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SKEPTICS: How to answer

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Old 07-09-2006, 06:43 PM
bwilson4web's Avatar
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Default SKEPTICS: How to answer

Hi folks,

This is an attempt to collect past and current canards about hybrid electrics into a single document. Although somewhat large, I'd like to leave the document here for review and comments. If too large, we can break it down by just cut and paste of the relevant section(s) into a new thread. Looking forward to your suggestions and enhancements:

Hybrid Skeptic Claims


Hybrid vs. EPA

The easiest complaint is that hybrids do not get EPA miles, but neither does any other car UNLESS driven following the EPA protocol:


  • EPA City - average speed 20 mph over 30 minutes cold, no AC.
  • EPA Highway - average speed 48 mph over 30 minutes, warm, no AC.
It also turns out that at least one hybrid, the Prius, has a critical transition speed, 42 mph, that marks the boundary between two sets of control laws. Frequent transitions through 42 mph leads to the worst MPG.

Hybrid vs manual transmission

No hybrid for sale today has a manual transmission yet frequently a manual transmission or automatic with a manual mode is use for the comparison. A direct comparision would use an automatic transmission vehicle to match driver controls, not everyone can drive a manual.

Highway only test

Some tests are limited to just highway performance, which prevents the hybrid drive train from contributing to the vehicle MPG performance. For those who are primarily dealing with highway speeds, the IMA Honda Hybrids would be a better testing choice.

Mismatched axle HP

The hybrid-electric delivers more HP to the wheels than the engine alone but smaller displacement, lower axle HP vehicle are often used for the comparison test. Thus equal performance vehicles are being compared and the gas or diesel is undersized, which minimizes the MPG difference.

Cold Weather Test

The test will be conducted in the winter or at temperatures below 60F with no warm-up. This ensures the larger mass of the hybrid electric will have to pay the full warm-up, fuel expense. This is often combined with a highway test to ensure maximum hybrid fuel consumption.

Silence about bumper-to-bumper, rush hour testing

The test will seldom include starting from the downtown of a major city in the middle of bumper-to-bumper rush hour. This bypasses the auto-stop built in hybrids and using the Honda Hybrids will tend to show weaker city performance.

Hybrid vs. stripped non-hybrid

Standard hybrids are loaded with what are expensive options on any other car. Price comparisons of the lowest MSRP ignores the cost of an equivalent configured car. As manufacturing efficiencies have improved, the more recent Camry has only a $1,500 MSRP difference


Unfortunately, MSRP does not cover the price differential from supply-and-demand. In the US, vehicle prices are seldom just the MSRP but for high demand vehicles, like the hybrids, are higher and for low demand vehicles, heavy discounts are often available. For example, during Fords 2005 "Family Pricing" program, the Ford Escape was excluded.


Federal tax incentive

Although now rare, there have been articles that neglected the Federal tax savings. This led to Consumer Reports issuing a correction to an article.

State tax incentive

Not all states have them so check for articles that do not list the states that do. A reporter living in a State without tax incentivies would not know about them.

Local traffic incentive

A number of jurisdictions allow HOV lane access, free parking and other advantages. The biased article does not list these hybrid benefits. However, these are not universal policies and change frequently.

Hybrid gas tax

The high cost of gas has caused millions of American drivers to start conserving fuel. They drive slower or use a smaller gas vehicle and some States are seeing lower fuel tax revenue. However, this is used to claim too many hybrids are on the road. But if you add one penny to the total number of Prius that have ever been sold, you're looking at $5,000 per gallon and they all don't reside in just one state. Point out that hybrids are still sparse, labout 1%, and how little they could contribute to the shortfall.

Insurance discount

One insurance company already offers and insurance rate discount. Indirectly, fuel saving hybrid drivers are taking slower routes and driving in a less frantic style, which reduces the risk of tickets, accidents and ultimately, lower insurance rates.

Miles to fuel break even

The New York and San Francisco hybrid taxicabs are saving $4-5,000/year, which is money in the bank for their drivers and represents a one year payback even without the tax breaks. Worse, the typical 'alternative' car is something the hybrid driver would never consider. Point out the problems with the 'alternative' and look for stripped and under powered vehicles.

Used prices

As measured by Ebay completed sale prices, hybrids are holding their own and in times of rising gas prices, come in at premium prices. Used hybrids on the dealer parking lots are have asking prices equal to the MSRP of scarser new hybrids. Use the Ebay completed sales and compare them to Blue Book values. Remember the 'comparison' car and track resale values.

Silence about waiting lists

In most parts of the country, hybrids are only available by signing up for a waiting list that require a deposit.

Battery costs

Invariably, the retail cost of a battery is used and from several years ago. The newer batteries are smaller, more capable and more affordable. Ebay prices for salvage batteries are not cited, which is what a owner financed repair would use.

