Hmmm this is an interesting topic. Sorry it’s a rainy Sunday and I have a lot of time on my hands and a crazy imagination
Well actually I 2005 will be the hot time for hybrid makers, as for the rest of 2004 and 2005 people will be buying hybrids faster than they can be made. As they will still being sold for less than it cost to make them (well for most)
Then in late 2005 GM will come out with a hybrid Saturn Vue. And it will not be too competitively priced with GM seeing how fast other hybrids are selling. GM still being the standard for car (although they may be a dinosaur) The other companies follow GM’s lead and raise their prices (namely Ford hoping that people are willing to pay extra for American pride) While Honda and Toyota slightly raise prices for extra revenue to pay for new research on making upgrades.
So now in 2006 & 07 sales are slow because of the higher prices and everyone that really cared already has one. Then another terrorist attack comes in 2008 where then America comes together and plans to fight back by making ourselves self maintaining and not importing oil in from the middle east. So there is a cry for hybrids to be pumped out as fast as possible as this seems like the most likely solution, there will be no outburst for fuel cell cars because it is realized how impossible it will be to implement them. And elthonail becomes the new big thing. Also depending on who is in office will determine weather or not oil drilling takes place in Alaska to help the cause.
Chrysler who still make stylish cars and vans but are still some of the least fuel efficient cars out there gets hit hard by this and the fuel cell program failure and the sudden gas guzzling conscious public. Amasses major losses from this and flounders yet again. Daimler then sells the Chrysler division to raise money to buy the latest technology from another company.
2010 there are 20 million hybrids in the US with the newest ones getting 70-80 mpg making us self-sufficient. 70-80mpg is pretty much the cap; automakes then start on working on ways to make cars faster rather than more efficient.
The airlines now start to fold up because people are driving more because it is so cheap. Then out of nowhere in 2020 a foreign automaker comes through with a new car that doesn’t use gas and has more power than anything we have out there. But US raises concerns about safety and puts squishes it. (Parmarilly to protect the big 3 and the airlines. A big deal is made about it but it passes and hybrids are around for longer than anyone expected.
yah, i say that corn oil and biodeisle hybrids ( both hydrolic and electric) will take over temporarily in the next 15-30 yrs before mass gridding of electricity becomes clean, and the capacity of batteries becomes more reasonable.
I don't think there is much resistance to hybrids at all, but I do see them as a trasitory technology. I think that by 2020 gas cars of all kinds, hybrids included will be outmoded.
What makes hybrids a possible poor sell is the idea that "fuel cells aren't far off". why buy a new hybrid now if its going to be out dated in 5 years?
I think that fuel cells are father off than 2010 though, so IMO a hybrid is still a good buy for now.
This is just the begining of the real use of the technology in cars still, so I think that over the next 8 years we will see major improvements in the technolgy, and hybrids getting 70+ mph regularly in daily driving will be common within 5 years.
I think people are very accepting of them, and the market for them will expand rapidly. I think the best markting strategy by far is that employed by Toyota with the Prius, build completely new hybrid cars, don't throw hybrid systems into existing cars, and don't have a hybrid model of a standard car.
Seriously look at the difference in interest between the Prius and hybrid Civic.
While the hybrid Civic is realisticlaly just as good in terms of fuel effeceince, the Prius is exciting and interesting and a flagship, the Civic is just a Civic with a more expensive engine option that saves some gas.
If I were a car maker, I would not make one single cross over hybrid, I'd make an all new hybrid line, perhaps based on some common platforms, but I would still never make a "hybrid Civic", "hybrid Escort", "hybrid Highlander", etc.
Stick to the Prius, Insight, etc concept, and it will work a lot better, even if it is a little more expensive to tool initially.
i know this is getting off topic, but hybrid versions of existing cars save both the manufaturer and the customer money. how much easier is it to put a new driveline system in an already tested and true chasis than to design an all new one?
Originally posted by stevo12886@May 2nd 2004 @ 11:17 PM i know this is getting off topic, but hybrid versions of existing cars save both the manufaturer and the customer money. how much easier is it to put a new driveline system in an already tested and true chasis than to design an all new one?
