The global climate has not been stable for thousands of years. The Tang Dynasty was destroyed by climate change just over a thousand years ago and there were no unnatural emissions to blame for it. Climate change will occur regardless of human activities; it is the nature of the climate to change. Anyone that examines the known information concerning the planet's climate over the past four point six billion years knows that it will change and that the climate will range anywhere from freezing cold to scorching hot, regardless of human activities.

We have a thread regarding the demise of the Tang Dynasty as a result of climate change.

 

The Tang Dynasty is pre-modern civilization that is very dependent on agriculture...anything affecting their agriculture besides climate change could have destroyed it.

What's scary is that even with our wonderful technological know how, a sudden climate change could change much of economic/policital/social order of modern civilization. The US (believe it or not) is dependent on world economy and social order. A severe enough shift that effects other parts of the world will have dire consequences for the US as well.

The fear is that human activily will cause this, in a much much faster timescale than even our modern world can handle adequately.

 

Don't count on oil prices falling much further.

Opec is willing and able to throttle back production, which will keep oil prices from going lower, and will in fact raise them.

Also, note that oil supplies in the US are down, not up. This latest drop is a result of warm weather in the NE, where lots of oil is used for heating. Unusually warm weather is doing more to commodities traders, causing them to drop the price of oil. That is an artificial, fleeting response, and will soon disappear.

Oil will do nothing but go up in the long run.

Harry

 

Earthling's post reminded me that we need to return to the topic. You may have the last word. It is more important that we stay on topic than it is that we argue off topic subjects.

Cartels are highly reliant on the integrity of their members. If all members cut production equally and the total production controlled by the cartel is near monopoly status, they work, but if one member was to act on the idea that they could make much more money by secretly selling oil behind the other members' backs, the cartel quickly fails to function as the other members learn of what happened.

So the main question of whether or not oil prices will go up or down is not whether or not OPEC will cut production, but whether or not OPEC's members have integrity.

 

we have released copious amounts of carbon dioxide that was previously sequestered. We currently have CO2 levels higher than have been seen since man walked the earth. We are going to see a rise several orders of magnitude in our life time if nothing is done.

oil prices need to go up. There is no room or fortitude in the current system to address the global issues being caused by oil. Everything from destabilization of governments to the tampering of the very atmosphere, ocean and water we rely on to survive.

I just want to see a fair representation of the actual costs associated with releasing previously sequestered carbon dioxide.

Lets adopt Kyoto, address the inadequacies of the CAFE standards and impose tarrifs and taxes to stimulate alternatives.

 

Your last point has no scientific backing and is purely a matter of opinion.

Progress that is positive for the atmosphere or that you perceive to be positive for the atmosphere must occur as an aid to the economy without harming it. If you continue to insist on the economic equivalent of a nuclear war, you will accomplish the very opposite of what you want to accomplish and you will have caused it. You must consider other people's needs and desires and not only what you perceive them to be. If you do not, you condemn yourself to live a very sad and miserable life, having accomplished the opposite of what you sought to accomplish.

If you are to avoid this fate that you place upon yourself, you must do the following:

1. Be considerate of the economy and stop trying to raise oil prices
2. Consider the standard of living and ensure that all of your efforts improve it
3. Acknowledge that climate change will occur regardless of human activities

I can continue to list more things, but these are the three that you must do the most if you are to avoid the irony of all ironies, contributing to the thing that you sought to prevent.

 

ok back to the topic...somewhat...

The cartel really is a nomopoly...it not even a fair market game there anymore. We are so hooked on oil, and they are so powerful, there's no way to curb oil use without doing major dammage to our economy (the world's economy for that matter). But there is a way to ween ourselves from it, and as twuelfing sugests, can also be used to fund the weening.

If you let the cartel dictate prices, they'll keep us up hooked until their well runs dry.

 

CO2 is rising, but "several orders of magnitude" isn't likely. One order of magnitude is 10 times more, 2 orders of magnitude is 100 times more. Sciencists think we've gone from around 0.028% to 0.038% and may end up at 0.065% by 2100, you're suggesting a rise to 2.8%.

That's the big question, what are the actual costs of our releasing co2? It could be actual costs are a net benefit.

Apparently this rather warm east coast winter has been beneficial to people trying to warm their house, or sleep on the street, and has dropped the price of gasoline for everyone.

 

My point is that OPEC does not dictate the prices and maintaining a cartel within a free market economy without the aid of government interference is impossible.

As for curbing oil usage without damaging the economy, I believe that I posted a gasoline guzzler tax suggestion that would accomplish just that earlier in this thread.

 

I would agree, if the US was the only market for oil. With double-digit growth in China and India, the US is most certainly not the only market for oil. Oil is a global commodity and the price responds to global demands. High growth rates in China and India guarantee high demand for oil in the future, which gurantees we will not see cheap oil again. In the road construction industry, China's growth has caused a price increase in Portland cement, asphalt, oil, and steel. So it isn't just oil that has gone up.

I agree. That is what the Europeans have done, and is what we should be doing. We could debate how much tax, but keeping gasoline cheap only damages the environment, leads to early depletion of the world's oil, and puts off reforms that would give us more fuel-efficient vehicles. The health of the planet really is at stake.

Harry