Dealer costs

Ordinary oil changes, lights, wipers, filters, brakes and tires can be handled by any repair shop. To handle error codes, a shop needs an OBD scanner with the manufacturer codes and the maintenance manuals. Unfortunately, there are few independent shops that welcome hybrids, yet, and the ones that do are on the west coast. However, at least two Prius transaxles have been replaced outside of Toyota shops using salvage parts.

Silence about automation in all cars

Open up any modern car and you'll find one or more computers operating the engine, transmission and other critical systems. Expensive controllers are not unique to hybrids.

Engine wear

Hybrid engines share the load with their electric motors, which means less wear and tear. Compared to an ordinary starter motor. they are two and three times more powerful and directly connected. Integrated with the engine controller, they bring the oil pressure up before supplying fuel and spark so starting is all but wear free.

Transmission wear

Electric motor power has no vibration, which reduces the mechanical stress on the transmission and drive train. They do not have the wear and mass of automatic transmissions because they don't have to deal with the larger power-pulses of a gas or diesel engines.

Battery wear

The larger hybrid traction batteries are never totally discharged or come close to overcharged. They stay in an operating range that gives them exceptionally long life. Batteries in spacecraft last for decades. Furthermore, the batteries have a control computer that monitors temperature and provides cooling air when they are getting too hot and heat when they are cold.

Silence about brakes

Thanks to regenerative braking, the brake shoes are lasting two and three times as long as ordinary car brakes. In fact, there is a small risk of rust in salty environments.

Silverado

Designed more as a contractor's truck with an engine driven generator, the only hybrid-like mode is auto-stop. This has only a minor impact on the vehicle City mileage and no impact on highway mileage.

Lexus

Designed for comfort, this vehicle uses the vibration free power from the motor to achieve a quiet ride. Fuel efficiency is better than the equivalent, automatic gas vehicles while matching them on the road. But they are not high MPG vehicles.

Honda Accord

This vehicle attempted to use an unusually small motor with a large engine and failed to achieve market share. It combines the price and complexity of a hybrid with the fuel efficiency of the gas vehicle.

IMA vs HSD

The Integrated Motor Assist versus the Hybrid Synergy Drive are the Honda and Toyota approaches to hybrid electrics. The IMA couples the motor directly with the engine and generally has no or very limited electric only operation. The HSD has two motors of which one can operate the vehicle in electric only mode. The IMA is simpler but limited capabilities. The HSD has more operating ranges but is more complex. As a general rule, the IMA systems do better in highway driving and the HSDs do better in urban traffic.

Diesels

The ultimate, lean-burn engine, they have had trouble meeting US emission standards and have been noisy and somewhat heavy. They are efficient at highway speeds but suffer in urban environments.


Ethenol

Just another fuel, it is only a matter of adjusting the fuel system to handle ethanol. So instead of burning up 100 acres of corn each year, the hybrids will need just 40 acres.


H(2) Fuel Cell

The fuel, H(2), comes from natural gas which could be liquified and run a vehicle directly. Converting natural gas to H(2) loses energy, reducing the well-to-wheel efficiency. Then the H(2) is a difficult gas to store and worse, has an unusually broad combustion range and burns without much visible light. The fuel cells are expensive to make, suffer from rapid aging and must work in a narrow temperature range. It remains an unproven technology except in a few, special, costly niche environments. None are for sale in local dealers.

Battery chemistry

There are poisonous and hazardous battery chemistries but today's hybrids use the relatively benign, Nickel metal Hydride chemistry. There are no reports of fires and the paste electrolyte oozes, not splatters, jets or spills. Yet apparently the millions of cell phone, flashlight and laptop batteries don't merit mention and many of them have hazardous chemicals.

Battery recycle

The nickel content makes hybrid batteries highly desirable source for raw material.

Special materials

One hybrid has an aluminum body, very recyclable. The others have steel that can be melted and recycled.

Battery hazard

Although the ordinary battery voltages, 200+ VDC, are potentially lethal, they are in a battery case with multiple, computer controlled relays to put them in series. As soon as they lose 12 VDC power or the car detects air-bag deployment in a crash, the battery relays open and the voltages are greatly reduced. All of the hybrid vendors have web pages describing how to deal with hybrid electric vehicles, which are less hazardous than a warehouse or industrial fire.

Occupant safety

All of the hybrids have at least a 4 out of 5 safety rating. In the case of the Prius, the side-impact bags bring it to 5 out of 5.

EMI fields

Several implanted heart monitors are programmed via a magnetic field. However, no one has found an EMI magnetic field higher than the ambient fields. The real hazard for heart monitor users is they have to give up arc welding.


Too quiet

There are reports that in electric mode, some hybrids are too quiet and people don't hear the car in a parking lot. At one time there was a law that all cars had to be proceeded by a flag man. Special cat collars with bells are available from pet stores and can be mounted on the front bumper.


Deminuative language

As long as the SUV and luxury hybrids are ignored, the remaining ones are five passenger cars. Cite the principle of the right tool for the right job, how many seats does a single driver require?

Political claims

So far, only the right-wing talk hosts like Rush Limbaugh claim hybrid drivers are Satan worshipers. However, polling indicates the split is 50/50/50 - Left, Right, Independent. Using the right tool for the right job is independent of politics.

