The 2009 TCH are now on dealers' lots and if given a choice which would you get, the '09 or '08 that limited in colors/options? There does not appear to be a significant diff. on price increase.

Would you get a 2008 that's discounted $1000 but knowing that it will depreciate sooner than the 2009 model? Also think about the mileage of the car you get in a year or 2 and how that will affect it's price later on, what i mean by this is that in 2009, the 08 model will have 15k miles as opposed to the 09 having the same amt of miles.

Yeah yeah yeah i know there will be some that can care less about the value of the car later since they plan to keep their cars "forever" but to keep the forum busy let's have some fun and discuss which you'll get.

 

IMHO the year is more important.
If you were buying a used (yes, I know dealers call them "pre-owned") car today, would you rather buy an '02 with 60K miles or an '03 with 60K miles? With modern search capabilities, most will filter for the year, say 5 years or less, first and then pay attention to the miles.
With any purchase, however, your budget is more important than potential resale value.
However, when considering a hybrid, you really shouldn't be overly concerned with resale value, since, beyond a few years, no one knows what a used hybrid will be worth in the market, if anything?
A regular Camry is easy to gauge, there is enough data out there where one can easily project what a five year old car will be worth, even a ten year old car.
With the hybrid, there is a great unknown, how long will the batteries last? What if these batteries start going bad at twelve years? How expensive will replacement batteries be?
The car comes with a ten year warranty on the battery (and if your lucky, your battery will fail at nine years and you'll get a new one).
Will anyone buy an twelve year old hybrid?
Would you?
I wouldn't!
Here's my, back of the envelope, calculation...

• Let's go forward a few years, it is now 2019.
  • If a 2008 (gas) Camry at 11 years of age is worth (just guessing) $4,000.
  • Let's assume that it is well known that the batteries don't last forever and a replacement battery for the TCH costs (just guessing) $5000, the 11 year old 2008 TCH is theoretically worthless, since the risk to the buyer is too great to pay anything for it.
• This calculation (flawed as it is) will start eating into the value of a seven year old TCH as you use the same logic.
  • How much would you pay for a car (gas) that will be worth $4000 in four years? Maybe $8000.
  • How much would you pay for a 7 year old hybrid that you were pretty much assured would be worthless in four years. I'd say no more than $3000.
• Let's back it up and use the same logic for a four year old car.
  • How much would a purchaser of a four year old (gas) car would pay for a four year old car if he assumed it will be worth $8,000 in three years? Maybe $12,000.
  • How much would the TCH buyer pay for a four year old car that he thought was going to be worth $3000? Maybe $7,000.
• So, the gas Camry, starting at around $24,000 will be worth $12,000 in four years. The TCH, starting at $26,000 will be worth $7000 at the same time.
• You'll save about $500 year on gas (this number can vary greatly) and maybe a few bucks on maintenance, but not nearly enough to cover the loss of resale value.

I know my logic is probably flawed, but not too much, I think it's safe to say that the TCH will have a very poor resale value.
In addition, in the next five years I imagine battery technology will have improved greatly such that the 2012 TCHs will be far superior to the first generation TCHs, further reducing any potential resale value.
If your at all concerned with resale value, don't buy a hybrid. Buy the gas powered Camry and put the savings in the bank to pay for the extra cost of the gas, when you sell the car, you'll be ahead.
IMHO, the decision to purchase a TCH is not a financial one.
BTW, I love mine, but I don't delude myself for one second that this was a wise economic decision.

If anyone thinks my logic is flawed, I'd like to offer them my six month old Toshiba HD DVD player for sale.

(I am putting on my helmet and adjusting my chinstrap expecting to get bashed for this)

 

Do you really think there will be $5k difference in the resale value in four years? I'm not so sure given that there is still another four years left on the battery/hybrid system warranty (a HUGE selling point!) and gas will probably be $6-7 a gallon by then!

 

Just guessing on the numbers, but answer me this question...
If you had no clue how long the battery would last (notwithstanding the fact that the battery will probably out last the warranty, but by how long?), how much would you pay for a four year old hybrid?
It will never make sense to put $5000 into a ten year old Camry, so you'd have to be crazy to buy a ten year old car. I believe that these cars will, essentially, be unsalable once the warranty expires on the battery.
I also think the market will be flooded (many new models coming online) with hybrids in a few years, thus diluting the 'scarcity value' of the current generation.
I still have my 1996 Avalon with 175000 miles.
I buy cars to keep, not sell, so I'm really not too concerned with resale value.

 

...of course if replacement batteries come down in price (not positive about the $5,000 figure, that's what the dealer told me it costs), the argument changes.

 

The flaw in this is that you could pay $3000 for that hybrid, put in a new $5000 battery, and it would cost the same as the gas version, yet have all the benefits of a hybrid with a new battery.

The differential is only considering the value of the battery. However the gas version is more likely to have transmission problems (recent Camrys seem to have significant transmission problems) and the repair record for the hybrids so far is much better. Also I think your $5000 estimate for the battery is too high considering the old batteries have high scrap value and also businesses will probably sprout up to rebuild the battery packs.


This is a non sequitur. THe HD DVD player is obsolete, the car wouldn't be (unless everything changes to Diesel fuel).

 

Great long post Haroldo, very informative but I got a headache reading it.

Bottom line, 2008 or 2009 TCH?

 

I always think it's best to buy the latest model year of the current generation. Wven though the core design is the same, they will have fixed some of the manufacturing flaws, such as the various squeaks and TSB's that us early adaptors have had to deal with.

 

They will also inevitably find a new way to save a buck by using a thiner pieces of metal here or a cheaper grade of plastic there.

I worked at a tier 1 supplier for awhile and I know the first generation product we rolled off the line was always over engineered. Every cycle after that we found a new way to cut costs.

Back to the OP's question: If you're going to keep the car over 8 years, get the '08. The difference in resale after that much time will be minimal.

 

You can buy Prius batteries for well under a grand on eBay. This shows that the cars are totaled much more quickly than the batteries fail.

Plus a battery is easy to change out. Much easier than rebuilding a transmission. (which the TCH doesn't have to fail).

The resale value will be fine.