http://www.forbes.com/columnists/200...0716flint.html

Jerry points out that in sales volume, hybrid technology has not been a magic wand. Three hybrid models have been pulled already, the Honda Accord, Insight and GM Silverado, and the second place hybrid is selling at 1/5th the rate of the market leader. Even within the Toyota stable, the hybrids have not replaced the gas-only version. Needless to say, this doesn't bode well for new entrants to the hybrid market.

Not mentioned in the article, Toyota made a manufacturing commitment for their leading hybrid that all but evaporated the shortages and sales took off. Furthermore, the article doesn't list the hybrid backlog on the dealer lots for the different makes and models. During our Georgetown KY plant tour last October, it looked like about 20-25% of the Camry/Solaris production vehicles were hybrids, which makes sense if the hybrids are filling the upscale, Camry production.

The Prius has functional extras that improve performance. For example, the Prius spoiler, air dams and alloy wheels are functional compared to eye-candy versions on ordinary gas cars. But this puts the hybrid in a higher price bracket. I suspect all hybrid models are 'well equipped' for the same reason, performance, but that moves the price into the upper regions of the gas-only versions of each model.

To make a fair comparison of hybrid sales, outside of the Prius, we need to compare the high-end gas-only sales to hybrid sales. We need to compare similar equipped vehicles that only differ by the hybrid drive mechanism. Then we can tell if hybrids are making a mark.

Well it is late and I can tell I'm tired and rambling. Enough for tonight.

Bob Wilson

Operation Iraqi Oil Freedom:

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I agree... in the case of Lexus, the hybrids are all the most upscale of the RX, LS and GS series. It would be nonsensical to try to compare sales figures for the Lexus marque as between hybrid and conventional power trains. Would one compare sales of AMG Mercedes to conventional mercedes?

Really the comparisons are between the Saturn Green line and conventional Vues and Auras, the FHE/LHM and now Mazda Tribute hybrid, the Civic, the Camry and Highlander. The Accord doesn't count because it tried to pull a "Lexus upmarket" with it's more-powerful-than-the-conventional hybrid engine-- and honda failed miserably at that.

Then, once you've got it down to that, you can't compare the base Civic, Camry, etc., to the hybrid, you have to at least compare the LX or whatever trim has comparable features. I agree completely. But this is all too subtle an analysis for people who don't know anything about the market.

The author has a few good points, but he falters and misleads miserably on others.

This is what I mean:
When the 2004 Prius was not selling in numbers as high as it is now, because manufacturing capacity could not keep up with demand, pundits and observers such as this gentlemen would look at the quarterly sales figures and would claim that hybrid sales were lagging compared to the rest of the industry. Back then we had waiting lists.
Toyota enhanced its manufacturing capacity by building the Prius II in China as well and now that the supply pretty much caught up with demand they say the Prius is finally selling well. Now, we have waiting Prius on the lots.

Take Honda and their Civic Hybrid. Honda have repeatedly warned that their initial manufacturing capacity is capped at 38K units worldwide!!!! That is it!! Of course, the civic sales volumes lag behind the Prius, duh.
Now that Honda is extending their manufacturing capacity to China (clearly taking a page from Toyota's book), what will these folks claim when the supply finally catches up with demand ?

So predictable.

Cheers

MSantos

This is one of the reason I so like GreenHybrid, the mix of opinions and sharing of facts. I don't have time to trace every hybrid product line and often feel I'm falling behind in the Prius world. It is everyone bringing something for our "Stone Soup" that makes the meal.

Thanks,
Bob Wilson

Operation Iraqi Oil Freedom:

Automatic, stock, project car.

My other 1500 cc car:

Automatic, stock, backup car.
Free speech, dialog and knowledge thrives without the poison of SPAM.