Vanity claims

Apparently, unable to understand the hybrid drivers, the last resort is to claim they are vain people owning their hybrids for show. Point out that there is only one hybrid with a distinctive body style and all others look like their gas equivalent. You have to tailgate these other hybrids to find out they are hybrids.
 

Last edited by bwilson4web; 07-11-2006 at 06:53 AM.
  #2  
Old 07-09-2006, 08:12 PM
Delta Flyer's Avatar
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Default Could be a Good Tool

I have done similar things at pet forums in moderating/administrative roles. Some things come up repeatedly, so I just link them to it. My experience is the disruptive people generally show their hand within ten posts, usually the first one.

Trollers/spammers/other agitators love to feign ignorance. The more options left open to them, the more likely they are going to get a thread flaming, pushing as many hot topics as possible. Links such as this and FAQs, etc can identify people quicker who harbor only ill.

I'm not talking about the skeptic that has an open mind - they might change. Such a link is good for them as well. I'm thinking about those that have joined the forum solely to disrupt and waste time.
 
  #3  
Old 07-09-2006, 10:15 PM
worthywads's Avatar
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Default Re: SKEPTICS: How to answer

Originally Posted by bwilson4web
Hybrid vs manual transmission

No hybrid for sale today has a manual transmission yet invariably a manual transmission or automatic with a manual mode is use for the comparison. The automatic version of the gas or diesel is never used.


Highway only test

To avoid letting the hybrid operate in electric mode, the comparison tests are invariably on a highway test, often at speeds above 65 mph. This ensures the hybrid drive train is never able to contribute to the vehicle performance. The real question is why the highway efficient Honda Civic Hybrid wasn't used?

Hybrid vs. stripped non-hybrid

Standard hybrids are loaded with what are expensive options on any other car. Price comparisons of the lowest MSRP ignores the cost of an equivalent configured car. As their manufacturing efficiencies have gone down, the Camry hybrid premium is only $1,500. But the biased article will seek out the maximum hybrid premium vehicles.

I'll offer a few suggestions, see bolded words in your paragraphs above. I think wording that alerts a reader to consider whether a comparison used such a tactic may be more appropriate. Saying invariably and never paints with a wide brush.


The first paragraph could alternatively read:


No hybrid for sale today has a manual transmission yet frequently a manual transmission or automatic with a manual mode is use for the comparison. For direct comparison an automatic transmission should be used, studies that don't are suspect.

The second paragraph could alternatively read:

Some comparison tests are limited to a strictly highway test, often at speeds above 65 mph. This prevents the hybrid drive train from contribute to the vehicle performance and efficiency. This test won't reflective the effects of stop-and-go driving where the hybrid's benefits are primarily focused.

The initial reaction reading the first few points were that you're saying all comparisons are being stacked or biased instead of somehow wording it as a warning or factor to consider when reading a comparison.

As for the Camry hybrid premium of $1,500, that indeed reflects the difference between a Hybrid and XLE ($1,475 actually) but as I mentioned on the other post the actual price paid may be considerably different. For one the XLE has a standard moonroof, which is a $940 option on the hybrid. The only other differences I see from Kelly Blue Book is the Hybrid has a rear window defrost that isn't available on the XLE and the XLE has passenger side electric seat which isn't available on the Hybrid. Currently the KBB doesn't have data on the actual sale prices that people are paying for the 2007 models. There is data available for the XLE showing that the average purchaser paid $1884 under MSRP for the 2006 model. One thing I found surprising is that the price increase for the XLE from 2006 to 2007 was $1,630, or a 7% increase? A more accurate premium could be 1475 + 940 + 1884 = $4299. From the TCH section of greenhybrid I didn't find much on what owners paid, but IMO assuming that the Hybrids are selling for straight MSRP is conservative. There were mentions of rejected deals from dealerships asking 1-4k over MSRP, presumably there are willing buyers.


Please take my comments as constructive, that's how they are intended.
 
  #4  
Old 07-10-2006, 06:08 AM
bwilson4web's Avatar
Engineering first
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Location: Huntsville, AL
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Thumbs up Re: SKEPTICS: How to answer

Originally Posted by worthywads
. . . [GOOD STUFF, snipped]

Please take my comments as constructive, that's how they are intended.
I do and appreciate the help. Finding a good writer is hard, finding a good editor is nearly impossible. THANKS!!!

I'll go back and edit the first posting to incorporate your suggestions. But I'm still not sure how to handle the 'hybrid premium.'

The laws of supply and demand are not linear and we've seen great differences depending upon allocation and local demand. Perhaps the best approach is to start with comparative MSRP followed by a second paragraph that covers the 'dealer mark-up' 'waiting lists' and other effects of demand being so much greater than supply. Let me think about it and try a variation later this evening. The key is to be fair and give prospective buyers a clue to how to approach getting a good hybrid deal.

Once again, THANK YOU!

Bob Wilson
 
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