Temperature and weather conditions have a HUGE effect on fuel economy, maybe the largest effect right along with average speeds driven.
Since you are geeky and likely a little more than conversant with math you should be able to create your own personal algorithm for your typical drive, assuming it's somewhat repetitive.
Starting with the EPA numbers as a baseline ( 100 ) create a seasonal weighted average of your overall FE based on your personal drive and your personal methods.
Here is an interesting point I've noted. The Prius seems to be much more sensitive to highspeed driving than the TCH. The Prius takes a significant hit in FE at 70
mph and higher moreso than does the TCH. That's curious and seemingly against the laws of physics.
Expect your fuel economy to suffer by about 10% in cold weather months if you live in a wintry area.
Lifetime fuel usage: 2.1 GPC at 90,000 miles & counting
PokerPrius - 2005 Seaside AM