CNW Marketing, the end is near, darn it! - GreenHybrid

bwilson4web · #1 (**permalink**) 05-22-2007, 07:28 PM

http://www.fuelcellcarnews.com/News/052207a.asp

Quote:

Is the Hummer really Greener than the Prius? No.
“Dust to Dust” Report Mislead the Media and Public with Bad Science

(OAKLAND, Calif.) The CNW Marketing Research, Inc.’s 2007 “Dust to Dust: The Energy Cost of New Vehicles From Concept to Disposal” caught the interest of the media and the public with its claim that a Hummer H3 SUV has a lower life-cycle energy cost than a Toyota Prius hybrid. Closer inspection by the Pacific Institute, a nonpartisan think-tank, suggests that the report’s conclusions rely on faulty methods of analysis, untenable assumptions, selective use and presentation of data, and a complete lack of peer review. Re-analysis yields results that are often opposite of CNW’s conclusions.
. . .
The Institute calls on CNW to release its full report, including methods, assumptions, and data. Until “Dust to Dust” can be substantiated, the public and policymakers should ignore its conclusions. Unfortunately, “Dust to Dust” has already distorted the public debate.

Download the Pacific Institute's seven page re-analysis of “Dust to Dust” (PDF) at http://www.pacinst.org/topics/integrity_of_science/case_studies/hummer_vs_prius.pdff

Working the theory that every village needs an idiot, I've found the CNW Marketing report a good 'tell' for idiots. If someone cites it, smile, humor them, and put them in the 'village idiot' column.

Bob Wilson

Delta Flyer · #2 (**permalink**) 05-22-2007, 07:53 PM

Mr S was interviewed a few days ago by Channel 4 in Portland.

Let him have a real interview with Mike Wallace. Sure he's tough, but why would that be a problem if you are honest? (exactly my point - you can't BS Mike Wallace)

abowles · #3 (**permalink**) 05-24-2007, 07:13 PM

They quote him here in Dallas on auto talk shows too. Let's see if any of the reputable news outlets pick up on this part of the story.

Droid13 · #4 (**permalink**) 05-26-2007, 06:09 PM

Unfortunately, basic common sense prevailing over sensationalism is rarely news worthy.

bwilson4web · #5 (**permalink**) 05-28-2007, 04:47 PM

CNW Marketing continues to claim the Prius goes only 100,000 miles and recently posted on their web site a Word document with:

Quote:

Originally Posted by CNW_claim

. . .
The 100,000 mile life expectancy for Prius is time as well as distance sensitive. The historical data shows early Prius models were driven an average of only 6,700 miles per year (rounded). At that rate, the vehicle would require 15 years to reach 100,000 miles. It was our determination that is highly unlikely the '05 or '06 Prius models would still be in active service let alone serviceable 15 years from today.
. . .

This turns out to be easily tested using Ebay listings for used Prius:

2006 - 19,500 - FL
2006 - 13,951 - TN
2006 - 11,300 - PA
2006 - 9,517 - OH

2005 - 55,261 - SC
2005 - 49,000 - NJ
2005 - 40,393 - MI
2005 - 35,375 - FL
2005 - 35,000 - AL
2005 - 22,022 - NE
2005 - 20,500 - PA
2005 - 20,000 - TX
2005 - 16,960 - NJ
2005 - 9,500 - CO **
2005 - 8,000 - GA **

2004 - 80,621 - MI
2004 - 32,251 - NJ

2003 - 83,000 - NH
2003 - 25,316 - OH **

** - meets CNW Marketing's criteria

Apparently, the "historical" data is not reflected in the Ebay listings. Somehow, CNW Marketing continues to claim that folks would rather drive their gas vehicle over the cheaper to operate, hybrid.

CNW Marketing goes on to claim:

Quote:

Originally Posted by CNW_claim

. . .
The latest data shows Prius owners are driving more than early Prius owners and the use of the vehicle is becoming a primary means of transportation in a household rather than a novelty. . . .

2001 - 161,818 - CA
2001 - 86,000 - FL
2001 - 57,500 - UH
2001 - 36,862 - UH **
2001 - 26,320 - VA **

** Meets CNW Marketing mileage standard

The biggest problem is finding only five, 2001 Prius listings, three current and two complete. The facts and data are not kind to CNW Marketing's mileage claims.

Bob Wilson

spud · #6 (**permalink**) 05-28-2007, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bwilson4web

<snip>Working the theory that every village needs an idiot, I've found the CNW Marketing report a good 'tell' for idiots. If someone cites it, smile, humor them, and put them in the 'village idiot' column.

