Sometime in June, I'd guess.

 

I cast my vote for 9-12 months based on HG's criterion (never goes below $3 again). We're already at ~$2.50 locally, which is up 30-40 cents since March 1.

I expect $3 in early summer, then backing off again by August or September. This assumes no disruption of refining or pumping due to hurricanes, and no geopolitical supply disruptions. If Emperor Bush II attacks Iran and they retaliate by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, crude will instantly skyrocket to $90 or even $100/bbl. and all bets are off.

 

Well, the latest news on MTBE suggests there will be an as-of-yet undetermined price spike when all the states ban MTBE in a panic to protect themselves from lawsuits now that the EPA is declaring MTBE no longer a protected substance. They're claiming MTBE production affects 11% of total RFG production and thus 1.6% of all gasoline, but not only that, MTBE permitted other additives totaling 1.4% of the gasoline pool (we're up to 3% now) that cannot be done without the presense of MTBE.

So what's the effect of a 3% shortage of fuel? Can we hope it's small? Even if it is, I wouldn't doubt the MTBE panic alone will result in 10-15 cents of price increase while ethanol manufacturers scramble to ramp up production and we have to start importing from offshore.

Speaking of, did anyone else catch the news that the USA is now the number one ethanol producer in the world? Not only that, we still didn't make enough ethanol to satisfy demand and had to import from other countries anyway. Now seriously, I had no idea we were making so much ethanol already, and it goes to show you just how tiny Brazil really is when we can make as much ethanol as them, yet over there, they have so much to run it in half their vehicles and here it's still a tiny fraction of our total liquid vehicle fuel supply.

It states we produced 4.267 billion gallons of ethanol last year. That's 11.7 million gallons per day. At 42 gallons per barrel, that's 0.28 barrels per day. What's our daily consumption in the USA? 20 million barrels? Ok, so we make enough ethanol to cover 1.4% of our fuel needs. Awesome. If MTBE creates a 3% shortage, that would mean we need to triple our ethanol production if we were to cover MTBE entirely by means of Ethanol. Now remember how the EPA said they were going to let some states just stop using RFG entirely? Yeah, this is why. We simply don't have enough ethanol to switch over from MTBE to ethanol by summertime.

 

My $0.02 is it is a possiblity

There is alot of talk surrounding Irans plans to open their own oil exchange in both iranian currency and euros. If such a thing was to happen before an "Invasion" you may see the collapse of the allready inflated american dollar due to demand. . Although on a global level the price of oil may be the same, to US the actual cost may go through the roof, and US debt may not be paid, and not even hypermilers will afford to drive

 

What I find totally amazing is a few years back when CA, NY and CT mandated the use of MBTE in it's gas we were told our gas would be 10 - 15 cents a gallon higher then the rest of the US... Which we are STILL paying for today. NOW that they are going to take it away another increase... It's a corporate SCAM!!!!

When we become a third world country, which is not to far in our distant future at the rate we are going, who will the politicians and big corporations fleece then.

 

Actually prices are higher for everything in California and New York because real estate and labor costs more. It costs probably $10,000 for the land to build a gas station in Alabama and $200,000 for the land to build a gas station in a prime location in NY and CA. On top of that, because the cost of living is higher, station attendants must be paid more. Further, CA and NY have their own designer gasoline, like many places do ( I believe there's now 33 variations of gasoline in the country ) plus every state has different rates they tax gasoline at.

If you look at this link you'll see that CA and NY appear to have among the highest gas taxes in the country.

 

If you think the People's Republics of Noo Yawk and Californicate are expensive, pay a visit to Hawaii sometime. Living costs are sky-high there because 1) land is at a premium, and 2) everything except pineapples & coconuts must be imported. We visited the state in 1991, and the cheapest regular gas at that time was $1.52 in Hilo, $1.58 in Kailua-Kona and $1.36 in Honolulu.

 

Here in Fla. its 2.51 for 87* I say in june,

If gas prices get to high, we can always revert back to horse & buggy!

 

That would certainly be true for New York City and surrounding counties, but here (way!) upstate, our land is relatively cheap (my friends visiting from Baltimore last week could not BELIEVE how low our real estate prices are around here - I asked them to guess the price of a particular house, they guessed $600K, and in reality it would probably sell for about $200K; and that's a LARGE, fairly nice Victorian on a moderate lot, downtown! a typical lot for a gas station could certainly be had for less than $100K, probably less than $50K), and our cost of living (with the exception of gas, that is) is not unreasonable. Certainly not up to NYC or Calif. standards. SO WHY is our gasoline still way above the national average, even up here in otherwise depressed/recessed Ithaca, Cortland, Syracuse, etc.?? Some of the answer is high taxes, some is high costs of labor other than wages (Workers' Compensation insurance is high)... but I don't think that explains all of it.