Hi folks,

The latest "CNW Marketing" claim suggests reductions and ending of the Federal tax credits will be the deminse of hybrid sales. Furthermore, fractional reductions in relative Hybrid sales from last year, while ignoring other vehicle sale declines, will be used to declare the 'hybrid fad' over. The answer to such claims is simple, the prices hybrids are going for and waiting lists.

Call the local hybrid dealers and ask if they are having trouble selling hybrids and if they have a waiting list. Are the hybrids staying on the lot and have prices softened? But information from your dealer will be less useful than a dealer in the area of any publication that echos "CNW Marketing" claims. This might also lead them to writing an answer as a letter to the editor . . . a powerful statement from the publication's backyard.

A second source, Ebay will be a useful guide using the completed listings. Ebay completed listing are an unassailable, source for tracking hybrid prices. Simply list the top 10 completed sales with mileage, prices and the "sold/no sale" status. Unlike current listings, the completed listings stay around long enough to be 'fact checked.'

Serious news organizations have a fact checker but we can help them do the basics.

Eventually, hybrid production will catch up with the demand and we'll at last see a softening of price. But by then, hybrid technology will be on the next generation, plug-ins. But it will be a confused market with mock-hybrids as well as serious ones.

Bob Wilson

Operation Iraqi Oil Freedom:

Automatic, stock, project car.

My other 1500 cc car:

Automatic, stock, backup car.
Free speech, dialog and knowledge thrives without the poison of SPAM.

I've long stopped believing "expert" publications and market consultants.

I vividly recall, in the early 1990s, when NAFTA was being introduced. On one side there was the Ross Perot's "giant sucking sound" of manufacturing jobs to Mexico. On the other, a consulting company did a study for the company I used to work for, about recommending the location for a new factory they were planning on building.

They recommended going to Taiwan. They completely ignored China, which at the time was rapidly on its way becoming the world's premier manufacturing venue. And on the study they completed on Mexico, they totally failed to discuss -not a single sentence- the pros/cons of NAFTA, although it was on everyday's news.
As it turns out, the company completely ignored the "experts", and built a brand new factory in China, and expanded another in Mexico, which both proved to be savvy business decisions.

The true smart man is the one who appears to be dumb in front of dumb man who appears to be smart.

When CD's came out in the 1984 (+/-) there was a backlash by several media giants (such as Chrysalis) that promoted beter sound, better value in vinyl. 20 years later, CD's are starting to give way to mp3 and digital storage devices. Hybrids will follow the same path.

Not just Super White...Super Duper White...

I don't know about anyone else, but the tax cut was a bonus, not a deciding factor. Back then all I got was a deduction so the $ involved was significantly less that subsequent tax credits. I would have bought the car without it in a heartbeat. Seems rediculous to assume that's even a primary reason why we bought them. Goes to show how little "CNW Marketing" knows about the market...

*** Retired after 65,000 outstanding miles ***

My reaction to this study is that someone missed the boat. Frankly, my Prius is something akin to a "Skinner Box", those behavior modification devices used to train mice. Every time I get a good mpg tank, I get a piece of cheese. Every time I drive, I seek the most efficient route to get the best mileage. Its a joy to drive on a daily basis. And the best part is? I go to the gas station and my tank costs me about $25, while my counterparts at other pumps are shelling out $40, $50, even $75 dollars to fill up. I feel NO PAIN from the pump whatsoever.
Sales won't drop as long as we owners continue to talk about the car. Others will follow, whether a tax break exists or not.

Prius prices(new car selling prices) should drop if gas stays stable, and if Toyota ramps up production.The $3150 was a huge factor in my buying decision.However even without the credit the Prius can be a decent deal dollars and cents wise.Over 100000 miles it is 1970(42 mpg vs 23 mpg actual mpg) gallons better than our 2001 Corolla(Prizm). 1970 gallons is $5900 -The price difference between a loaded Corolla(about $17000 with side side curtains if you get a decent deal-MSRP would be close to $20,000) and a Pk 1 Prius-MSRP about $2300- is just about that $5900. If gasoline goes up-a good bet-them you make $$-sorta. Now the Prius is actually more like a Matrix(carrying area) than a Corolla, and a Matrix would be more like $19500(selling price with side side curtains),and it is also 2-3 mpg down relative to a Corolla, so the deal is even better.
Dollars and cents, if gas stays the same, it is a wash between a Corolla and the Prius, but the Prius is a clear win compared to a Matrix(a better match). The higher resale should more than offset higher insurance rates, and the loss of $$ due to "losing" the extra $3000-$5000 upfront from the higher initial costs.
The HCH2 costs less-gets close to the same mpg, so total cost evens out sooner.
The Prius,HCH2,TCH,and FEH can stand on their own in the market place because they "beat" their competition by 33-85%.The HH is a bit closer-20-30%, but it probably reaches payback at 120,000 miles, and it is a lot faster(more car) for all those miles.Thanks.Charlie
PS-We need a hatchback based on the Camry.It would be the mpg road trip vehicle the HH wasn't.Think 1.2 scale Prius!

I think a good measure of the satisfaction us owners have with our vehicles is the fact that you just don't see many used hybrids for sale. Also, I check inventory now and then (contemplating an '07) and they seem to be moving off the local dealer lots pretty quickly.

I agree with flybyday, as we talk these cars up to others, we can convert some of the doubters. I had a coworker tell me yesterday that he would never buy one because he heard they get much lower mileage in the cold weather. When I asked him how his V6 Escape does in winter compared to summer, he had to admit he had no clue because he doesn't track his mileage....

Another coworker chimed into the same conversation saying he wouldn't buy one because he is afraid of having to replace the batteries. I told him of the 10 year/150k warranty (MA is a green state) he told me I was wrong - the salesman told him they come with a 3/36 warranty. Whatever.

If nothing else, people are talking more about them. The longer the gas stays at $3 a gallon the more people will talk. Great. I want to see hybrid vehicles become the norm. Why? The more that are sold, the more they will be advanced and developed. Who knows where the technology will go - as long as the manufacturers don't give up on them.

Where have you been, vinyl's making a big comeback.

I coincidently am/was listening to "Save The Planet" off Edgar Winter's White Trash - Roadworks on vinyl when I read your post.

Though CDs have improved with newer formats Vinyl is still my preferred choice. MP3 is a huge step in the wrong direction for home use. I don't understand what you mean by the Hybrid following the path of MP3, which is excepting something less that what came before it IMO.

I have to say I haven't considered my carbon footprint with regard to my stereo, I'm powered by a Dynaco ST-70 tube amp that generates enough heat to warm the house in the winter. Jaws drop when my younger MP3 loving friends hear vinyl on a decent system. They seem to be into MP3 because they can get it all for free off torrent sites, instead of buying music legitimately.

Sorry way off topic.

Time to flip the album.

CNW is so fact-challenged that I wouldn't trust them to report the time of day.

As far as tax credit go, I just have two words: SO WHAT? When you buy arius for $23k, you're actually getting $23,000 worth of car. You certainly can't say the same for SUVs. The future replacement for my HCH will certainly be either a hybrid or some other similar fuel-saving technology.

Could you explain what that means? Something is worth only what people are willing to pay for it. Is gas "worth" $3 a gallon? Gold $800 an ounce? Houses around me $600k? If someone is willing to pay that then the answer is yes.

Are my Escape Hybrids "worth" the $26 or so thousand I paid for them? To me they are.