I want to believe 3rd party vendors will kick in, but it begs the question is the market big enough and is it profitable enough? Also, while some folks may be very comfortable with their car/engineering skills, I for one would not come near a lethal-dose of electric current. They'd better be affordable to replace at a dealership, because that's where 90% of the people will have it done.
Just look at the electric Rc airplane industry. They are making strides in providing more powerful cells at even lighter weights. That market is very concerned with the power to weight ratio since it determines if the plane can even fly.
There are new cells being devloped, and when my pack goes out, I plan to make my own "super" pack from these hobby cells. I am sure the cost will be about the same as a factory pack, but with much more capacity. The key to unlocking that capacity will come from programing the car to use more energy from the pack and being able to recharge it via house power.
Hybrids: '06 Civic Hybrid Magnetic Pearl w/Navi (as of July 1, 2006)
Posts: 1,124
Re: Hybrids in gas clothing?
OK, John and Bob.
I'll just call you guys when mine goes belly-up, since 168V is more than I want to play with, without knowing enough about the circuitry. Maybe by that time, the How-To guides will have been written, but for now most of us will have a mechanic or a dealer do such replacement.
Hopefully in a few years, we'll have 3rd party battery options AND 3rd party mechanics and DIY'ers ready to tame the pricing I certainly DID consider (for hope for) that likelyhood when purchasing my hybrid, but am a little disappointed in hearing no news yet to lead me to believe it'll actually happen.
Steve
STOP terrorism - Drive a HYBRID
Vehicles:
350 miles a week ------------ 2006 HCH II, Magnetic Pearl, w/NAVI (born on May 25, 2006)
350 miles a month ---------- 2003 Mazda Tribute ES-V6
350 miles a year (for now) - 1986 Mercedes 560SL
On the FEH I think I remember that it has an 8 year or 150,000 mile warranty on hybrid drivetrain components? Something close to that anyway.
I believe Ford literature claims the battery pack is designed to outlast the vehicle.
Here's an idea... once the money saved on gas hits the "break-even" point for you, count forward. The money saved on gas after that point can go towards a new battery.
Best trip: 48.9 mpg over 17.9 miles (scangauge)
Best tank: 40.7 mpg over 606 miles (calculated)
I believe Ford literature claims the battery pack is designed to outlast the vehicle.
I guess I always hoped any vehicle was capable of a much longer life-span than 150K miles. It's kind of like saying Ford believes that something else will fail on the car in some tragic way before you hit 150K that you won't even get around to the issue of battery replacement. I'm not sure that's the best marketing strategy...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brady
Here's an idea... once the money saved on gas hits the "break-even" point for you, count forward. The money saved on gas after that point can go towards a new battery.
That's a fair point. In fact, when I bought my HCH the dealer said by 2011 battery replacement would be $500-800, which was fine by me only because what 8 year old car isn't prone to a $800 fix. However by now you'd expect to see the downward trend in battery prices to reach that mark, not the $3-5K we're seeing. But using that previous line of reasoning, the whole end-to-end cost (to the consumer) of owning a hybrid becomes a wash, which is is just another mark against them IMO. Yes, over a 10-year span a hybrid will use less gas than its gas-only counterpart, so from a "save the planet / natural resources" perspective it's a win. But for the consumer, one can argue then it's financially a wash, if not MORE expensive to own a hybrid for that length of time vs. the gas counterpart (assuming present cost of batteries). So now you've narrowed the target market for hybrids down to the rare few who would pay $1-2K above and beyond the alternative to own and operate a car for no other reason than to use less gas. It's a noble idea, but again to me would mark the beginning of the end of hybrids.
I agree on both counts. 150,000 miles being considered the life of the vehicle? Oh well, I will most likely not get there. I don't think I've ever owned car past 110,000. See, I am a caraholic. New cars just hold this power over me, I can't help it. Every day I go without buying a new car is a good day. Of course, I'm married now so that helps!
As far as the financials, you're 100% right of course... save money on gas to offset the higher step-in cost, then save money on gas to offset the battery replacement, and you're right back to where you would have been if you had just bought the conventional gas version. But if you factor in the hundreds, if not thousands of gallons of gas you didn't pump through the hybrid, you helped save our environment and reduce our dependance on foreign oil, and those are worthy causes!
Best trip: 48.9 mpg over 17.9 miles (scangauge)
Best tank: 40.7 mpg over 606 miles (calculated)
Hybrids: '06 Civic Hybrid Magnetic Pearl w/Navi (as of July 1, 2006)
Posts: 1,124
Re: Hybrids in gas clothing?
I agree as well, Brady and Tim.
My point is that unless the replacement battery cost shrinks considerably, it will GROW as a negative for the anti-hybrid group.
And the 150K warranty is only in the 6 PZEV states.
In TX (and most other states), we get 8yr/80K on MOST IMA components.
The CA/CT/MA/ME/NY/VT states (PZEV) get longer 15yr/150K on all IMA components EXCEPT the Battery Assembly, which is 10yr/150K. This is directly from the 2006 Warranties Manual (last page). The warranty is certainly sufficient in THOSE 6 states. 150K coverage, WITHOUT paying my extended warranty $$$ (which only goes to 120K), was quite good.
Steve
STOP terrorism - Drive a HYBRID
Vehicles:
350 miles a week ------------ 2006 HCH II, Magnetic Pearl, w/NAVI (born on May 25, 2006)
350 miles a month ---------- 2003 Mazda Tribute ES-V6
350 miles a year (for now) - 1986 Mercedes 560SL
...But if you factor in the hundreds, if not thousands of gallons of gas you didn't pump through the hybrid, you helped save our environment and reduce our dependance on foreign oil, and those are worthy causes!
. . .
My point is that unless the replacement battery cost shrinks considerably, it will GROW as a negative for the anti-hybrid group.
. . .
I had to laugh about this. When I was considering buying a used Prius, I was walking into work thinking about 'the battery problem'. We had been discussing hybrids in a local news group and I suddenly realized who was making this claim.
In a decade of USENET discussions, these posters had been wrong about everything they ever claimed . . . and I was taking their word about 'the battery problem'? Within a week, I bought my used hybrid and never looked back.