The man behind CNW Marketing
#1
08-27-2007, 07:33 AM
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Huntsville, AL
Posts: 5,613
The man behind CNW Marketing
For the longest time, I realized how great was the gap between the actual work from CNW Marketing and the "Dust-to-Dust" report. I had suspected as many other have, that CNW Marketing had copied the report from another source. Forgive me but I had even thought possibly the automotive or oil companies but it didn't ring true. But today, I've seen the likely source of CNW Marketing's "Dust-to-Dust" report, David Cole of the Center for Automotive Research.
A former engineering teacher, David Cole has access to the information CNW Marketing needed for "Dust-to-Dust." A true believer in 'large vehicles' and blind to 'peak oil,' I heard the same phrases, the same style, found in "Dust-to-Dust." He also has access to the type of data, distorted as it is, found in "Dust-to-Dust."
The past year has seen CNW Marketing reverting to their flawed, 'ask the dealers' methodology that marks their typical report. These under whelming reports from CNW Marketing had made me wonder if chewing gum would keep them immobile and put their breathing at risk. But David Cole is a different critter entirely.
Understand that I'm not interested in anything other than identification of the sources, this strange alliance of those who continue to deny reality. For knowing who and their organizations makes it easier to handle their sincere, but wrong self-delusions.
Bob Wilson
A former engineering teacher, David Cole has access to the information CNW Marketing needed for "Dust-to-Dust." A true believer in 'large vehicles' and blind to 'peak oil,' I heard the same phrases, the same style, found in "Dust-to-Dust." He also has access to the type of data, distorted as it is, found in "Dust-to-Dust."
The past year has seen CNW Marketing reverting to their flawed, 'ask the dealers' methodology that marks their typical report. These under whelming reports from CNW Marketing had made me wonder if chewing gum would keep them immobile and put their breathing at risk. But David Cole is a different critter entirely.
Understand that I'm not interested in anything other than identification of the sources, this strange alliance of those who continue to deny reality. For knowing who and their organizations makes it easier to handle their sincere, but wrong self-delusions.
Bob Wilson
#3
08-28-2007, 09:43 AM
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Huntsville, AL
Posts: 5,613
Re: The man behind CNW Marketing
Hi,
I'm following up with Cole and "Center for Automotive Research" and found a number of related papers on their web site. So I sent an e-mail to Cole and asked if they had read and formed an opinion about the "CNW Marketing" 'Dust-to-Dust' report and forwarded a URL. While getting the 'Dust-to-Dust' URL, I noticed in August of 2007, this month, "CNW Marketing" published their rebuttal to the Pacific Institute critique.
Once again, I noticed in "CNW Marketing" the same evasive answers and lame response that marked their earlier replies to our criticisms. For example, using code words including "an agenda" instead of addressing the issues. Then throwing up red herrings such as, ". . . look at support industries during the pre- and post-ownership stages such as road maintenance (based on mileage and weight), environmental compliance and literally hundreds of non-vehicle support activities." Also, selective use of data such as citing the Honda Accord Hybrid going out of production while still clinging to the 109,000 mile Prius lifetime mileage.
It is said that all it takes for evil to succeed is for good men to remain silent. Although dealing with "CNW Marketing" is a pain, they will not be separated from their folly. We can only hope that more and more folks will simply choose to ignore them.
BTW, the best rebuttal are Prius sales:
2001 - __5,562
2002 - _15,556
2002 - _20,119
2003 - _24,627
2004 - _53,991
2005 - 107,894
2006 - 106,971
2007 - 110,565 (as of July)
These numbers do not include all other hybrids and GM's two-mode hybrids will be here this fall. In short, this battle is over and CNW Marketing has yet to realize they've lost.
Bob Wilson
I'm following up with Cole and "Center for Automotive Research" and found a number of related papers on their web site. So I sent an e-mail to Cole and asked if they had read and formed an opinion about the "CNW Marketing" 'Dust-to-Dust' report and forwarded a URL. While getting the 'Dust-to-Dust' URL, I noticed in August of 2007, this month, "CNW Marketing" published their rebuttal to the Pacific Institute critique.
Once again, I noticed in "CNW Marketing" the same evasive answers and lame response that marked their earlier replies to our criticisms. For example, using code words including "an agenda" instead of addressing the issues. Then throwing up red herrings such as, ". . . look at support industries during the pre- and post-ownership stages such as road maintenance (based on mileage and weight), environmental compliance and literally hundreds of non-vehicle support activities." Also, selective use of data such as citing the Honda Accord Hybrid going out of production while still clinging to the 109,000 mile Prius lifetime mileage.
