How about we all predict what the hybrid world will be like in the years to come. Then, a decade from now, we can come back to this thread and laugh about how wrong we were.

My prediction:

The general public will reject the hybrid concept for the next 3 or so years until a large portion of well-known and respected vehicles turn hybrid. About 5 years from now, hybrid vehicles will be, while not the majority, well known and accepted. People will have realized that "hybrid" is not synonymous with "plug-it-in" and "slow."

By that time, America will also be much more gas concious because of the price fluctuations and political climate in the coming few years. By 2010, most will admit the hybrids have evolutionized our market and are quickly leading to the implimentation of hydrogen or fuel cell vehicles. More importantly, our roadways will prepare for a transformation into "smart car" environments where cars communicate and are perhaps guided by an outside source. The actual full implimentation of this, however, would not be for another few decades.

Visit my newly-acquired website, Volconvo Debate Forums!

I think hybrid popularity will continue to rise:
Motor, battery and controlling technology will advance to the point where
there are no noticable change in performance.

Then sooner or later fuel cell or its equivalent will come along and eventually
make all cars that burn gas obsolete.
In 2020 or so you might find Prius and HCH sitting next to an UNDERWOOD typewriter
in some museum with the grand kids asking "What was it like to drive cars like THAT?"
LOL
Steve

Efficient drivers do it better.
1003 miles a tank personal record. 74MPG calculated. HCH1 CVT

Hi Jason and Hot_Georgia_2004:

___There are early technology adopters but the working class folk in this country will still consider the bottom line when they head to their local new car dealership for their next automobile purchase. Once the Hybrid’s match or exceed the performance of their std. ICE based counterparts, then it’s time to compare the pricing. Right now, the extra $4,000 - $6,000 + doesn’t pay for itself in terms of fuel costs for a Hybrid. The RXh appears to be about 1 second faster to 60 then the RX but for a possible $3 - $5K more? If it comes in at the same price, it’s a slam dunk! Emissions most certainly aren’t the issue because if they can clean up the 3.3 L of the RX to SULEV std’s and use it as the prime mover in the RXh, they could have simply made the RX a SULEV. Acura has been running a ULEV-II rated 260 HP - 3.5 L ICE in the 03/04 MDX for 2 years if that helps make sense of it all …

___I believe Ford or GM will finally make Hybrid’s cost effective in some fashion whether that be with an all-Hydraulic EPA designed and patented setup or wheel hub MG sets ala GM’s S-10 Hybrid experimenters. Remember, it was GM’s hydraulic ABS that finally brought ABS pricing down to the masses for a hundred dollars or so instead of the $2,000 that many were spending years earlier. At $20K + for slow compact automobiles, it won’t work for the masses. At $16K + and a faster compact automobile, it will …

___Just my opinion of course.

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes
___Hunt Club Farms Landscaping Ltd.
___Waynegerdes@earthlink.net

I imagine in the short term there will be resistance to hybrids but they will continue to make inroads. Because hybrid technology is associated with smaller vehicles, until it is in more "regular" size cars hybrids may continue to be dismissed. As they are integrated into things like minivans there will be more widespread acceptance. I think whoever puts the technology in a minivan first will capture the largest portion of the market.

I'm not sure what impact hybrids will be on the pickup trucks though. I'm not sure if the technology will be potent enough for some of the towing capabilities that these vehicles need. Which is too bad since pickup trucks often are used for commuting more than for their inteded hauling uses.

I think there will contiune to be focus on things like the cleanliness of emissions. So even if a car is not a hybrid, it will be acceptable because it is clean in other ways.

A decade from now will still be too soon for fuel cell vehicles to be in place because of the long time needed for building infrastructure.

I don't think we'll see the end of the Internal combustion engine by any means, but hopefully the focus on improving mileage to decrease our dependence on foriegn oil.

Eric Powers

MHG Organizer - www.MadisonHybridGroup.com
Hybridfest 2008 - A Hybrid Electric Car Show and More! www.hybridfest.com
Madison, WI July 19 & 20, 2008

"Right now, the extra $4,000 - $6,000 + doesn’t pay for itself in terms of fuel costs for a Hybrid. "

I bought my HCH for 17,400.00, that is not 4 to 6 grand more than a comp. equip. Honda Civic. Yes it is not a fast machine but then speed is not a issue for me. If I wanted speed I would have bought a Vette!

2004 silverblue 5 sp.

I do not think of hybrids in terms of the cost of the fuel. I think of it as just plain using less fuel overall. I think that for the most part people will be stuck paying the price of gas, no matter what it is. But if we could all just reduce our consumption, that would be a very good thing. I know it's hard to believe, but there is a limited supply of gas on this earth, and if we have the technology to extend it's expectancy, we should implement it.

