RIP: "Dust-to-Dust"
#1
07-26-2008, 03:19 PM
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Huntsville, AL
Posts: 5,613
RIP: "Dust-to-Dust"
In April 2006, CNW Marketing published their "Dust-to-Dust" report and have been updating and defending it every year since. Then comes this nugget:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...s+%2B+analysis
I'd wonder about their next update if events hadn't already overtaken them.
Bob Wilson
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...s+%2B+analysis
...
Art Spinella, president of CNW Marketing Research, estimates that this year alone the industry will lose $4.7 billion on sales of previously leased SUVs. "This caught everyone by surprise," he says. And it's a problem that will keep on giving because many automakers only recently started to write fewer leases. So there are plenty of newly leased gas-guzzlers out there, some with terms as long as 39 months. Spinella sees $10 billion more in lost value as thousands more SUVs come off lease in 2009 and 2010.
When automakers calculated lease terms three years ago, they assumed the cars and SUVs would be worth much more once the lease ended than they are. But resale values on large SUVs have fallen 13% from March through May, with some pickups dropping more than 20%, according to Manheim, the nation's largest used-vehicle wholesaler. Knowing the value has plunged, consumers aren't extending leases on many SUVS and aren't keen to buy the vehicles outright.
...
Art Spinella, president of CNW Marketing Research, estimates that this year alone the industry will lose $4.7 billion on sales of previously leased SUVs. "This caught everyone by surprise," he says. And it's a problem that will keep on giving because many automakers only recently started to write fewer leases. So there are plenty of newly leased gas-guzzlers out there, some with terms as long as 39 months. Spinella sees $10 billion more in lost value as thousands more SUVs come off lease in 2009 and 2010.
When automakers calculated lease terms three years ago, they assumed the cars and SUVs would be worth much more once the lease ended than they are. But resale values on large SUVs have fallen 13% from March through May, with some pickups dropping more than 20%, according to Manheim, the nation's largest used-vehicle wholesaler. Knowing the value has plunged, consumers aren't extending leases on many SUVS and aren't keen to buy the vehicles outright.
...
Bob Wilson
Last edited by bwilson4web; 07-26-2008 at 03:22 PM.
#2
07-26-2008, 04:47 PM
Re: RIP: "Dust-to-Dust"
They created these behemoths and made fat profits from them for 10 years. Now they can figure how to get rid of them once they own 'em again. If I were GM or Ford, I'd absolutely stop building every V8 SUV and make half the V6s. There is plenty of used inventory to satisfy demand for the next 5 years.
#3
07-27-2008, 04:40 AM
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Huntsville, AL
Posts: 5,613
Re: RIP: "Dust-to-Dust"
CNW Marketing decided to use "dollars" instead energy units like "Joules", "Kilowatt hours" or "Ergs" that traditional lifetime studies use. But with gasoline costing twice what it did back then, the value of their study has evaporated. The cost of fuel alone, many times exceeding their projected cost difference, has made their claims mute:
http://www.thecarconnection.com/arti...oding-the-myth
By choosing dollars, a unit that floats with inflation, CNW would need to do a massive adjustment of their report ... inventing a special "dollar" or some sort of retroactive 'inflation adjustment.' But that won't fix their earlier claims but rather look more like 'moving the goal posts.'
I did check their latest 'update' and sure enough, they now put the Prius in the 'middle of the pack.' But the rankings remain terribly skewed and built upon false assumptions that the Prius won't last over 109,000 miles. In fact all hybrids were given an arbitrary short life compared to their gas equivalent.
The CNW report was also built on the assumption that a hybrid would be a "secondary car" which high gas prices have all but demolished:
But this was true when the report first came out. CNW Marketing would have us believe that given a Ford Escape and Ford Escape hybrid, the owner would deliberately choose to drive the gas-only model instead of the more affordable to operate hybrid. It made no sense then and $4+ gas mocks it today.
Like the global warming skeptics, those who decided to retain some standing as scientists, it is time for CNW Marketing for whatever reason they choose, to announce their report is no longer valid. I do not care what reason(s) they choose and in fact I don't really care if they do the right thing. Events have moved beyond December 2005 when they first published their nonsense. To regain any credibility, they need to bury "Dust-to-Dust" and get back to their core business, counting inventory on dealer lots.
