I agree that living closer to work is a great idea. I also know that in our mobile society as it stands that a sea change to local community, local work, and local play will take time, probably a lot of it. It will also be heavily resisted for a long time in my estimation. Until then using less fuel over the same number of miles driven is a start.

 

I am always amazed at how clean the oil is in my car just prior to an oil change. Most cars the oil has a considerable amout of carbon and other impurities in it. My Camry Hybrid's oil looks almost new after 5,000 miles on it. I plan to start an oil analysis program soon and as soon as the 36,000 warranty is out I plan to go to extended drain oil changes. I won't be suprised if I can go 20,000 mile between oil changes with how the engine runs. Unfortunatly, that will still be every 6 months with the way I drive.

I am one of the people that drives way too much. Unfortunatly my office is 60 miels away from my home, and moving closer to work won't do us any good as my wife works in the opposite diection. If I am closer she is further. Right now I am driving about 35,000 to 40,000 miles a year. At this rate I will know if the battery will really last the life of the car or if I will have lost on the battery gamble. For me that was the biggest decision. If the battery lasts more than 150,000 miles I will be financially ahead, but if it fails and I have to buy a new one at $2,000 I will have lost all my savings by buying a hybrid and broken even with a normal ICE car. But with the hybrid, the oil companies don't get that $2,000 and a manufacturer does. I would still rather keep the money out of the hands of the oil companies and help stretch our oil supply to last as long as possible. I don't think we will run out of oil soon, but there is a finite amout of it available to use.

 

Well, dazed and confused is not a great state of mind.

Even when I was working, I never drove more than 15,000 m/yr which is pretty good for SoCal.

Last year I was in Vancouver, BC and I was surprised to see a Prius taxi. I understand now that there's a lot of Prius cabs in Vanc., so that may be a clue as to how the battery pack is going to go.

Yep. I've gone now to over 3,000 miles on an oil change and still find the oil very, very clean.

 

The thought of getting a car never occurred to me until I came to the States for school in 1994.

As previous posts indicate, in order to be mobile - go to school, shopping, work and have a life - you have to have a car. Unlike most Asian countries such as Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore etc, true, those are "tiny islands" at the edge of Pacific Ocean, but the public transportation network - bus, subway, light rail, train, etc, are so well established. There is no need to drive, and it's generally safe for any female to walk on the street at 8PM on her own to get a gal of milk from 7-11 around the corner. The last bus usually runs all the way close to midnight.

Here, in the US, people enjoy the "big open space", therefore, the price is to pay for the car, the gas and everything else all together to keep it running.

 

I recently sat down and ran a few numbers for my own personal entertainment. At the time, I had about 23,000 miles on my 2005 HCH. My total FE for the lifetime of the car is 48.8 mpg, starting from the minute I rolled it off the lot with 8 miles on the odometer.
[side note: This includes several months of break-in and learning a few hypermiling techniques and a couple of ill-judged roadtrips with my mother driving. For the last 1400 miles, I've gotten 55.2 mpg, but it takes a lot of good FE later to make up for a little bad FE early in the life of a car, so I'm satisfied but not thrilled with my lifetime number.]

My figures are these:
Driving 23,000 miles at 48.8 mpg burned 471.3 gallons of gas.
If I'd been in my mom's little Prizm, or something comparable, and getting around 32 mpg, I would have burned 718.75 gallons of gas.
If I'd been in an SUV (or perhaps my dad's station wagon, which used to get about 18 but is worse now), I might have gotten about 15 mpg, and burned 1533.33 gallons.

Savings depends on what you estimate gas prices were/will be. If gas averaged $3/gal, the fuel costs are:

HCH (48.8): $1413.93
Prizm (32): $2156.25
SUV (15): $4600.00

If you assume gas was only $2.50, the costs are
HCH (48.8): $1178.28
Prizm (32): $1796.88
SUV (15) $3833.33

Looking ahead to my next 23,000 miles, I think it's well within the realm of possibility to think we might be paying $4 for gas. I filled up yesterday at $3.39, but I saw prices as high as $3.59 and it's going up. So for the sake of contrast, at $4, the numbers are

HCH (48.8): $1885.24
Prizm (32): $2875.00
SUV (15): $6133.33

Basically, I save at least $620 in gas over even my mom's very efficient little sedan in a best case, $2.50 scenario for the next year and a half or so, and compared to a neighbor in an SUV, I'm saving as much as $4,200 in that period if gas prices rise. I know this isn't an apples-to-apples comparison- it wasn't supposed to be. But these numbers make me happy anyway. It makes me feel like buying my hybrid was a really smart thing to do, and that I am seeing and probably will continue to see clear financial benefits from it.

 

I like your analysis but would suggest figuring the annual savings and then using a reasonable number for the number of years. I suspect you'll find the projected, life-time savings will be a nice number. For good measure, use a linear approximation of gasoline price (even though it is exponential as the shortages become more acute.)

Bob Wilson