I have far more faith in anybody but Ford, GM, or Daimler/Chrysler being able to pull it off with a minimum of retooling. The big 2.5 are way too inflexible to be able to do it quickly and competently.
I don't think it's really as easy to put a new driveline into an already-proven chasis, as it might appear on first blush. Think about it. The shape of the engine compartment isn't right for all the new crap that has to go inside. You need to mount "more stuff," and "new stuff," and it's all in a different place than the "old stuff." What about the battery? You can't just place it under some carpet in the trunk. It has to be mounted, protected from the elements and passengers (and vice-versa). It has to be ventilated.
Surely some of these changes will require a reshaping of some sheet metal, drilling of new holes, mounting of addtional brackets, motor mounts, gas line mounts, exhaust pipes, and so on. Weights, balances, and materials will need to be re-assessed, and maybe re-engineered, too.
There are far more design issues than those I mentioned. I probably haven't even scratched the surface!
Well, there goes your "retooling cost savings," flying out the window. And there goes all my faith in the big 2.5 doing it successfully. There's too much to do, and too many changes to make in any existing carline. I'm sorry, but I just don't trust Ford, GM, or DC to be able to pull it off and make a great car.
And that's why the Prius is such a great car...because it was redesigned from the ground up to BE a hybrid.
I think the Insight and to some extent the new Prius (Which I assume you are speaking to vice the orginal Prius) follow this approach. Since the hybrid aspect is mainly to improve fuel economy/emissions then the total picture should be examined vice just looking at the engine. Both the new Prius and Insight have better aerodynamics although the Insight includes the rear wheel skirts to take one step further. Too bad neither got down to the EV-1 levels.
The Insight also took the same approach to the material side in deciding to build the car purely from light weight materials. As a result it is over 400# lighter (0ver a 1000# lighter than the Prius) than a steel version yet 30% stronger. They used materials such as carbon fiber, aluminum and magnesium for various components vice cheaper steel parts.
I think the aerodynamics and weight will also have to change along with the drivetrain to get the maximum value. Have fun, Rick
I don't think it's really as easy to put a new driveline into an already-proven chasis, as it might appear on first blush.
I was wondering what your thoughts were on HCH, the upcoming Accord, Camry, Eclipse etc. I understand that these wil be a Hybrid on a car designed for ICE.
In the case of HCH it appears the only sacrifice is a non-folding rear seat, as that's where the electronics are. There are some additonal features for less drag, such as panels underneath etc, but the frame is basically the same.
Thanks
Steve
Efficient drivers do it better. 1003 miles a tank personal record. 74MPG calculated. HCH1 CVT
of course some re-engineering will have to be done, new spring rates, exhaust systems, and flooring, but as Steve said, the chasis is basically the same. as the hybrid systems are running on smaller engines, the amount of space taken up is basically the same, and electric motors are very flexible as to shape. batteries will probably eat up some of the existing room in the iterior raising the floor of the cargo area some, but there are a plethera of unused space around chasis. the essinsial chasis itself would not have to be redesigned and could even be rolled off the same assembly line with many shared parts.
Yeah, you're right; there are lots of hybrid versions of existing vehicles on the drawing boards. But save for the HCH, they're only just that; the twinkle in an engineer's eye.
My point was not to say it "won't" or "hasn't" or "can't" happen (re HCH; a great car, too). I was only saying that it's not the same thing as just dropping a new engine into an existing car body.
Of course it's possible! And it has been done! But there're lots of things that have to be re-engineered. It's really not a minor thing. And big corporations and manufacturers are so bureaucratic, just changing a body panel or exhaust hanger can be a herculean task, requiring all sorts of mandated studies, approvals, signatures, and maybe even a dispensation or two from God himself! Imagine coming up with new mounting points in the engine bay, or making room for HV cabling and computer displays?
All I was saying is that it may actually be faster, cheaper, and ultimately more efficient for a manufacturer to simply design a whole new car (re Prius and Insight) to support the new hybrid power plants. After all, if it were faster or more convenient to use existing car body lines, then why aren't there other cars already? Prius and Insight have been out for a few years now, and the technology has been well-proven.
Maybe I'm wrong. If so, please pardon my conjecture.
1003 miles a tank personal record. 74MPG calculated. HCH1 CVT