Bob Wilson
...
To compare, the Toyota Prius involves $3.25 per mile in energy costs over its lifetime, according to CNW, while several full-size SUVs scored lower. A Dodge Viper involves only $2.18 in energy per mile over its lifetime. The Range Rover Sport costs $2.42, and the Cadillac Escalade costs $2.75.
...
To compare, the Toyota Prius involves $3.25 per mile in energy costs over its lifetime, according to CNW, while several full-size SUVs scored lower. A Dodge Viper involves only $2.18 in energy per mile over its lifetime. The Range Rover Sport costs $2.42, and the Cadillac Escalade costs $2.75.
...
By choosing dollars, a unit that floats with inflation, CNW would need to do a massive adjustment of their report ... inventing a special "dollar" or some sort of retroactive 'inflation adjustment.' But that won't fix their earlier claims but rather look more like 'moving the goal posts.'
I did check their latest 'update' and sure enough, they now put the Prius in the 'middle of the pack.' But the rankings remain terribly skewed and built upon false assumptions that the Prius won't last over 109,000 miles. In fact all hybrids were given an arbitrary short life compared to their gas equivalent.
The CNW report was also built on the assumption that a hybrid would be a "secondary car" which high gas prices have all but demolished:
Originally Posted by ibid
...
But Toyota also says that the study uses an unrealistically low estimated lifetime for hybrids, and that there's no data to support its assumptions in this. For instance, according to the study the average Prius is expected to go 109,000 miles over its lifetime, while a Hummer H1 would go 379,000 miles. CNW says about hybrids: “…these are generally secondary vehicles in a household OR they are driven in restricted or short range environments such as college campuses or retirement neighborhoods.”
...
But Toyota also says that the study uses an unrealistically low estimated lifetime for hybrids, and that there's no data to support its assumptions in this. For instance, according to the study the average Prius is expected to go 109,000 miles over its lifetime, while a Hummer H1 would go 379,000 miles. CNW says about hybrids: “…these are generally secondary vehicles in a household OR they are driven in restricted or short range environments such as college campuses or retirement neighborhoods.”
...
Like the global warming skeptics, those who decided to retain some standing as scientists, it is time for CNW Marketing for whatever reason they choose, to announce their report is no longer valid. I do not care what reason(s) they choose and in fact I don't really care if they do the right thing. Events have moved beyond December 2005 when they first published their nonsense. To regain any credibility, they need to bury "Dust-to-Dust" and get back to their core business, counting inventory on dealer lots.
Bob Wilson
Last edited by bwilson4web; 07-27-2008 at 05:25 AM.
#4
07-29-2008, 01:24 PM
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Huntsville, AL
Posts: 5,613
Re: RIP: "Dust-to-Dust"
I just stumbled across this Slate article:
http://www.slate.com/id/2194989/
This is what an energy based, life-time study looks like ... something CNW Marketing remains clueless about.
Bob Wilson
http://www.slate.com/id/2194989/
Originally Posted by Brendan I. Koerner
...
The best guess regarding the Prius' energy consumption during assembly comes from sustainability engineer Pablo Päster, a Lantern favorite. He used Argonne National Laboratory's GREET model—which takes into account the energy intensiveness of producing glass, steel, copper, and other critical materials—to calculate that manufacturing a Prius requires about 113 million British thermal units. (Päster also guessed that manufacturing the hybrid version of a Toyota Highlander uses 155 million BTUs, vs. 107 million BTUs for the standard Highlander.)
...
According to the federal government's 2008 fuel economy guide (PDF), a Prius averages 46.5 miles per gallon (assuming half of a driver's time is spent on city streets and half on the highway). Beyond 172,500 miles, then, the Prius will consume 3,710 gallons of gas. Each gallon contains approximately 124,000 BTUs of energy, so that translates into 460 million BTUs' worth of burned fuel. Add in the production energy, and the new Prius is responsible for a grand total of 573 million BTUs over its lifetime (not including disposal costs).
A Corolla with an automatic transmission, by contrast, averages 30.5 mpg—more than eight miles per gallon better than the average car on America's roads. Over the vehicle's lifetime, that translates into 5,656 gallons of gas containing more than 701 million BTUs of energy. Since the Corolla we're considering is used, we won't add to that total by factoring in production energy.
The Prius is thus the clear winner in this matchup ...
