Hi,

I was checking the Ebay prices and noticed the current list of late model Prius seem to be lower than I'd remembered in the past. For other reasons, I recently surveyed completed Prius prices. I'll wait a couple of weeks and take another look.

Understand, I think softening the Prius prices is a good thing. I seriously doubt they are remaining on the lots, unsold. I'm just looking forward to an affordable upgrade.

Bob Wilson

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I imagine that it's a simple supply and demand issue. While demand remains as high as ever, Toyota has done a decent job increasing the supply.

@AshenGrey: I agree with you... Toyota knows how to play their cards right when it comes to demands and supplies...

________________
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I wouldn't wait too long, Bob. I think gas prices are headed higher as oil demand outstrips supply and that will drive increased demand for hybrids and fuel efficient cars in general. The 08 Prius also was decontented somewhat to lower the price this year and they have juggled the options packages a bit. You can now buy one with the base configuration (no smart key, backup camera or stability control), whereas last year you had to get Pkg 2 with those options. Hence the least expensive model is about $1000 less this year. I think it is a great price now.

I second that. At $98 / bbl retail gas is not long for the $4 -$5 range IMO. At that point it will be a crazy market for just about any vehicle with exceptional fuel economy. Back to MSRP I'd guess even in this Gen's 5th year.

There's a couple reasons for the Ebay price softening:

New cars are now sold below MSRP. Two years ago, most were above MSRP.

Many new hybrids have far less tax credit than before.

Toyota has increased supply.

There are many more hybrids from other companies than 1 to 2 years ago.

Some buyers are waiting for the new technology, e.g. lithium.

I also believe that resell prices are still too high for 5+ year old hybrids. For example, 5 year old Prisises are still $2-3K more than a Corolla. I bet when these cars are 8 years old and the hybrid is closer to needing a new battery (about $5K), it will sell for far less than a Corolla of similar age/mileage.

Tom

In the Prius technical groups I've seen two instances, NHW10 and NHW11, of battery packs being rebuilt by users replacing just the failed cell assemblies. It is too early to report anything beyond they are driving, after a month, without a problem. The common assumption that all cells must be balanced may have larger tolerances than folks had believed.

Near as I can tell, $4k is the high side of replacement (letting Toyota do it all) versus $2.5k, user replacement, down to ~$500 (or less) for user cell assembly replacement. These efforts are on going so it is too soon to declare it a success or failure. . . . Our of warranty batteries aren't failing often enough that we can draw any conclusions.

Bob Wilson

Operation Iraqi Oil Freedom:

Automatic, stock, project car.

My other 1500 cc car:

Automatic, stock, backup car.
Free speech, dialog and knowledge thrives without the poison of SPAM.

I was in full agreement with you until that last paragraph. There is no indication -none - that the batteries will not last the entire usefule life of the vehicle. Since the battery and hybrid system is de facto designed to last through the life of the longest warranty period, 10 / 150, it's very likely that you will not begin to see any 'failures' for upt to 12+ yrs.

But.. this is the key point ...at 10+ yrs no normal vehicle in the US market is worth more than $2000. All vehicles are depreciateing assets and most follow a similar depreciation schedule which is sharply decending in the first two years and flattening out after about 7 yrs to some final 'nominal value'. But during that entire period the Prius should always hold more value than say a Matrix or Corolla or some lesser-priced model. A good rule of thumb for 'value' for Toyotas and Hondas is that they depreciate about 10% per year with the final value being about $2000 at 10 yrs and $1000 at say 13 yrs.

Thus at yr 2 a $24000 Prius should be 'worth' about $19500-$20000 whereas a $19000 Corolla should be 'worth' about $16000-$16500. At 5 yrs the Prius should be 'worth' about $12000 and the Corolla about $9500-$10000.

At 12-15 yrs of age and 175-250K miles no Prius will be worth more than $1000 even if it works perfectly.

I'm talking about auction values here not retail sales to the public.

Yes. I saw an interesting statement from Toyota the other day. They claim that Toyota has never had a hybrid needing a battery replacement due to wear and tear. That's a good statement since Toyota has been selling hybrids for about 8 years.

I hope you are correct that repair/replacement will cost less than $4K.

I was told by a Ford saleman that the current cost of an Escape battery replacement was $7K, but the price would surely come down over the next 8-10 years. ?!

Tom