It's good to drive a hybrid - future fuel cost
#1
03-31-2005, 11:13 AM
It's good to drive a hybrid - future fuel cost
LONDON (Reuters) -
Oil hurtled back up to $56 a barrel on Thursday as Goldman Sachs bank, the biggest trader of energy derivatives, said prices could ultimately surge all the way above $100.
The Goldman Sachs report strengthened gains driven by a fall in U.S. gasoline stocks and fresh buying from investment funds as the dollar weakened.
U.S. light crude jumped $2.11, or 3.9 percent, to a high of $56.10 a barrel, within $1.50 of a $57.60 record high struck on March 17.
Benchmark Brent futures leapt $2.76 to $54.85, catching up with Wednesday's late recovery on the New York market, which this week closes an hour later than the London exchange.
Oil prices have climbed around 25 percent this year as signals that rapid demand growth in emerging economies China and India will strain world supply ignited heavy buying from big-money funds.
Goldman Sachs bank (NYSE:GS - news) said in a research report on Thursday that oil markets have entered a "super-spike" period that could see prices rising as high as $105 a barrel.
"We believe oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a "super spike" period -- a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return," Goldman's analysts wrote.
Goldman's Global Investment Research note also raised the bank's 2005 and 2006 NYMEX crude price forecasts to $50 and $55 respectively, from $41 and $40.
These forecasts sit at the top of a table of predictions from 25 analysts, consultants and government bodies surveyed by Reuters .
U.S. oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have averaged $50.02 per barrel so far in 2005 up from a record $41.48 last year.
The U.S. government reported on Wednesday that U.S. gasoline supplies fell 2.9 million barrels to 214.4 million barrels last week, the fourth decline in a row ahead of summer when consumption peaks.
Gasoline demand has been running two percent higher than last year in the past four weeks, despite record prices at the pump, making the 6.3 percent inventory surplus versus last year's level less comforting than it would appear.
Also encouraging gains, the dollar -- the currency of global oil trade -- retreated further on Thursday from a five-month high against the yen.
A weaker dollar has encouraged funds to switch money from treasury markets into commodities, as well as insulating fuel consumption in non-dollar economies from the impact of higher crude prices.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its formal output ceiling by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 27.5 million bpd in mid-March to pump up second-quarter global stocks, creating a cushion for anticipated year-end demand.
The Goldman Sachs report strengthened gains driven by a fall in U.S. gasoline stocks and fresh buying from investment funds as the dollar weakened.
U.S. light crude jumped $2.11, or 3.9 percent, to a high of $56.10 a barrel, within $1.50 of a $57.60 record high struck on March 17.
Benchmark Brent futures leapt $2.76 to $54.85, catching up with Wednesday's late recovery on the New York market, which this week closes an hour later than the London exchange.
Oil prices have climbed around 25 percent this year as signals that rapid demand growth in emerging economies China and India will strain world supply ignited heavy buying from big-money funds.
Goldman Sachs bank (NYSE:GS - news) said in a research report on Thursday that oil markets have entered a "super-spike" period that could see prices rising as high as $105 a barrel.
"We believe oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a "super spike" period -- a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return," Goldman's analysts wrote.
Goldman's Global Investment Research note also raised the bank's 2005 and 2006 NYMEX crude price forecasts to $50 and $55 respectively, from $41 and $40.
These forecasts sit at the top of a table of predictions from 25 analysts, consultants and government bodies surveyed by Reuters .
U.S. oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have averaged $50.02 per barrel so far in 2005 up from a record $41.48 last year.
The U.S. government reported on Wednesday that U.S. gasoline supplies fell 2.9 million barrels to 214.4 million barrels last week, the fourth decline in a row ahead of summer when consumption peaks.
Gasoline demand has been running two percent higher than last year in the past four weeks, despite record prices at the pump, making the 6.3 percent inventory surplus versus last year's level less comforting than it would appear.
Also encouraging gains, the dollar -- the currency of global oil trade -- retreated further on Thursday from a five-month high against the yen.
A weaker dollar has encouraged funds to switch money from treasury markets into commodities, as well as insulating fuel consumption in non-dollar economies from the impact of higher crude prices.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its formal output ceiling by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 27.5 million bpd in mid-March to pump up second-quarter global stocks, creating a cushion for anticipated year-end demand.
Last edited by Jason; 03-31-2005 at 12:15 PM.
