Hello All,

Several of us have been kicking around the idea for this thread (sorry "occ," I got impatient...lol). Here's the premise:

Oil is a finite resource. I've read a TON of speculation on how much is "left." Estimates are all over the board, from 20 years to 120+ years. There are many variables to consider:

1) How much oil is left? (Probably unknowable with any certainty)
2) How much of that is accessible?
3) How much is left in the known reserves? (Still a bit of speculation)
4) Of what is left (known reserves), will new technology permit the exploitation of the last 20% in a field (currently not feasible).
5) At what point does "Big Oil" make so little money that they take their toys and go home?

So we probably won't see a screeching halt in the oil supply (between newly discovered deposits & attempts to get more out of what is known). However, it is not a stretch of the imagination to forsee a time when oil production could drop by 80-90%, perhaps within 40-50 years.

If you accept the premise, then let's flash forward 50 years. I think we can safely assume that EV technology will be firmly established, and although there could be vehicle supply issues, personal transportation could carry on. Now we have a small minority of wealthy individuals, fighting over the right to buy $10-20/gal gas (today's dollars), for their Hummers. No harm, no foul!

So...no down side yet. Right?

<soft, friendly backhand to your court...GRIN>

You beat me to it, Kraken...but, undaunted, I'll offer some of my opinion:


1st, if there's no sudden climatic event that will scare us into stop using fossile fuel, then peak oil will be reached, maybe even within our lifetime. You dont even have to do any math, except to know that most of the world (by population) have just started their industrial revolution...the US comsuption alone will result in peak oil if no other sources can be found.

If efficiency alone dictates how we drive, we'll all be driving EV in 20 years. If big companies and politics plays a factor, we'll be using up the oil until we run out...that's the scary, yet more likely scenario. Then we scamble to build EV infrastructures.

I just hate to see EV technology retarded again, but this time, because we'll all be expending energy trying to survive global consequences of all that oil we used.

I'm not worry about a world without fossil fuels...we have technology, even today to handle the world's energy needs. I'm worried that we use so much oil that the world will be a mess for our children.

I agree with you OCC. It takes an event to make people want to move from one infrastructure to another. If it is left up to corporations to make that determination, it will be too late. We have friends who went on an Alaskan Cruise last year to show their daughter what an Iceberg looks like. They are afraid they will not be around when she gets much older. Supporting change and a clearner world was the reason they puchased a 2007 TCH and the reason we have hybrids.

Bill

From the Valley of the Sun. -Phoenix, AZ

I want to read more on this thread. I have my own crack pot ideas, but suffice to say, oil will be gone in less time then we want. And when that day comes, I wonder if we will be prepared?

OK! TJ is getting closer, and I can't WAIT to hear more!

As for my other associates, let's put aside the climatic issues (at least breifly). So far, the only downside voiced is the possibility that the alternative EV/infrastructure might not be ready.

First of all, "...I'm not worried about a world without fossil fuels...we have technology, even today to handle the world's energy needs..." I strongly disagree! What are these technologies? WHERE are they?

Let me up the ante: Let's assume that EV is solid, stable & FULLY takes care of personal transportation. The problem is...personal transportation is not going to be our problem. Think about the logistics of moving goods (trucks/trains/ships/cargo planes). Think about people logistics (airlines). Now think about HVAC.

Houston, we have a problem...

I'm going to let this link speak for me... as to an alternate source:

http://www.unh.edu/p2/biodiesel/article_alge.html

Ok...Biodiesel has some great applications for cars and trucks. However, we still face the greater problem of trains (still possible I suppose), large ships, cargo planes, and airliners.

Don't plan on a biodiesel FedEx 747 any time soon...

apart from airliners... everything else on your list runs on diesel. so the switch to an alternate form of diesel will be simple.

Nuclear ... France is running 78% energy from nuclear.
Solar....with current tech, 15% PV efficiency, 3000sqmile of desert is enough to power the US (not including transportation). They have researched 40% PV already.
Hydro, wind, waves....those are just comming of age. If we spend the same amount of $$ on research and infrastructure on those alt energy as we do on Iraq...you do the math.

I agree with livvie, BioD, is a very promissing alt for ALL transportation, except Jet, as you mentioned. However, if we go back to advance turboprop airliners, who knows...(I recall reading some new technology call ionic jet ? Runs on electricity hypercharging some ionic gas...or something, for future spacecrafts) [we are talking about the future, arent we...just the near future, so no mention of singularity energy sources, please]

Desiel Electric Locomotive is alive and thriving...

Another piece of opinion I like to put out there: Of all the alt energy for personal transport (or any transport besides air travel), I think BioD is the only real competition against EV in the future without fossil fuel.

Ahhh...occ, you beat me to the punchline! LOL!

Yes, there's lots of promise for BioD! However, airplanes (at least large ones) are going to be a problem. Moving goods worldwide is also problematic. Think about the effect on the global economy.

While we're at it, what about HVAC? People still need AC in the summer & heat in the winter. Where is all of this electricity going to come from?

Did I just hear the "N" word? LOL!