Eric Powers

MHG Organizer - www.MadisonHybridGroup.com
Hybridfest 2008 - A Hybrid Electric Car Show and More! www.hybridfest.com
Madison, WI July 19 & 20, 2008

Me too. And as far as a limited supply of gas on earth, you are correct.

I don't mean to scare anybody unnecessarily, but I believe we are approaching the end of our supply, and that it may be upon us within 30 years or so.

If you've been reading the news lately, and particularly if you've been paying attention to it, you might agree with me that there is some evidence to support this.

Sheesh, I didn't mean to type this much. Read on at your own risk!

I'm not in the predicting business, but here's what I see happening:

Hybrids, with their enthusiastic base, will begin to gain acceptance. But people won't buy them in "greater than 50%" numbers until one or more of the following happen (in no particular order):

1. Gas prices exceed $4 or $5 per gallon for 87 octane, or the price of a fillup exceeds $50 or $60 (whichever comes first).
2. We have gas shortages.
3. We have gas rationing.
4. We have gas lines.
5. We begin to pay extra tax on non-hybrid vehicles.
6. Non-hybrid vehicles become unavailable for personal transportation (due to government-enforced restrictions).
7. We go to war again in another petroleum-producing region or country.
8. Somebody scientifically proves that we have less than 50 years of petroleum oil reserves left. I believe this revelation would affect the oil, energy, and automotive markets even greater than a terrorist attack or a nuclear detonation someplace in the world.

Do I think these things will happen, you may ask? As Eric has already observed, our lovely world is limited, and that means anything on (or inside) is also limited.

Unless we come up with alternatives (and fast, too), I think the chances are very strong for any combination of the above possibilities to happen in the next 20 to 30 years. I think hybrid technology is an excellent technology, but it doesn't really fix the problem. You see, we still have to put gas in our cars.

As long as we pump it out of the ground, it can be argued that we're using it faster than mother Earth makes it. Simple math tells us that eventually, the oil will be gone or otherwise out of reach to us. Therefore, I believe that hybrids are, at best, only a stopgap measure. We must come up with a different way.

Here's another brain-bender for you: At this time, we have no way to acheive sustained flight without petroleum. Have you seen ANY type of aircraft that runs on alternative fuels? I have not. What happens when fuel is too expensive to put in our airplanes?

There are so many variable factors that go into something like this, its almost impossible to come up with one solution. You almost have to thread it like "if x happens, then y benefits/loses which makes z interact positively/negitively with x".

Mitsubishi did a great thing with their e-boost Eclipce concept. I mean really, half of 400 hP coming from a battery source?! Sell the rights to Honda and put that on the IMAS concept and have an electric engine only vehicle with no need for gas and we have a winner! Just tweak the recharge system to a new level and I think that would catch on like Mustangs in the early 60s if gas prices went up.

Really though, one thing scares me. Mitsubishi looks like it might be trying to get into the hybrid business and knows how to do it. But they might be getting out of the automotive business altogether here soon. Chrysler just sold its shares (30% of company stock) of Mitsu without blinking. Something bad is going on there, and its not good for us.

So anyway, heres my shot in the dark: With celebrities promoting (very nice marketing, Toyota :thumbsup the new Insight, it will become an "in" thing here in a few years. Detroit is putting the pressure on the government to raise gas taxes rather than CAFE figures, that in turn will also increase the demand for hybrids.

In 5 years, half the new cars sold will be hybrids. In 10 years, half the cars you see on the street will be a hybrid of some sort. Cars that were new 5 years before will have been saturated into the used car market. Bam, Boom, we have a cleaner earth.

Gas prices will continue to rise because of the lack of demand and eventually we'll see the urgent need to switch to a fuel cell infrastructure. New taxes will be applied to gas for this purpose, furthering the need for people to buy mid-size car hybrids (getting 70 MPG) rather than station wagon/SUV hybrids. In 15 years we'll see gas stations implementing fuel cell systems for the only 2 or 3 fuel cell vehicles on the road. With fuel cell costs being lower than gas, by a significant amount, demand will rise and hybrids will become a fad of the past in 30 years, with electric only and fuel cell vehicles making 90% of new vehicle sales and 10% for hybrids for us old timers that like a little internal combustion.

1999 Camaro Z28 6-Speed
2002 Honda Insight CVT Sold
AIM - PHeNoM Z28

Don't get too ahead of yourself. We'll have a dirtier earth. It just won't be dirtied AS quickly

Visit my newly-acquired website, Volconvo Debate Forums!