#2
04-04-2005, 07:46 PM
Re: It's good to drive a hybrid - future fuel cost
For a good overview of what's going on with oil, and the future of it, check out this documentary:
http://www.endofsuburbia.com
For those of you who are a little more technically inclined, you may be able to download it from here:
http://www.ed2k.dyndns.info/page2.shtml?id=1
A bit of a wake-up call to North America
http://www.endofsuburbia.com
For those of you who are a little more technically inclined, you may be able to download it from here:
http://www.ed2k.dyndns.info/page2.shtml?id=1
A bit of a wake-up call to North America
#3
04-04-2005, 08:27 PM
Re: It's good to drive a hybrid - future fuel cost
Originally Posted by Schwa
For a good overview of what's going on with oil, and the future of it, check out this documentary:
http://www.endofsuburbia.com
http://www.endofsuburbia.com
#4
04-07-2005, 04:52 PM
Re: It's good to drive a hybrid - future fuel cost
In the short term, no I think Americans are too shortsighted to give up their suburban dream and SUVs, but this docu is looking at both near and far future possibilities, and when you consider that in 50 years or so there will be no source of abundant hydrocarbon energy our society is going to have to change. It's not a matter of how much money people will need to spend on energy to live in the suburbs, it's a matter of IF there's going to be enough energy available to sustain life in the suburbs. If there's not enough natural gas to heat your home, not enough to make electricity and no gasoline to burn in your cars, exactly how are you going to keep on living in the suburbs? I'm not saying it's impossible, or even unlikely that we'll find a way to keep on living in a similar way to the way we are now, BUT in order to do so we are going to have to change our ways, energy reserves are being depleted and society will have to deal with the fact that we've been using the afterburners for too long and we're about to hit the point of no return. The world only gets ONE change to use this massive hydrocarbon energy reserve, and right now I think we're being so wasteful and uncareful that we're setting ourselves up for an unnecessary crash of civilization that could be otherwise avoided and mitigated if we collectively smarten up.
When people start paying a more reasonably high price for energy (3-4x what it is now) then it will start to become obvious to most people what the situation is, but right now we're like frogs in the slowly warming pot of water on the stove. Some people get it, and they are the ones driving hybrids, driving slower and NOT driving, but we are the minority at this point.
When people start paying a more reasonably high price for energy (3-4x what it is now) then it will start to become obvious to most people what the situation is, but right now we're like frogs in the slowly warming pot of water on the stove. Some people get it, and they are the ones driving hybrids, driving slower and NOT driving, but we are the minority at this point.
#5
04-07-2005, 05:42 PM
Re: It's good to drive a hybrid - future fuel cost
People chose to live out in the countryside even back before cars existed. It's a lifestyle choice, and people make such choices regarless of other factors. I stand by my statement that people will give up pretty much everything else they own before they'll give up their homes. That's just how it works.
#6
04-07-2005, 05:48 PM
Re: It's good to drive a hybrid - future fuel cost
Originally Posted by AZCivic
The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.
#7
04-08-2005, 11:43 PM
Re: It's good to drive a hybrid - future fuel cost
Originally Posted by AZCivic
People chose to live out in the countryside even back before cars existed. It's a lifestyle choice, and people make such choices regarless of other factors. I stand by my statement that people will give up pretty much everything else they own before they'll give up their homes. That's just how it works.
It only became popular to live in the outskirts of cities once the invention of cars came around. I agree with you that people will have a very very hard time letting go of the suburban American dream, and will most likely give up everything else before they give up living far from other urban populations, but that's just it! We are (as a society) collectively wasting the only chance we have to make something useful out of this massive energy reserve we've found. We are hopelessly addicted to individuality and the suburban dream, causing us to consume energy and resources like there's no tomorrow, literally.
It's a mind-boggling and confusing issue, and I admit I'm locked into it too, living in the suburbs is nice, and really suits me perfectly, but I think it's one of the main reasons North Americans consume so much, and we will eventually have an economic and possibly social collapse when the **** starts to hit the fan. The best thing we can do right now is to focus our energy away from war, and acquiring the last of the hydrocarbon reserves and into developping sustainable energy resources and re-organizing life so that we can live inside our ecological footprint, rather than living WAY outside it as we are all doing right now.
There will always be some suburban dwellers, that's for sure, they can live however they like, but the prediction is that there will be a dramatic increase in the costs associated with living in suburbia as compared to the costs of living inside a city where everything is within walking or otherwise low energy consumption mode of transport. Right now suburbia is only affordable because the energy used to move people around at high enough speeds and distances is dirt cheap as compared to what it really should be if you compare it to other things that are affected by inflation over time. The reason it appears to be rising so fast right now is because it's been held artificially low to promote growth and economic expansion. Now the prices are starting to catch up to the inflation that would have affected it if we didn't persue such drastic measures to keep the price of oil so low.