This sounds like a rather nasty tactic. Really, isn't it more instructive to explain that the article considers 3 Prius ~= to 1 Hummer. Then go on to discuss your appreciation of hybrid history, engineering, economics, etc.

I am having a hard time understanding the chest pounding I bump into once in a while. Shouldn't we (hybrid users) promote good things by being humble, gracious, informative, understanding? Doesn't that buy more mileage than a holier than thou, self glorifying stance? The ol' flies with honey vs vinegar saw...

Help me out here,

bwilson4web · #7 (**permalink**) 05-28-2007, 09:16 PM

Hi,

Quote:

Originally Posted by spud

. . .
Really, isn't it more instructive to explain that the article considers 3 Prius ~= to 1 Hummer. . . .
. . .

DEAL!

You can get a copy of the CNW Marketing report and supporting data here:

http://cnwmr.com/nss-folder/automotiveenergy/

What I'd like to suggest is read the CNW Marketing report and then do some fact checking. That is how good science and engineering works.

I've been through that report already and reported some of the worst problems:

Still, I look forward to seeing something good in it and perhaps you can find it. One of the most curious bits is the extremely long service interval CNW Marketing gives to the SUV class of vehicles:

Quote:

Originally Posted by CNW_claims

. . . At that rate, the vehicle would require 15 years to reach 100,000 miles. It was our determination that is highly unlikely the '05 or '06 Prius models would still be in active service let alone serviceable 15 years from today.
. . .

Yet curiously, CNW Marketing doesn't make the same claim for large, SUV style vehicles. The 'logic' that fails the Prius apparently 'doesn't work' with the SUVs, which have been given twice this 'life.' This critical innumeracy sustains the whole report.

Bob Wilson

bwilson4web · #8 (**permalink**) 06-05-2007, 07:59 PM

Another shoe drops:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...DGI7Q63U01.DTL

Quote:

. . .
Enter the Pacific Institute, an Oakland-based environmental think-tank, with a counter-report alleging that the CNW report is based on "faulty methods of analysis, untenable assumptions, selective use and presentation of data, and a complete lack of peer review." Among its most flawed assumption: the average H1 Hummer is assumed to last 35 years, and travel 379,000 miles, while the average Prius is assumed to last only 109,000 miles over 12 years.

Change these "assumptions" and you end up with an opposite result -- that the Prius and others like it consume far less "lifetime energy" than monster vehicles such as the Hummer.

The lesson here is to beware of junk science. If you want to do your part to fight global warming, it probably doesn't make sense to trade in your Prius for a Hummer.

Editorial by the San Francisco Chronicle.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lincoln

You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.

Bob Wilson

Tochatihu · #9 (**permalink**) 06-06-2007, 08:26 AM

Stimuated by Bob W analysis of current eBay sales, I went back to ye olde data. I tracked eBay completed sales of 2001-2003 Prius from May 2004 through November 2004. Then I got bored, and stopped. For today's analysis, I assumed that each car was born on 15 April of its model year, and that could be done better perhaps because I also have most of the VINs. Here is a summary chart, to the nearest 100 miles:

Model year ... average miles/yr ... st dev miles/yr ... number of vehicles sold
2001 ............ 16800 ................... 7700 ................. 130
2002 ............ 14800 ................... 7900 ................. 165
2003 ............ 16400 ................... 9200 ................. 77

If one supposes that Prius sold on eBay are representative of the entire population in this metric, then 15000 or so miles per year seems a suitable estimate (for the first few years of life, at least).

Oh wait, this is one of those times when medians may be more appropriate. Those are 16200, 12900, and 13300. So let's say 14 or 15k per year and call it good.

All these data (and more more more) are available in a spreadsheet, if anyone wants to perform other analyses. One of the 03's is Bob's project car, BTW

My 2001 Prius averages 15700 miles per year. Run hard and put away wet (as the saying goes).

DAS

tanstaafl14 · #10 (**permalink**) 06-08-2007, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spud

Shouldn't we (hybrid users) promote good things by being humble, gracious, informative, understanding? Doesn't that buy more mileage than a holier than thou, self glorifying stance? The ol' flies with honey vs vinegar saw...

I for one try to avoid flies. They're disgusting, disease-carrying pests. And the things they like most are manure and decomposing corpses (as any CSI watcher will confirm). So let them gravitate toward CNW and Hummer drivers, respectively.

I put those who buy that CNW swill in the same category as those who claim we never landed on the moon -- a fantasy easily debunked by the most elementary knowledge of the laws of physics. In fact, the term "village idiots" may be too kind for them.