It is said that all it takes for evil to succeed is for good men to remain silent. Although dealing with "CNW Marketing" is a pain, they will not be separated from their folly. We can only hope that more and more folks will simply choose to ignore them.
BTW, the best rebuttal are Prius sales:
2001 - __5,562
2002 - _15,556
2002 - _20,119
2003 - _24,627
2004 - _53,991
2005 - 107,894
2006 - 106,971
2007 - 110,565 (as of July)
These numbers do not include all other hybrids and GM's two-mode hybrids will be here this fall. In short, this battle is over and CNW Marketing has yet to realize they've lost.
Bob Wilson
Last edited by bwilson4web; 09-03-2007 at 12:48 PM.
#4
09-03-2007, 04:10 PM
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Huntsville, AL
Posts: 5,613
Re: The man behind CNW Marketing
INTRODUCTION
Early in 2006, CNW Marketing published their "Dust-to-Dust" report claiming hybrids were more costly per mile than large SUVs including the Hummer. These claims came from undereporting annual hybrid mileage, ". . . Prius drivers are covering only 6,700 miles per year," while giving large SUVs exceptionally long vehicle lifetimes. But it also claimed to know the cost of development and disposal of hybrids, Toyota hybrids, without citing sources. Then the director from the Michigan "Center for Automotive Research" showed up on C-SPAN in August.
Compared to CNW Marketing, the "Center for Automotive Research" has credible access to automotive industry executives and senior engineers. Their web site has a number of reports and reading them, especially in chronological order gives insights to the "Dust-to-Dust" report.
REPORT SURVEY
April 2000, Michigan Automotive Partnership Research Memorandum No. 2, Michigan: The High-Technology Automotive State, Sean P. McAlinden, Abel Feinstein, and Brett C. Smith., 62 pages.
November 2002, Advanced Power Technology Survey, Brett Smith, 32 pages.
Fall 2003, Economic Contributions of the Automotive Industry to the U.S. Economy - An Update, Sean P. McAlinden, Ph.D., Kim Hill, MPP, Bernard Swiecki, 41 pages.
June 2005, The California Greenhouse Gas Initiative and Its Implications to the Automotive Industry, 12 pages.
August 2006, Key Factors that Enable Product Development: An Investigation of Creating "Cool" Products, 23 pages.
November 2006, Copper in End-of-Life Vehicle Recycling, 29 pages.
The "Center for Automotive Research" papers have more credibility than the CNW Marketing "Dust-to-Dust" report. With the exception of claims made beyond the available data such as hybrid costs versus manufacturer retail price differences, and repeating "group think" chestnuts, when their reports stayed close to the facts and data, the reports have credibility. But their latest report, How Automakers Plan Their Products, gives a clue as to the actual goals and objectives of CNW Marketing's "Dust-to-Dust" report. CNW Marketing "Dust-to-Dust" attempts to be the "Voice of the Consumer" to auto executives and engineering management. Only the customers voted with their wallets and have and continue to buy every serious hybrid available.
Bob Wilson
Early in 2006, CNW Marketing published their "Dust-to-Dust" report claiming hybrids were more costly per mile than large SUVs including the Hummer. These claims came from undereporting annual hybrid mileage, ". . . Prius drivers are covering only 6,700 miles per year," while giving large SUVs exceptionally long vehicle lifetimes. But it also claimed to know the cost of development and disposal of hybrids, Toyota hybrids, without citing sources. Then the director from the Michigan "Center for Automotive Research" showed up on C-SPAN in August.
Compared to CNW Marketing, the "Center for Automotive Research" has credible access to automotive industry executives and senior engineers. Their web site has a number of reports and reading them, especially in chronological order gives insights to the "Dust-to-Dust" report.
REPORT SURVEY
April 2000, Michigan Automotive Partnership Research Memorandum No. 2, Michigan: The High-Technology Automotive State, Sean P. McAlinden, Abel Feinstein, and Brett C. Smith., 62 pages.
November 2002, Advanced Power Technology Survey, Brett Smith, 32 pages.
(Hybrid Electric rjw) Percent of total fleet: 1.75%-2007, 7.5%-2012, pp. 28
2003, Integrated build: a new approach to building automotive bodies, Richard J. Gerth and Jay Baron, 16 pages.Fall 2003, Economic Contributions of the Automotive Industry to the U.S. Economy - An Update, Sean P. McAlinden, Ph.D., Kim Hill, MPP, Bernard Swiecki, 41 pages.
No mention of vehicle recycling as a source of significant economic activity.
