In the microprocessor field, Moore's law generally states that power of a computer's CPU doubles every two years, and based on empirical data, this has held roughly true for the last 30 years.
This got me to thinking, "wouldn't it be nice if the same was true in the hybrid-technology arena?" Reliable and predictable increases in power and MPG over time. Along those lines, there is a tread elsewhere on this site speculating about the power and fuel efficiency of the upcoming 2006 civic hybrid -- will it be the same? Or greater? And by how much?
And then I thought, "well, I wonder where we are in the hybrid technology curve anyhow?" Is the technology going to grow at a steady state? Exponentially? Or have we nearly maxed out the efficiency of the gas-eletric technology?
Since this forum is, as we all know, the fount of knowlege and wellspring of truth regarding the present and future of hybrids, I thought I'd throw out the questions and see if anybody wants to weigh in with their ideas about the technological side of things, and what we might expect in the future.
Hybrid technology is nearly 100 years old. There were electric cars. Gasoline cars. And combinations of both. In computer terms, that would be equivalent to using the old "mechanical computers" of WW2-era ships.
The only thing that is "new" is now the hybrid cars are being used by a small portion of the population (~1/2%). So that moves us forward to ~1978 when people first started using primitive PCs.
troy
Last edited by ElectricTroy; 06-27-2005 at 04:58 AM.
Troy:
Hybrid technology may have been around a hundred years ago but comparing the two technologies is like comparing todays computer to the Abacus.
Coyote:
I understand the meaning of your post, but on another thought, if hybrid technology advanced as fast as computers do then our cars would be only worth donation in about 5 years!
Efficient drivers do it better. 1003 miles a tank personal record. 74MPG calculated. HCH1 CVT
"if hybrid technology advanced as fast as computers do then our cars would be only worth donation in about 5 years"
Excellent point! And now, taking your thought one step further -- what a great incentive that would be for automakers!
Of course, if we keep following that train of thought, then we would have to see the demand for fuel-efficient autos to increase in the same manner that demand for CPU power has increased, and the only way for that to happen would be for gas prices to go up, up, up, and pollution to become unbearable.
But back on the topic -- where are we? We keep squeezing more cycles out of CPU technology, and we keep squeezing more Mbits/sec out of networking technology; will we be able to keep squeezing more MPGs out of hybrid technology?
But back on the topic -- where are we? We keep squeezing more cycles out of CPU technology, and we keep squeezing more Mbits/sec out of networking technology; will we be able to keep squeezing more MPGs out of hybrid technology?
Yes, especially as we move away from burning gasoline to move our cars around. Electric drive technology is about 10x as efficient as burning gas alone, and that's what the hybrid improvement is all about. As we figure out clever ways of storing energy in cars that doesn't involve burning it to generate electricity then improvement will really start to add up. Don't forget there's a LOT of resistance to switching to a high FE fleet, just look at the consideration of adding extra taxes to hybrids because they aren't buying enough gasoline! That's just backwards thinking in itself, but that kind of thinking (don't want to "slow" the economy etc) really puts the brakes on real innovation. Remember corporations do not want to compete, they are only forced to by law, and whenever they get the chance they cooperate (more like conspire) to help each other out, and this is not an exception between the auto industry and the oil corporations. This is most likely why Prius manufacturing is being held back as much as it is.
Where are we on the curve? About 90 years along a very flat straight line!
People were driving hybrids as long ago as the early 1900s. EVs were also quite popular back then.
We have regressed to internal-combustion-only cars for 90-odd years!
A 1902 Pieper Voiturette: People were driving hybrids before most of us were born!
Where are we on the curve? About 90 years along a very flat straight line! People were driving hybrids as long ago as the early 1900s.
Yes, exactly my point. Today's hybrids are using the same technology as existed 100 years ago.
However, they have been improved by adding computer control, NiMH batteries, and better motors, so I'd compare today's hybrids to 1970s PCs - still early in the curve.
For a few decades in the 1800s, electric engines enjoyed great popularity because they were quiet and ran at slow speeds that were less likely to scare horses and people. By 1899 an electric car designed and driven by Belgian inventor Camille Jenatzy set a record of 105.8810 km/h (65.79 mph).
Early electric cars featured a large bank of storage batteries under the hood. Heavy cables connected the batteries to a motor between the front and rear axles. Most electric cars had top speeds of 48 km/h (30 mph), but could go only 80 km (50 mi) before their batteries needed recharging. Electric automobiles were manufactured in quantity in the United States until 1930.
___Great read by the way! We haven’t really improved much upon the range with Pb-Acid but the NiMH’s have kicked EV’s up about 3X the amount quoted from way back when.
___According to the last link, those that own them appear to nail down the low teens? In either case, did you read that the Model T ran non-solid rubber tires at 75 pounds pressure? What goes around, comes around.
___There simply isn’t anything like a “Moore’s Law” in regards to automobiles unfortunately … Then again, would you rather be in an accident at 15 mph in a Model T or at 30 mph in today’s latest and greatest Ford Freestyle or upcoming Ford Fusion? I would pick the latter hands down …
While the basic concept of the hybrid engine is a century old, to suggest today's hybrid vehicles are little better than a 1902 Pieper is misleading. Just think for a second and compare the 1902 Pieper to Honda Insight:
both seat two passengers<
both have hybrid engines<
Peiper probably got 25mpg - Insight gets 50mpg+ without even trying - sometimes 80mph+ Engines have come a long way....<
Peiper can't go 113mph at 40mpg. Peiper probably can't do 40mpg at any speed on level ground.<
Peiper weight much less than 1800 pounds without modern crash protection<
Insight has much cleaner engine than Peiper<
The reliability of the Insight is far superior - no tune up for 100,000 miles. Tires last more than 3,000 miles...<
Passenger is enclosed with air conditioning, heating, and defrosting.<
Overlooking the engine improvements, better battery technology, microcomputer technology is casting a blind eye to the progress of a century.
Yes, the hybrid concept has been around for awhile, but it's a huge distortion to imply anything remotely resembling the Insight or Prius existed in the early 1900's.
P.S. xcel was posting at the same time with many of the same points.
Agreed that the Insight is by far technologically superior to the Pieper!
Perhaps I was being a little unfair.
It also just occurred to me that the next big thing in hybrid technology - the plug-in hybrid - is already on the roads, so the curve is definitely taking a more vertical course. Lithium-ion is also making its way into vehicles, so that's big progress too.
hybrid technology curve: where are we?
1003 miles a tank personal record. 74MPG calculated. HCH1 CVT
