Aye....those are points well made indeed. But the question of sustainability of any product really lies on "trend of the times". Would battery prices ever drop to a point to make used 8+ yrs old hybrid a worthy purchase? Its a tough decision today (if you are getting anything but a prius) but I can imagine it would be an easier decision in 5 yrs or less. I think the trend is finally in favor of an electric. Look at the various offering and concept cars from the vendors. Having an electric component is really green, cool and trendsetting. Toyota paved the way and now the rest are playing catch up. Its definitely the sign of the times. Assuming prices for these cars drops from the strong market competition, there will be lots of such cars with electric component around. If and when you need a battery replacement, you could perhaps get a used replacement from a junk yard (again, great for prius but questionable for others now). It is foreseeable that there might be better and newer replacement parts at less the money and provide more power by that time. The LiIon pack is an example although it is by no means cheap at this time. But with all manufacturers moving towards the use of LiIon, I trust it would drop quickly.

The only monkey wrench that may offset the trend is if the big oil producers & refiners slash their prices to an ungodly low amount. Perhaps then the market may swing back in the old direction. However, As long as the legislature part of any goverments continue to see the cleaner solution to pollution and not get blinded or distracted by the "hollow" green bills that big oil flash in their face, I think the trend will stay on course for electric car or the like.

By the way, I find it quite remarkable that there are mom&pop outfits like the hymotion providing modifications. Does anyone know for a fact that it is these outfits that pushed the big manufacturers to consider LiIon? I know the technology existed from a decade ago, but did Toyota finally considered it because of the demand for these modifications?

Bob,
My only counterpoint would be that you are arguably more skilled and comfortable with this technology that 99.9% of hybrid owners I know, so going the DIY route to replace your batteries may not seem so daunting. For me, and I suspect others who have to rely on a dealership or an auto shop, the cost is currently a huge problem IMO. One of several things still needs to happen:

a) The OEM batteries last much longer than 8 yrs/100K (and I think we're seeing evidence that they do require replacing after that)
b) Prices drop considerably for what is available - to go from $3-5K now to less than $1K in 2-3 years
c) After market kicks in and a competative battery replacement market drives cost down

I was nervous enough this go-around that it was one of the contributing factors (however minor) to not replace my HCH with another hybrid. I suspect my next car will be a hybrid or EV assuming we get the next-generation of this technology on the streets in 5 years or so. I think 2009-2011 will be a very telling period of time to see which way this all goes.

*** Retired after 65,000 outstanding miles ***

Sorry Bob -- I got into this thread late, so I missed your early post. However, I think it had tremendous value. Those of us in this community that are convinced regarding the application of hybrid technology in the marketplace need a respository for the kind of information you keep to respond to the skeptics and nay-sayers. Is there a place on this website, or another perhaps, where we can concentrate and catalog these responses for use by all of us. Although I have developed by own response to such situations, I am certain that such a resource would have made my own attempts better and stronger. The threads here and elsewhere have the arguments, but they are not indexed sufficiently to permit a quick response. Can we extract the kernals and get rid of the chaff somewhere?

How about it -- anyone agree?

It is the ignorant among us that will eventually destroy us all.

I am sensitive to the issue which is why I applaud Hobbit and others working as hard as they can to support independent, hybrid shops or rather, independent shops that also do hybrid work. This is not a trivial problem because independent shops are faced with daunting learning curve and supply issues. However, the growing inventory of used hybrids makes this a potential growth area.

Now as I age, eventually, my employer will be under more and more pressure to get rid of the high-paid, old farts. Eventually, I'll be forced into retirement but I don't want to be a WalMart greeter.

What I'd like to do is become an independent, hybrid service technician and make my skills available to independent service shops. I'd like to be not their 'employee' but rather a resource they can call upon whenever a hybrid comes in. So the customer service rep can say,

"Why yes, we work on hybrids and we have an expert service technician, Bob Wilson, who comes highly recommended and will give your car <service_shop> quality care. . . . "

Then when I come in, I do the work and also train their senior staff on exactly what I'm doing and why. Over time, they will stop calling me and do simple things like diagnosis, engine, transaxle, inverter and battery repairs on their own. In the meanwhile, I do 'bread and butter' work rebuilding: battery packs, transaxles and <ugh> engines.

How is that for a retirement plan? Work until I drop doing what I do for fun today. <GRINS>

Bob Wilson

Operation Iraqi Oil Freedom:

Automatic, stock, project car.

My other 1500 cc car:

Automatic, stock, backup car.
Free speech, dialog and knowledge thrives without the poison of SPAM.

It's a nice vision, Bob, and I have complete confidence that you could do it. I'm only sorry that I won't be in Alabama to make use of your services down the road (not that I WANT my car to need service-- oh, you know what I mean).

Tim, to respond to your last post, I think that 2007 is going to be a very telling time for 'all this,' and by that I mean that we're very likely to pass a substantial energy bill this year which is going to shape the direction of research in the industry and the regulatory position of the car companies for many years to come. Despite contentious wrangling, HR 6, the Clean Energy Act of 2007, has actually passed both the House (Jan.) and the Senate (June) and may soon become law. They will have a joint committee to work out the differences between the bills that passed, but mileage minimums are going to increase, and funds to promote plug-in hybrids are practically certain, not to mention battery technology and ethanol production, etc. It may not be my ideal bill, but there are many good pieces here, and it's certainly going to have a BIG impact on the way these issues look from now on in the US.

I'd drive to Alabama just to have you work on mine! OK, my next one...

*** Retired after 65,000 outstanding miles ***

I've driven to Alabama (and through it also) several times.
I even dated a girl (long ago) from Huntsville , when I lived in Tennessee.
It's not really THAT far from DFW to drive. But consider the TOWING charge

Steve

STOP terrorism - Drive a HYBRID

Vehicles:
350 miles a week ------------ 2006 HCH II, Magnetic Pearl, w/NAVI (born on May 25, 2006)
350 miles a month ---------- 2003 Mazda Tribute ES-V6
350 miles a year (for now) - 1986 Mercedes 560SL

I suspect that battery replacement cost scenarios will be different for different makes. The Prius II battery pack should see a decline in cost due to the total number in service. How many are there now? I think its coming up on a million. I am not using 1,000,000 as I do not know if that claim by Toyota includes the Prius I or not. Regradless, any 3rd party manufacturer will see this number and think possibility of profit. For some of the other makes, maybe not, thus limiting downward price pressures for them.

Alden Bowles
2005 Toyota Prius II HSD