October 10, 2003, Revenue and Financial Margin Life Cycle Management Project, Management Briefing Seminar 2003: Executive Panel Discussion, David J. Andrea, Jonathan A. Morell, 14 pages.". . . Once a contract is in place, customer consistency lowers the cost of doing business by minimizing unanticipated change in planning and scheduling. The Japanese manufactures are characterized as being "slaves to the calendar." This discipline binds them to a consistent sequence of activities and information flows that lowers risk for suppliers.
Another significant difference between the domestic and Japanese firms is the high level of accuracy provided by Japanese firms into key program variables such as production volume estimates. . . ." pp. 9
March, 2004, The Advanced Power Technology Delima: From Hydrocarbons to Hydrogen, CAR, 34 pages.Another significant difference between the domestic and Japanese firms is the high level of accuracy provided by Japanese firms into key program variables such as production volume estimates. . . ." pp. 9
This report contains suggestions of "group think." For example, ". . . 20% improvement in fuel economy and emissions reductions. . ." for existing ICE technology (pp. iv.) The problem is the tradeoffs to make such thermodynamic improvements in 100 year old technology makes an incredibly difficult problem sound trivial. Also, "None of the proposed advanced power technologies are likely to be cost competitive (without rjw) tax credits and other incentives (to) stimulate demand pp vi." It is interesting that tax incentives for Toyota hybrids end in September 2007 and even with the reductions, they sell very well.
At the end of an introduction to hybrid technology is a whole paragraph, "Yet in exchange for their benefits, current hybrids have considerably greater cost and complexity, less acceleration if the IC engine is downsized . . . pp. 18." There is no supporting data or evidence for "if the IC engine is downsized." In fact, the photo is of an NHW20 Prius whose higher redline rpm, 5,000, gives it significantly more power over the previous year's model. This paragraph tries to summarize all of the hybrid drawbacks and repeats the same skeptic claims heard many times about hybrids that at the time, it was all but boilerplate criticism.
In the conclusions, was this interesting bit, "Hybrid-electric technologies may cost $5,000 to $10,000 above the baseline, although Toyota and other manufactuers are selling hybrids at a $2,000-$4,000 premium. pp. 31" Why does a conclusion speculate about the cost of a hybrid when the actual cost difference in the market place is well known?
April 2004, Advanced Power Technology Alliance Advanced Internal Combustion Engine Survey (Light Duty Vehicle Technology), 21 pages.At the end of an introduction to hybrid technology is a whole paragraph, "Yet in exchange for their benefits, current hybrids have considerably greater cost and complexity, less acceleration if the IC engine is downsized . . . pp. 18." There is no supporting data or evidence for "if the IC engine is downsized." In fact, the photo is of an NHW20 Prius whose higher redline rpm, 5,000, gives it significantly more power over the previous year's model. This paragraph tries to summarize all of the hybrid drawbacks and repeats the same skeptic claims heard many times about hybrids that at the time, it was all but boilerplate criticism.
In the conclusions, was this interesting bit, "Hybrid-electric technologies may cost $5,000 to $10,000 above the baseline, although Toyota and other manufactuers are selling hybrids at a $2,000-$4,000 premium. pp. 31" Why does a conclusion speculate about the cost of a hybrid when the actual cost difference in the market place is well known?
A curious report because it only addressed engine technology, not the whole vehicle. This narrow focus on one part, just the engine, speaks volumes to a myopic view of automobile efficiency. It is as if the rest of the vehicle doesn't matter. However, pp. 14 made reference to two interesting technologies "Turbo alternators . . . Electric pumps. "
March 2005, The Contribution of the International Auto Sector to the U.S. Economy: An Update, Center for Automotive Research, 24 pages.This is the first report that gives some indication of automotive business costs. However, it is for the USA, not Japan and not specific to models such as SUVs.
March 2005, Automotive Product Design & Development Delphi, Center for Automotive Research, 137 pages.The few references to "Recyclability" pp. 115, had it in the 0.7-0.8% level. This makes any higher claims such as CNW Marketing's, very suspect. Salvage and recycling is not a major part of the costs.
June 2005, Contribution of Toyota to the Economies of Fourteen States and the United States in 2003, 42 pages.June 2005, The California Greenhouse Gas Initiative and Its Implications to the Automotive Industry, 12 pages.
""Currently, the automotive industry is struggling to understand the developing advanced powertrain paradigm. . . " pp. 11. That certainly agrees with everything we've seen. This is the myopic view of the ICE to the exclusion of the rest of the vehicle.
