Will hybrids become mainstream cars within the next few years?

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No, says J.D. Power:

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2005...er_hybrid.html

Johan Erlandsson

See mileage data for my 00 Prius.
See my environmental performance (still in swedish only, feel free to ask).

Hi All:

___It depends … When ABS first came out (Optical/electronic/hydraulic), there were $2,000 up-charges for it from the luxury brand automobiles offering it at the time. After a few years, GM figured out a way to make an electronic/hydraulic unit for < $100. With battery prices, MG-Sets, and the controllers as well as gasoline what they are today, the market and profit potential is somewhat limited imho.

___Now lets say the new GM/DCC duel mode hybrid transmission actually costs < $500 and a Prius or Escape HEV sized pack comes down to < $1,000 OEM. With a $1,500 up charge, they begin to make a lot more sense than the $3,000 - $10,000 up charges being seen today.

___Pure rumor but the RXh might be going out at $48,000 - $50,000. The regular RX330 can be had for < $40,000 with similar amenities added coming in around $42,000. Is a 27.5 mpg combined RXh worth $6,000 - $8,000 more then the 21 mpg combined RX330? What about the Escape HEV? The press likes to say the HEV is as powerful as the V6 when using the I4. In the real world, it is just a more powerful 4 and not anywhere near the V6. The up-charge is in the neighborhood of $5,000 - $7,000 IIRC for a combined 33 vs. 24 mpg combined. The Prius II probably has a $4,000 - $5,000 up charge or more. Considering the original Prius I vs. the Echo … Besides the amenities, the Echo w/ Auto runs around $11K. The Prius I was a $20K automobile and built off a very similar if not identical platform. Amenities do not add up to $9,000. The FE differential was even smaller.

___It all depends. If fuel prices stay in the $2.00 range over the next 5 years, a hybrid was a poor financial decision. If they rise to $3, $4, or $5.00 per, they look a lot better. If the up-charge can come down to reasonable levels ($2,000 or less), future Hybrid’s will look that much better as well.

___Good Luck

___Wayne R. Gerdes
___Hunt Club Farms Landscaping Ltd.
___Waynegerdes@earthlink.net

I'm not a huge fan of JD Power. I always get a laugh out of their initial quality satisfaction surveys. Last time I heard GM was in that list of high initial quality satisfaction. Which is a joke to me for a couple of reasons; first, most people evaluate first years in cars by taking a look at items which don't necessarily indicate how long a vehicle will really last or how reliable it will really be. Second, initial quality is subjective. You are generally going to like what you buy unless you went to the car lot and said to the dealer, "give me whatever you want". Fit and finish, ride comfort and amenities are usually the items which people think to about initial quality. Funny because GM uses the least expensive plastics and chooses lower grade finish materials than other companies. There is just a cheep feeling in most GM built vehicles. So, I'm confused how they can be highly ranked for initial quality when their competition eclipses them in just about every way you can think.

The press release from JD Power doesn't indicate what imperical evidence they used to create the numerical conclusions about who will have market share or how popular hybrids will be. They are giving out market share to those who are essentially non-players and totally ignoring current market players (GM vs. Ford). Toyota market share will slip, which I actually believe as more players enter the market, but how much is not something they should predict without loosing face. Unfortunately, everyone will forget their conclusions in a short period of time, so their feet will never be held to the fire about making conclusions with weak or unavailable data.

So, I disagree with most of their conclusions. They are assuming too much, and from bad data or no data. Bad JD Power, bad survey group!

It has been said:
Hybrid drivers come in 3 flavors, greenie, techie and cheapie. Pick any 2.
2005 Prius, Melinium Silver over gray, package 5 (AI)