The best guess regarding the Prius' energy consumption during assembly comes from sustainability engineer Pablo Päster, a Lantern favorite. He used Argonne National Laboratory's GREET model—which takes into account the energy intensiveness of producing glass, steel, copper, and other critical materials—to calculate that manufacturing a Prius requires about 113 million British thermal units. (Päster also guessed that manufacturing the hybrid version of a Toyota Highlander uses 155 million BTUs, vs. 107 million BTUs for the standard Highlander.)
...
According to the federal government's 2008 fuel economy guide (PDF), a Prius averages 46.5 miles per gallon (assuming half of a driver's time is spent on city streets and half on the highway). Beyond 172,500 miles, then, the Prius will consume 3,710 gallons of gas. Each gallon contains approximately 124,000 BTUs of energy, so that translates into 460 million BTUs' worth of burned fuel. Add in the production energy, and the new Prius is responsible for a grand total of 573 million BTUs over its lifetime (not including disposal costs).
A Corolla with an automatic transmission, by contrast, averages 30.5 mpg—more than eight miles per gallon better than the average car on America's roads. Over the vehicle's lifetime, that translates into 5,656 gallons of gas containing more than 701 million BTUs of energy. Since the Corolla we're considering is used, we won't add to that total by factoring in production energy.
The Prius is thus the clear winner in this matchup ...
Bob Wilson
#5
07-31-2008, 11:32 PM
Re: RIP: "Dust-to-Dust"
I just stumbled across this Slate article:
http://www.slate.com/id/2194989/
This is what an energy based, life-time study looks like ... something CNW Marketing remains clueless about.
Bob Wilson
http://www.slate.com/id/2194989/
This is what an energy based, life-time study looks like ... something CNW Marketing remains clueless about.
Bob Wilson
If you use a marketing company to do a scientific study, you will always end up with a completely useless study. Their name says it all CNW Marketing, all they did was market an opinion they were paid to do.
I'm just disappointed in all the BS media that would pick up this report and publish it. Any respectable media outlet would never use a MARKETING firm's "scientific" data to publish. Just actually glancing through the report shows huge gaping gaps and it definitely don't even pass the gut feel/BS test.
A simple couple of examples are:
CNW claims selling hybrids are more expensive (but all hybrids are sold by existing dealerships with existing sales people). Yet Hummer opened new dealers with new sales people, yet somehow their sales energy cost was less????? Also hybrids outsold Hummers by a wide margin for a couple of years now.
They claim a Prius' tires cost more and don't last as long as a normal econo box car. Yet they use the same tires in the case of Toyota???????? How does that work?
The list of BS just go on, and there was never any data provided to back up any of the claims in the study. Reason is simply because it is all fabricated with no basis in reality. Almost as if written by an Enron bookkeeper
The only solice I have is that folks will point to that as Art and CNW's shame for years to come. Maybe time to alert the media that published this nonsense to revisit it scientifically again, since there is now some actual data to point out this flawed propaganda piece by CNW. (Basically we need to rub the egg on Spinella's face in properly).
#6
08-01-2008, 03:04 AM
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Huntsville, AL
Posts: 5,613
Re: RIP: "Dust-to-Dust"
All good points but I'm leaning towards an internal GM put-up because the first CNW Marketing press release came out in December 2005, about 3-4 months before GM killed the H1 in April 2006. I suspect it was an attempt to somehow boost H1 sales ... at least the timing, if I've got it right, suggests that was the case.
Tires are another interesting problem but not because of CNW Marketing. All of the after-market tires, the replacements of the OEMs, have been pretty lame. You are right that they are the same as ordinary tires in large part because:
Bob Wilson
Tires are another interesting problem but not because of CNW Marketing. All of the after-market tires, the replacements of the OEMs, have been pretty lame. You are right that they are the same as ordinary tires in large part because:
- lack of low-rolling resistance tracking and promotion - I only have a two year old Consumer Reports study and it has no "metrics", just a 1-5 scale
- abysmal wheel alignment services - if it can't be done with a set screw, front toe for the Prius, it isn't done. Rear-wheel shims or camber adjustment bolts take special effort and the local tire stores remain abysmally ignorant of what it takes. It is only because of the 50 psi pressure caps that they don't bleed my tires down
Bob Wilson
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