Katrina on her way
#11
08-28-2005, 12:34 PM
Re: Katrina on her way
This hurricane could be terrible if it hits New Orleans. I hope the dome they're using for an emergency shelter is high and strong. I don't remember sustained winds of 175mph outside of Pacific typhoons.
Don't underestimate the destructive power of the rain. The 50'th anniversary of Hurricanes Connie and Diane (Flood of 1955) in S. New England was last week. Not much wind but 25 to 30 inches of rain in a week. Many deaths in CT. The street we moved out of a year before had water 10 feet high with a strong river current -- one or two houses washed away and one death on that street.
Everybody in it's path: be careful and get out of the way!
--Walter
Don't underestimate the destructive power of the rain. The 50'th anniversary of Hurricanes Connie and Diane (Flood of 1955) in S. New England was last week. Not much wind but 25 to 30 inches of rain in a week. Many deaths in CT. The street we moved out of a year before had water 10 feet high with a strong river current -- one or two houses washed away and one death on that street.
Everybody in it's path: be careful and get out of the way!
--Walter
#12
08-28-2005, 02:55 PM
Re: Katrina on her way
Hi All:
___She settled down a bit (175 down to 165 mph) fortunately. The item I am watching is that the eye’s barometric pressure continues to fall (26.64 vs. 26.78 as of the last report)! I hope this thing tails off for the sake of those that have not been able to get out of her path.
04:00 PM
____Did anyone see the note about “WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.”? Where do you hide as there could be 10 - 20’ of water at street level in some locations?
___Good Luck to those with no way out of the New Orleans area …
___Wayne R. Gerdes
___Waynegerdes@earthlink.net
___She settled down a bit (175 down to 165 mph) fortunately. The item I am watching is that the eye’s barometric pressure continues to fall (26.64 vs. 26.78 as of the last report)! I hope this thing tails off for the sake of those that have not been able to get out of her path.
04:00 PM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY
FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.
KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. SOUTHWEST
PASS...NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 53 MPH.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
902 MB...26.64 INCHES.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY
FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.
KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. SOUTHWEST
PASS...NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 53 MPH.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
902 MB...26.64 INCHES.
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.”? Where do you hide as there could be 10 - 20’ of water at street level in some locations?
___Good Luck to those with no way out of the New Orleans area …
___Wayne R. Gerdes
___Waynegerdes@earthlink.net
#13
08-28-2005, 04:23 PM
Re: Katrina on her way
Here's a link to an experimental GOMEX model of Katrina's effect on Gulf oil and natural gas production.
http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/...gomex_oil.html
It's not looking good. As of 4pm EST, they're projecting a 10 days or less production impact of 74.6% for oil. A production impact of 38.1% for 10 to 30 days and 17.3% for over 30 days of disruption. For natural gas, the percentages are: 55.7% short term, 21.2% medium term, and 5.9% long term.
September natural gas contracts are already up over 20% in the overnight market with high volume. The supply of natural gas for heating during this winter was already precarious enough, this is exactly the type of event that was feared.
$70+ oil tommorrow appears to be a given. This type of event (but at a larger scale) is what prompted Morgan Stanely to predict oil could superspike to $105 a barrel or more (that's $4 gallon gas). The oil supply and demand are sitting on a knifes edge lacking any extra spare capacity to soften the blow.
If New Orleans is hit, it will also hit the Port of Southern Lousiana, the United State's largest port and the fifth largest in the world. This is the key port for exporting our domestic grains to the rest of the world. Farmers and the global purchasers of our grains depend on these exports for their livelihood. Next month is the peak of U.S. harvests. If the port becomes significantly damaged and not repairable before then, an increase in agriculatural prices could be felt by the world.
Damage to refineries could be very painful as well. All the stores oil in the SPR won't be of use as gasoline without refinery capacity. Again, production capcity for refining fuels is tight, especially diesel fuel. A spike of 20-30 cents to near $3 gasoline is considered possible as well as shortages.
Here's a map of oil refineries in southern Lousiana as well as the projected path.
http://www.pannexresearch.com/katrina/LAOil.gif
Temporarily losing the Lousiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) to sediment deposits requiring dredging is also of great concern. 17% of our oil supply goes through there. Earlier this year they projected a Cat. 3 or 4 hurricane could require 3 months of dredging to allow the very large crude carriers to dock with them.
That's enough doom and gloom (without even mentioning the potential cost in lives and damage in New Orleans).
You might want to go and top off all your cars gasoline though.
EDIT: $70 barrel of oil has been reached in after-hours trading. Spot gasoline up 20 cents a gallon.
http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/...gomex_oil.html
It's not looking good. As of 4pm EST, they're projecting a 10 days or less production impact of 74.6% for oil. A production impact of 38.1% for 10 to 30 days and 17.3% for over 30 days of disruption. For natural gas, the percentages are: 55.7% short term, 21.2% medium term, and 5.9% long term.
September natural gas contracts are already up over 20% in the overnight market with high volume. The supply of natural gas for heating during this winter was already precarious enough, this is exactly the type of event that was feared.
$70+ oil tommorrow appears to be a given. This type of event (but at a larger scale) is what prompted Morgan Stanely to predict oil could superspike to $105 a barrel or more (that's $4 gallon gas). The oil supply and demand are sitting on a knifes edge lacking any extra spare capacity to soften the blow.
If New Orleans is hit, it will also hit the Port of Southern Lousiana, the United State's largest port and the fifth largest in the world. This is the key port for exporting our domestic grains to the rest of the world. Farmers and the global purchasers of our grains depend on these exports for their livelihood. Next month is the peak of U.S. harvests. If the port becomes significantly damaged and not repairable before then, an increase in agriculatural prices could be felt by the world.