I think suburban life will look a LOT different in 10 years and in 50 years will be looking like the mistake some people are starting to realize it is now... But who knows what will happen, the military and corporate industry are getting ready for something, but they won't say exactly what.
#8
04-09-2005, 12:53 AM
Re: It's good to drive a hybrid - future fuel cost
I don't think so. I think we as a society will adapt. We will make commuter rails go out to the suburbs, expand mass transit, work on more efficient cars and/or alternative fueled cars.
The hybrid movement going on now is the start of this adaption. If push came to shove I would bet we would have alcohol running cars in no time. Do you know how much grain rots every year because its not used?
There are lots of alternatives and the only reason we aren't using them is because they aren't profitable for some company to produce.
The hybrid movement going on now is the start of this adaption. If push came to shove I would bet we would have alcohol running cars in no time. Do you know how much grain rots every year because its not used?
There are lots of alternatives and the only reason we aren't using them is because they aren't profitable for some company to produce.
#9
04-09-2005, 09:07 AM
Re: It's good to drive a hybrid - future fuel cost
We certainly will adapt, and in the near future. Someone please correct me if i am wrong, but i remember reading a exerpt from something said by the Bush administration that they are planning on pushing alternate fuels, that is, ethanol, methanol, and corn oil (biodiesle)...most cars will already run on these (w/ some exception in the biodiesle).
#10
04-09-2005, 10:20 AM
Ridiculously Active Enthusiast
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Atlanta, Ga
Posts: 1,797
Re: It's good to drive a hybrid - future fuel cost
Yes, people, industry and government certainly do adapt for these changes.
Then I moved to Suburbia....well not exatly but a way past Suburbia into the country side and bought the best FE car I could.
Industry is changing- Yes they continue to produce wasteful cars and people buy them....but only a few years ago you couldn't buy any car that got much over 50MPG, let alone 100.
I've heard with the higher gas prices even the largest vehicles are beginning to remain on the lot while hybrid sales are multiplying.
Government is changing- Yes the tax payers sponsored General Motors EV was scrapped but who knows the next generation will likely develop with some of that experience. Perhaps it already began with today's hybrids. Stevo has touched on some other points.
When I was much younger in my 20's I lived in the City of Minneapolis for a couple of years. I was shocked to see the drunks on the streets, all the pollution, litter, corner drug dealers, ladies of the night and worse.
We continually hear of the problems with inner city schools, violence and all of those things. I commute into Atlanta and it's all still there.
We would never, ever raise our family in such an environment no matter what the cost or sacrifices may be.
90% Of my life was spent living in the suburbs. Our family has moved out of Suburbia and into the countryside where the cows moo the roosters crow and the eagles still soar.
My old 17MPG car wore out so I bought a new one. See the MPG banners below.
Yes, things are changing.
Life continues, it's not a doom and gloom future of hardship and chaos.
We have a bright and exiting future to look forward to.
Then I moved to Suburbia....well not exatly but a way past Suburbia into the country side and bought the best FE car I could.
Industry is changing- Yes they continue to produce wasteful cars and people buy them....but only a few years ago you couldn't buy any car that got much over 50MPG, let alone 100.
I've heard with the higher gas prices even the largest vehicles are beginning to remain on the lot while hybrid sales are multiplying.
Government is changing- Yes the tax payers sponsored General Motors EV was scrapped but who knows the next generation will likely develop with some of that experience. Perhaps it already began with today's hybrids. Stevo has touched on some other points.
When I was much younger in my 20's I lived in the City of Minneapolis for a couple of years. I was shocked to see the drunks on the streets, all the pollution, litter, corner drug dealers, ladies of the night and worse.
We continually hear of the problems with inner city schools, violence and all of those things. I commute into Atlanta and it's all still there.
We would never, ever raise our family in such an environment no matter what the cost or sacrifices may be.
90% Of my life was spent living in the suburbs. Our family has moved out of Suburbia and into the countryside where the cows moo the roosters crow and the eagles still soar.
My old 17MPG car wore out so I bought a new one. See the MPG banners below.
Yes, things are changing.
Life continues, it's not a doom and gloom future of hardship and chaos.
We have a bright and exiting future to look forward to.
Last edited by Hot_Georgia_2004; 04-09-2005 at 10:28 AM.