"we believe, given our cost and efficiency gains estimates and a reasonable continuation current fuel prices, the HEV will not be an economically attractive choice within the forecast timeframe. . . . We suggest that the technology may be enticing to some consumers for reasons other than fuel savings. . . ." pp. 11. At the time, Toyota dealers were insisting on and getting premiums of thousands over the list price with waiting lists. Yet there were backlogs and no inventory on the dealer lots. This is one of the best examples of "group think" blindness. All it takes is understanding there will be a Gaussian distribution of miles driven per year to understand the right edge, market for fuel efficient cars. But in its defense, this report was pre-Katrina.
January 2006, Low-Volume Vehicle Production, 105 pages."we believe, given our cost and efficiency gains estimates and a reasonable continuation current fuel prices, the HEV will not be an economically attractive choice within the forecast timeframe. . . . We suggest that the technology may be enticing to some consumers for reasons other than fuel savings. . . ." pp. 11. At the time, Toyota dealers were insisting on and getting premiums of thousands over the list price with waiting lists. Yet there were backlogs and no inventory on the dealer lots. This is one of the best examples of "group think" blindness. All it takes is understanding there will be a Gaussian distribution of miles driven per year to understand the right edge, market for fuel efficient cars. But in its defense, this report was pre-Katrina.
August 2006, Key Factors that Enable Product Development: An Investigation of Creating "Cool" Products, 23 pages.
November 2006, Copper in End-of-Life Vehicle Recycling, 29 pages.
Curious, this report addresses vehicle recycling, copper. It is a good report but fails to invent huge society costs from recycling vehicles. The only interesting fact is steel recyclers don't like copper but the chief source of steel contamination is the wiring. In fact, transmissions, a copper rich source in hybrids, are identified with the engines as being a primary, salvage part likely to be rebuilt and returned to service as a spare, pp. 13.
July 2007, How Automakers Plan Their Products, 30 pages.This is the most factual description of product development but it also outlines a likely role for the "Dust-to-Dust" report. ""The Voice of the Customer" (VOC) is a key input, an many sources of data are used to characterize this critical factor, both for specific programs and for overall brand and corporate strategies. . . " pp. 7. This outlines the role of "Dust-to-Dust," as someone's attempt to salt the VOC.
The factual errors of "Dust-to-Dust" stand alone but the abusive, condescending attributes laid upon hybrid owners by CNW Marketing, was and remains the ultimate message. The true audience were automotive executives and chief engineers, to play upon their worst prejudices and spike domestic hybrid efforts. Then Toyota opened up their manufacturing lines and in 2007 Toyota has already sold as many Prius as all of 2006 and there still is no backlog of unsold inventory.
"Wornack, J.P., D.T. Jones, and D. Roos. 1990. The Machine that Changed the World. New York: Rawson Associates." pp. 30. It is a shame the biography did not include, "The Prius That Shook The World, How Toyota Developed the World's First Mass-Production Hybrid Vehicle, Hide Shiitazaki, Translated by Albert Yamada & Masako Ishikawa." 105 pages. Had they read this book, they would have gained insights still missing from this last report.
CONCLUSIONSThe factual errors of "Dust-to-Dust" stand alone but the abusive, condescending attributes laid upon hybrid owners by CNW Marketing, was and remains the ultimate message. The true audience were automotive executives and chief engineers, to play upon their worst prejudices and spike domestic hybrid efforts. Then Toyota opened up their manufacturing lines and in 2007 Toyota has already sold as many Prius as all of 2006 and there still is no backlog of unsold inventory.
"Wornack, J.P., D.T. Jones, and D. Roos. 1990. The Machine that Changed the World. New York: Rawson Associates." pp. 30. It is a shame the biography did not include, "The Prius That Shook The World, How Toyota Developed the World's First Mass-Production Hybrid Vehicle, Hide Shiitazaki, Translated by Albert Yamada & Masako Ishikawa." 105 pages. Had they read this book, they would have gained insights still missing from this last report.
The "Center for Automotive Research" papers have more credibility than the CNW Marketing "Dust-to-Dust" report. With the exception of claims made beyond the available data such as hybrid costs versus manufacturer retail price differences, and repeating "group think" chestnuts, when their reports stayed close to the facts and data, the reports have credibility. But their latest report, How Automakers Plan Their Products, gives a clue as to the actual goals and objectives of CNW Marketing's "Dust-to-Dust" report. CNW Marketing "Dust-to-Dust" attempts to be the "Voice of the Consumer" to auto executives and engineering management. Only the customers voted with their wallets and have and continue to buy every serious hybrid available.
Bob Wilson
Last edited by bwilson4web; 09-03-2007 at 11:47 PM.
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