I'm so tired of hearing about this hybrid 'winter penalty', I decided to run some numbers. On the basis of my results, I want to make a statement that you can take back to your salesman (and any other naysayers):
Hybrid cars save you more money in the winter than in the summer (over non-hybrids)
That's right - not less, not the same, but
more! Not only that, but the colder it gets, the more you save!
My math follows, but first, some assumptions/notes:
- Gas costs $2.39/gallon (this is not even necessary to show the difference, but seeing $s is nice)
- Both the hybrid and the non-hybrid take the same percentage FE hit in the winter. (Most people seem to agree on this, but see comments following the calculations if you don't)
- I used a 20% winter FE hit for my calculations, as that is what I typically see. You may not take a 20% hit where you live, but you will take a hit (ok, unless you live in Hawaii), and my assertion above still holds true.
- Note that I did not use EPA figures for hybrid summer FE, just so that can't be held against me.
- The non-hybrid numbers are real numbers from my 1996 Pathfinder, which I have tracked for years. If you want to run your own numbers using, say, a hybrid Civic vs a non-hybrid Civic, be my guest. The statement above will still hold true (though the savings won't be as great, of course).
Okay, here's the math (it's easy, I promise):
Typical Hybrid 'Per Mile' Gas Cost
============================
Summer (45 mpg): $0.0531/mile (1/45 * $2.39)
Winter (36 mpg = 45 mpg - 20%): $0.0664/mile
Typical Non-Hybrid 'Per Mile' Gas Cost
===============================
Summer (20 mpg): $0.1195/mile
Winter (16 mpg = 20 mpg - 20%): $0.1494/mile
Summer Savings, Typical Hybrid Over Typical Non-Hybrid: $0.1195 - $0.0531 = $0.0664/mile
Winter Savings, Typical Hybrid Over Typical Non-Hybrid: $0.1494 - $0.0665 = $0.0829/mile
So there you have it - Where I live, a typical hybrid saves you 24.9% more (over a typical non-hybrid) in the winter than in the summer. Isn't math great?
I mentioned above that you may not agree with my assumption that all cars take the same
percentage FE hit in the winter. If not, consider this: the calculations yield equal summer/winter savings when the hybrid 'achieves' 27mpg in the winter (a 40% hit, or double the non-hybrid hit). In other words, if you want to say that the example hybrid takes a 39% hit vs the non-hybrid's 20%, go right ahead - my assertion is
still true.
Please spread the word so that we can put this nonsense to bed. Thank you.
(PS: You nit-picky types will have no doubt noted by now that my assertion should read:
Given two cars A and B, such that Car A achieves higher FE at a given temperature than Car B does at the same temperature, and assuming each car's FE is lowered by the same percentage as the temperature is decreased, it can be shown that the absolute differential savings in fuel costs, Car A over Car B, increases with decreasing temperature.
...or something like that. And to that I say, 'Yeah, whatever"

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