Damage to refineries could be very painful as well. All the stores oil in the SPR won't be of use as gasoline without refinery capacity. Again, production capcity for refining fuels is tight, especially diesel fuel. A spike of 20-30 cents to near $3 gasoline is considered possible as well as shortages.
Here's a map of oil refineries in southern Lousiana as well as the projected path.
http://www.pannexresearch.com/katrina/LAOil.gif
Temporarily losing the Lousiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) to sediment deposits requiring dredging is also of great concern. 17% of our oil supply goes through there. Earlier this year they projected a Cat. 3 or 4 hurricane could require 3 months of dredging to allow the very large crude carriers to dock with them.
That's enough doom and gloom (without even mentioning the potential cost in lives and damage in New Orleans).
You might want to go and top off all your cars gasoline though.
EDIT: $70 barrel of oil has been reached in after-hours trading. Spot gasoline up 20 cents a gallon.
Last edited by Romir; 08-28-2005 at 04:50 PM.
#14
08-28-2005, 04:59 PM
Pretty Darn Active Enthusiast
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Posts: 335
Re: Katrina on her way
Romir what an excellent post. Thanks for all that info. It's unfortunate you seem to be so precise.
#15
08-28-2005, 05:49 PM
Re: Katrina on her way
Hi All:
___It looks like she is weakening a bit with both winds falling and a slightly higher barometric pressure in the eye! Let us hope she drops another 10 - 20 + overnight …
07:00 PM
___The Weather Channel is showing maximum sustained at 155 mph now so there has been a significant drop in the last 8 + hours. I sure hope she drops to a Cat 3 before landfall …
___Nice post Romir. I have been watching the futures as well as Peakoil.com for updates and links to the various Oil supply and discussion sites. This thing is going to hurt in more ways then one.
___Good Luck
___Wayne R. Gerdes
___Waynegerdes@earthlink.net
___It looks like she is weakening a bit with both winds falling and a slightly higher barometric pressure in the eye! Let us hope she drops another 10 - 20 + overnight …
07:00 PM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT
CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS
OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE
NEAR GROUND LEVEL.
KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
904 MB...26.69 INCHES.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT
CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS
OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE
NEAR GROUND LEVEL.
KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST.
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
904 MB...26.69 INCHES.
___Nice post Romir. I have been watching the futures as well as Peakoil.com for updates and links to the various Oil supply and discussion sites. This thing is going to hurt in more ways then one.
___Good Luck
___Wayne R. Gerdes
___Waynegerdes@earthlink.net
#16
08-28-2005, 06:24 PM
Re: Katrina on her way
Can someone post a link to watch Oil Futures and spot gasoline prices? I'm turned to TWC right now and they are giving some nice coverage.
I hope all those in the path are able to evacuate or stay safe..
I hope all those in the path are able to evacuate or stay safe..
#17
08-28-2005, 06:48 PM
Re: Katrina on her way
Originally Posted by ChesapeakeTechie
Can someone post a link to watch Oil Futures and spot gasoline prices? I'm turned to TWC right now and they are giving some nice coverage.
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
To see which are moving up the most percentage-wise:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/com.../cfutures.html
Last edited by Romir; 08-28-2005 at 07:31 PM.
#18
08-28-2005, 08:39 PM
Re: Katrina on her way
Hi All:
10:00 PM
___It looks like she is losing strength! The storm surge is sure to cause a lot of people a lot of serious trouble so say a prayer for them before heading off to bed tonight ...
___If any of you still have the opportunity, I would head on out and top off everything you have. I topped off the Mower’s, all the gas cans, the Accord, the Ranger, and the MDX tonight as the price was still at $2.699 (high but stable as of the last week just north of Chicago) but much less then it might be tomorrow afternoon looking forward ...
___Good Luck to those in her path of destruction.
___Wayne R. Gerdes
___Waynegerdes@earthlink.net
10:00 PM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA
IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT EITHER CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE
INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.
KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. A WIND GUST TO 90 MPH WAS
RECENTLY REPORTED FROM SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 904 MB...26.70 INCHES. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE
CENTER OF KATRINA VERY SHORTLY.
IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT EITHER CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE
INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.
KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. A WIND GUST TO 90 MPH WAS
RECENTLY REPORTED FROM SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 904 MB...26.70 INCHES. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE
CENTER OF KATRINA VERY SHORTLY.
___If any of you still have the opportunity, I would head on out and top off everything you have. I topped off the Mower’s, all the gas cans, the Accord, the Ranger, and the MDX tonight as the price was still at $2.699 (high but stable as of the last week just north of Chicago) but much less then it might be tomorrow afternoon looking forward ...
___Good Luck to those in her path of destruction.
___Wayne R. Gerdes
___Waynegerdes@earthlink.net
#19
08-28-2005, 10:56 PM
Re: Katrina on her way
Well, I'm not concerned about the price really, but I am worried about a gas shortage. Phoenix ran out of gas about 2 years ago. It was not fun. Soooo.. I picked up two more gas cans tonight and now have about 16 gallons of gas stockpiled. For my car, that's good for about 16 round-trip days of going to work. I'm hoping we don't run out again, but if we do, at least I'll have some saved up.
#20
08-28-2005, 11:36 PM
Re: Katrina on her way
Rigzone.com looks like a good site to monitor in the coming days for news on the impact in the gulf.
Here's a link to their latest news piece. Florida is mentioned in particular for shortage problems. The state has a 10 day supply of gasoline and gets 90% from the refineries on the Mississippi River.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=24773
Here's a link to their latest news piece. Florida is mentioned in particular for shortage problems. The state has a 10 day supply of gasoline and gets 90% from the refineries on the Mississippi River.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=24773
