There was a really good West Wing episode last night. I took time to take notes. The "quote" indicates actual dialogue from the episode:


HUBBERT PEAK:
"Hubbert's a guy who accurately predicted the drop in U.S. oil production. He predicts world production will peak 10 years from now, and after that oil will be scarce & expensive."


SOLAR:
- clean, accessible, only requires 220,000 km^2
- a square 300x300 miles in the Las Vegas region
- problem - we've only manufactured 10 square kilometers to date. We have 219,990 to go! (huge production obstacle to overcome)


WIND:
- windmills provide electricity to "light up San Francisco"
- problem - that's only 1.3%/30,000 windmills - California needs 1 million more! (huge production obstacle)
- "plus they are an eyesore & no one wants them"


ETHANOL/BIODIESEL:
- corn "made in America" -practical NOW
- reduces CO2/HC output by 30%
- problem - increases HC Evaporative & NOx - only replaces 10% of gasoline


HYDROGEN:
- burns clean (exhaust = water)
- problems - distribution requires liquified hydrogen & arctic temperatures in tanker trucks and at the pump - "extreme pressures leads to a tendency to explode (like the Hindenberg)"


PRESIDENT:
"Improving fuel economy deserves more than a 20 minute debate. Hummer sales has their best month & Prius is increasing production 50%. The market's doing what markets do - sorting itself - messily - and with contradiction. A presidential veto forces Congressional debate & jumpstarts a national debate for better fuel economy.

"And continue looking at alternative fuels. If we wait 'til alternatives are perfect, it's all going to be too late."


========================================

Overall, I thought this was a GREAT episode. Whenever the topic of SUVs or fuel economy or alternate fuels comes up, this episode should be the first thing the participants watch.

Very well done.

Troy

I would absolutely disagree here. We have yet to see any drop in oil production. Especially right now, with the price at $50+ a barrel we are awash in oil. The problem is no more capacity to refine due to nimby problems. The price in the USA is still considerably below that of anywhere else.

Furthermore, we are paying a premium for terrorism that the supplier's have tacked on.

I am for alternate fuels and other ways of generating energy, but nothing will happen until these alternatives are economically viable. No amount of legislation or government interference will cause that.

Dan

Visit my newly-acquired website, Volconvo Debate Forums!

We've seen it:

USA -1970s

It was predicted by Hubbert's Peak.

Troy,

Oil production may have gone down temporarily in the 1970s, but it was not due to hubbard's peak. It was due to the Carter policy of limiting gas prices. When no profit is available to be made due to government fiat, productoin wanes. Yet again, this was nothing to do with production, the amount of oil available, use, etc...it was a government policy that slowed production due to no or little profit available to producers. Very different from a prediction that had anything to do with oil or the production thereof, or available supplies.

Dan

USA oil production didn't go down "temporarily". It's been down ever since the 1970s:



That's the classic Hubbert Peak, and like I said, it was predicted before it happened.

Hi ElectricTroy:

___Hubbert’s’s peak is a near future reality for world oil supplies but it is not a reality today. As many have read in the past, what would have happened if ANWR or the Alaska wilderness would have been open for business back in the early 70s’s? The US production peak would have shifted a few years down the road … When have you sat in line at the gas pump because of lessening supply? You haven’t other then the possibility of the Phoenix Arizona area a few years back when a California refinery blew making there own particular EPA mandated blend of gasoline? I remember sitting in lines back in the early 70’s with my father but that was a special production limitation as we all know of now. It will be a few years before supply and demand get out of whack but right now, it isn’t. If we were to hasten the approach (stop all oil exploration including limiting ANWR, Gulf and West coast exploratory drilling, Energy companies limiting R&D and exploration …) we might actually see the switchover to sustainable fuels much sooner albeit at much higher prices then we are seeing today. At this point in time, the guys running the pumps know just the right amount of pressure (Price vs. supply) to apply to keep us hooked and keep us from massively shifting to the other alternatives.

___On the other side of the coin and one that will possibly force the issue is Global Warming. Bio-diesel is a great alternative to beat both the Peak and GW as it is somewhat GW friendly and renewable but it is not without additional expense. When and if the price of a gallon of gasoline/diesel matches the price of B100, then the ultimate final switch will have been pushed. OPEC and the smaller producers no pretty close to where that price is and they will do all in there power to keep it just under that threshold until the peak actually does appear at which time, the switch will happen almost overnight.

___Imho of course

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes
___Hunt Club Farms Landscaping Ltd.
___Waynegerdes@earthlink.net

I vote biodiesle w/ ethanol as the primer to get 'r all warmed up. I cant rightly say what will happen though, we must wait and see....and hope that we (ok, by this i REALLY mean me) will be able to take a part to alter its course for the better good.
Cheers,
Steven


ps. who says that windmills are eyesores? Wind farms are gorgious...and they allow farming of the land around them.

Hidden Views Photography

I'm really don't know too much about oil production other than what is witnessed as prices at the pump.

I've noticed ever since I began driving in the 70's that gas price rise is seldom linear, but rather follow a staircase pattern. Lately we notice it more because the stairs are suddenly steeper.

Consumers get used to the price and complaints fall off.
Prices go down a little, which makes almost everyone happy.
Then the climb begins and continues until we are ready to break out the pitchforks and go hunting, then they stabilize the price again and the cycle continues.

I wouldn't mind exchanging an exhausted (For other terms) hydrogen pack at the station instead of pumping gas, as long as it doesn't cost too much more than what we currently have.
What if gasoline eventually reaches $4 - $5 or more per gallon here....At that point the hydrogen packs may look more attractive?

I also think those big wind farms are a beautiful sight, almost an elegant concert.

Efficient drivers do it better.
1003 miles a tank personal record. 74MPG calculated. HCH1 CVT

I thought I just said the exact same thing?



Gas prices fluctuate with demand:
summer = millions of Americans traveling = high demand = high prices

January/February/March = Americans staying at home = low demand = low price