Toyota: "no way" we can sell more Priuses than 2007 - GreenHybrid

empowah · #1 (**permalink**) 02-19-2008, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Toyota says hybrid sales will be lower in 2008 than 2007, not because people don't want them, but because Toyota simply can't make any more. Bob Carter, general manager of Toyota Division, told Ad Age, that Toyota sold 181,000 Priuses in 2007 and that's simply the best they can do right now: "We can't repeat that [181,000 Prius sold in a year], no way, even though the demand may be there. We just can't keep up. So you will see much more moderate growth because of the supply," Carter said.

Carter then added something ominous: "We are very committed to hybrids but it's not our position that hybrid is the solution to the future." He continues with, "We're looking at high-efficiency gasoline, clean diesel, fuel cells and the plug-in hybrid" which is a little more comforting. Toyota has said battery production is a hurdle for the introduction of plug-in cars. Batteries may be keeping more hybrids from reaching customers as well. Carter (and Toyota's Jaycie Chitwood) described Toyota's plans in great depth with ABG recently.

So, Toyota, the #1 maker of hybrids is saying that, while there is hybrid demand, they have reached the limit of production. For everyone who wonders why hybrid market penetration can't go above a certain percentage of car sales, there's your reason. We've done your part and driven up demand, but apparently more work needs to be done to be able to make more hybrids.

Source: AutoblogGreen

Tochatihu · #2 (**permalink**) 02-19-2008, 11:57 PM

When Toyota started planning the Prius, nickel cost $3/lb. Now it's $12. They have (claimed to) have engineered a lot of cost out of the hybrid drivetrain, but the big battery keeps getting more expensive.

They say it is a profitable vehicle, but I reckon the margin is slim. A business decision to put more effort into other, high-margin vehicles would not surprise me.

When they can do lithium based batteries in high volume and reasonable cost, I expect increases in Prius (or Prius-like) production. Ditto for the other categories mentioned above. Maintain technological leadership, but keep the bleeding to a minimum.

DAS

bwilson4web · #3 (**permalink**) 02-20-2008, 09:00 AM

What this says to me is buy your next hybrid NOW! They ain't goin' to get any cheaper. If you have one, keep it running because they may actually appreciate.

Correction: Wait a couple more months for the recession to get worse. The prices will get better as fewer buyers show up at the dealerships. I noticed a new Camry hybrid, 60 miles, for $23,999 on Ebay (I asked my wife if I could buy it and she said, "No.")

Bob Wilson

msantos · #4 (**permalink**) 02-20-2008, 10:26 AM

"We're looking at high-efficiency gasoline, clean diesel, fuel cells and the plug-in hybrid"

Hummm... Regarding the ordered priorities in that statement... I almost get this feeling of deja-vu!

Sadly, look at the appendage "...and the plug-in hybrid".

Wow, it almost sounds like... Honda said it. <gasp>

Cheers;

MSantos

Harold · #5 (**permalink**) 02-20-2008, 10:48 AM

Well, they could cut back on the # of Trucks, SUV's, Mini Vans they are building and put more energy into the hybrid and more energy efficient modes of transportion. I think they are trying to milk to many areas? H

1stpik · #6 (**permalink**) 02-20-2008, 02:35 PM

If gas goes to $4 per gallon, believe me, Toyota will find a way to increase production, because hybrids will sell fast and profitably.

Tideland Prius · #7 (**permalink**) 02-20-2008, 05:17 PM

Maybe it's not the factory but rather how fast the suppliers can provide the necessary parts?

bwilson4web · #8 (**permalink**) 02-20-2008, 10:17 PM

Something didn't seem right so I went to the original sources to understand what they were saying. Funnily enough, it is time to put your hair out, the original 'quote' doesn't seem to match the Ad Age article:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ad Age

. . .
Ad Age: What's happening with hybrids?

Mr. Carter: Our volume on Prius was up 67% last year. That was a supply-restricted 67% increase. That's 181,000 cars. We can't repeat that, no way, even though the demand may be there. We just can't keep up. So you will see much more moderate growth because of the supply.(Emphasis RJW) The company has nearly 80% of the hybrid market. There are a lot of viable competitors out there. I don't necessarily view it as what's been our competition in the past, but what's going to be our competition in the future. GM is introducing theirs, and you're going to see more activity out of the Asian manufacturers. What everybody continues to work on is not only hybrid, but what other technologies can deliver the environmental, miles-per-gallon benefits. We are very committed to hybrids but it's not our position that hybrid is the solution to the future. We're looking at high-efficiency gasoline, clean diesel, fuel cells and the plug-in hybrid.
. . .

