It seems I read where Toyota made deliberate attempts to ensure that the Camry Hybrid got closer to EPA than most other hybrids. (Of course, I HEARD the same about the HCH-II). I "think" that near-EPA means for the average-Joe driver, not the hypermiling-technique folks that mostly hang out here.
What that means is that unless you work more at FE, the Camry Hybrid MPG is going to be closer to the HCH-II's than you'd think it should be.
The average-Joe probably gets 39-42 MPG in a HCH-II (using AC, normal to quick acceration after a stop, often driving the 8-15
MPH over the speed limit, not coasting at all, let alone to a stop, etc.).
I also "think" that it means, though, that if you work diligently at FE, the HCH-II has much greater FE potential. The more you drive the hybrid (if you're looking at the instant MPG gauge often), the more you learn what it likes. I think this will help us get better FE over time.
I'm suffering with you on the low-end of the MPG-scale, here. But I am encouraged, as I think I see slight improvement. Maybe it's just in my head, though!
I think the engine just loosened up a little at the 1500 mile mark. My use of the car became mostly city during that time, so I didn't notice an MPG jump, but now that I'm back to my normal 75-mile round-trip commute, maybe I will.
I, too, am aiming for 45+ MPG. I think I WILL get there!