the folks who are likely to be early adopters are also very, very curious. We tend to ask questions about our new technology. In contrast, my wife's level of curiosity is not as intense (she often is laughing her head off as I try to explain the subtleties of the some obscure hybrid technology 'issue d'jour'.)
I think Toyota selling over 100,000 units per year finally struck the establishment with a 'clue by four.' They may also have come to realize that 'hydrogen' will always be 'just one more year . . . ' Finally, the reality of a finite amount of fossil fuels may have finally crept into their heads.

I'm having way too much fun with the local skeptics. What with my license tag, "C-52MPG," this is really more fun than I deserve. <grins>
I see two areas that will continue to see improvements:

• hybrid drive trains - they make too much sense and solve a lot of very difficult problems various heat engines have
• more heat engine options - the hybrid drive train makes other heat cycles practical. For example, turbines have great weight and power ratios but terrible throttle problems with both reaction times and partial power. But you could combine a turbine engine with a hybrid drive and have a really neat ride!

BTW, one thing that my hybrid has taught me is there are new fields to explore that were not practical with old technology vehicles:

• advanced lubrication - our lubricant practices are 'dark ages' and we should (and can) do better. This reduces the quantity of lubrication oil and improves vehicle performance.
• waste heat recovery - we are not using the exhaust heat for both cabin heating and air conditioning. There are kilojoules of energy being wasted. Heat management becomes cost effective.
• co-generation - our cars should be our primary house power and when we are away, the house should fall back to to a low-energy, sustaining mode.

I think we have a handle on the skeptics, enough they can't surprise us any longer. The standard answers are readily available so they are reduced to impotent ranting. This is less bad but don't for a heart beat believe they have given up.

I too look forward to the October numbers but know the real question is the inventory on the lots. As long as hybrids don't sit on the lots, we're moving forward.

I'm also confident that GM's two-mode hybrids will be here soon although I'm concerned about who they are trying to sell to and the risks of any vendor introducing 'serial number 1' of any technology. I wish them luck and hope they have the patience to deal with the unexpected problems that will show up.

Bob Wilson

Operation Iraqi Oil Freedom:

Automatic, stock, project car.

My other 1500 cc car:

Automatic, stock, backup car.
Free speech, dialog and knowledge thrives without the poison of SPAM.

Great comments Bob. You always seem to have a depth of understanding on most issues and that comes through in your post and frequently generates new thoughts.

I hope the GM hybrids take off in droves. Right now, it seems like they may be pricing them a little high, but we'll see how that goes as they roll more out.

Looking particularly forward to the Accord diesel coming to the USA. I know the Euro version is just a stud of a car, and if they can do an adequate conversion for the US market, that car should shine.

Looking around another corner: Energy caching is the only proper way to do engine idle stop. We may see the introduction of regular vehicles with basic idle stop, promising fuel savings but they won't store energy. Consequently, their occupants will get cheesed when they find that they got no A/C at stop lights.

Hybrids are still in a very infant state of life at this time. I say this because we have too many technologies behind Hybrids. Toyota's Synergy Drive, Honda's Integrated Motor Assist, etc.

We also have an aging battery technology NiMh.

Manufactures are still treating Hybrids as a niche product or "on the fence" product.

What will build more confident to the general public?


1. Choose one Hybrid technology (ISO) system.
2. Move toward LiOn battery technology now.
3. Move Hybrids from a special car to a platform (Our current Civic Hybrid based solely on the Civic LX Platform. Offer the Civic Hybrid with trim levels like the gas only version (DX Hybrid, LX Hybrid, EX Hybrid, EX-L Hybrid).

The more manufactures integrate hybrid technology into their model lines and trim lines, people will feel it is more standard and will stay.

We are at a point where hybrid cost the same as the regular gas version in some markets. With additional tax credit it might even be cheaper..

Hi,
My experience in engineering has been that having more than one solution makes sense. It allows us the flexibility to choose the optimum solution for the particular mission. For example, a hybrid system designed for a trash pickup truck would be significantly different from one designed for a commuter or a utility van.

LiON has significant problems that have yet to be solved. Before abandoning good enough, a new technology needs to be proven.

I agree that hybrids benefit from a purpose built chassis and that chassis should be integrated with the hybrid architecture. For example, if we are going to have a plug-in, then parking should be all it takes.

Bob Wilson

Operation Iraqi Oil Freedom:

Automatic, stock, project car.

My other 1500 cc car:

Automatic, stock, backup car.
Free speech, dialog and knowledge thrives without the poison of SPAM.

On a daily basis I see more and more people coming in and just being 'ready to buy'. Show me a Prius. We have [ fill in blank ] who have a [ fill in blank ] and they love it. We'd like to see a [ fill in blank ].

Now the hybrids are moving into the mainstream and they have to stand on their own as being 'worth it'.
This Prius is there.
The HCH and TCH also I feel.
The new HH is going to be a disaster I believe. It's soooooo expensive I think it will wither away.
The FEH and MMH are wonderfully redone and I hope Ford sells the hell out of them.
The GM 2-Modes are every bit as good as the HCH or TCH or HH or FEH but here again how many buyers are they going to attract at $44000 -$50000? Yikes.

Note how the entire product spectrum is filled from $20000 up to $50000, from small cars to midsizers to crossovers to large SUVs.

The new lineup of Prius' ( pl ) can't get here fast enough.

Diesel is a welcome addition if the Jetta and Accord end up being in the 40-50 mpg range combined. The TCH will have to move up to 45-ish Combined ( huge jump ) and the new Prius up to 52-54ish Combined ( good-sized jump ).

Sadly, auto makers appear to be of mixed minds on hybrids. This is from tomorrow's NY Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/28/au...s/28TOKYO.html.

I don't want to be the stick in the mud, but I still think the "hump" is yet to come. In 2009 battery warranties will be up on first model Insights, and soon after Prius I. Because of the relatively low sales (compared to now), I think we'll see the surge around 2011 (when first-year HCH I's are out). I'm sure we can specualte with some confidence about the cost and availability, but that rubber has not met the road yet, so to speak. If they can prove these cars can be owned 10+ years without a $2K battery replacement, that will build a LOT of consumer confidence. Don't think the media won't be reporting on that every month or so when the time comes...

*** Retired after 65,000 outstanding miles ***

Why do you say all that?

99.9% of the general population wants new cars in sooner than 10 years.

And only 1% of the 0.1% that keeps cars longer will be hybrid owners.

So to me, that looks like 1 person in 100,000 ( if I did my math right ) that is going to be ticked off when/if their hybrid battery dies.

That's a workable number in my book!
-John