He was talking about the "increase" not the absolute sales. So let's take a look at what the January sales looked like:

http://www.hybridcars.com/news/janua...dashboard.html

Quote:

January is usually not a big month for car sales. This year, the New Year doldrums hit hybrids as well as the larger car market. Sales of all vehicles—hybrids included—were down by approximately 25 percent compared to December. But if we compare this month to January of last year, a familiar trend emerges: hybrid sales grew by 25 percent while the overall market declined slightly.
. . .
Exactly where the economy is headed, and the impact the general economic climate has on hybrid shoppers, remains to be seen. So far, year-over-year sales performance hints that some hybrid models may be recession-proof. The Toyota Prius, for example, grew 37 percent compared with last January—not bad for a four-year-old model that is nearing its next redesign. Other well-established and generally fuel-efficient hybrid vehicles—Camry, Highlander, and Escape—also seem less affected by recessionary pressures. But less fuel efficient models, such as those from Lexus, took a beating this month, indicating that hybrid and luxury are not a winning combination particularly in a lagging economy.

So here are the January 2008 sales facts and data:

Quote:

Originally Posted by jan08-hybrid-market-dashboard.pdf

All hybrids: 22,411 ... -27.5% (12/07) ... 24.9% (01/08)
All vehicles: 1,059,367 ... -28.8% (12/07) ... -2.9% (01/08)

Let's see, compared to all vehicles, hybrids took a smaller beating compared to last month, December. Compared to the previous year's January sales, they are doing quite nice.

In contrast, we these sections that bear no relationship to ordinary reality when compared to the original sources:

Quote:

Originally Posted by empowah

Quote:

Originally Posted by original

Toyota says hybrid sales will be lower in 2008 than 2007, not because people don't want them, but because Toyota simply can't make any more. Bob Carter, general manager of Toyota Division, told Ad Age, that Toyota sold 181,000 Priuses in 2007 and that's simply the best they can do right now: "We can't repeat that [181,000 Prius sold in a year], no way, even though the demand may be there. We just can't keep up. So you will see much more moderate growth because of the supply," Carter said.

Carter then added something ominous: "We are very committed to hybrids but it's not our position that hybrid is the solution to the future." He continues with, "We're looking at high-efficiency gasoline, clean diesel, fuel cells and the plug-in hybrid (bald-face fantasy not in the Ad Age article rjw)" which is a little more comforting. Toyota has said battery production is a hurdle for the introduction of plug-in cars. Batteries may be keeping more hybrids from reaching customers as well. Carter (and Toyota's Jaycie Chitwood) described Toyota's plans in great depth with ABG recently.

So, Toyota, the #1 maker of hybrids is saying that, while there is hybrid demand, they have reached the limit of production. For everyone who wonders why hybrid market penetration can't go above a certain percentage of car sales, there's your reason. We've done your part and driven up demand, but apparently more work needs to be done to be able to make more hybrids.

Source: AutoblogGreen

Sorry but I hate seeing someone make stuff up or quote out of context. Not only did the original quote depart from reality but it also included a bunch of editorial stuff having nothing to do with reality.

Folks, this is just material quoted from a hybrid-skeptic. In this particular case, especially clueless since the source material is readily available.

Bob Wilson

ChicagoHCHII · #9 (**permalink**) 02-20-2008, 11:46 PM

The logical move is to raise the prices on the Prius to the point where it makes sense then. Although this may not be feasible due to consumer backlash, etc but from my economics course it sounds to me like they could raise prices to make more $ and then invest that $ into improving their hybrid supply chain.

I mean if the things are selling above MSRPs they're going to have car salesmen pounding on their doors for more. And we all know how pushy that segment is

bwilson4web · #10 (**permalink**) 02-21-2008, 05:58 AM

The original, still misleading article now has this:

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/02...than-last-yea/

Quote:

UPDATE: Toyota responded by clarifying that Mr. Carter's quote was misinterpreted. The automaker can and will, in fact, produce more Priuses than it did last year. What it likely won't be able to do is match or exceed the rate of growth Prius production had in 2007.

In short, the topic sentence from the source article is wrong, terribly wrong.

Bob Wilson