Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

How long will it take?
I'm thinking 6-9 months.

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

Ok - is this sustained, or seasonal ?

My predictions (I'm waiting to vote until I get clarification, btw...lol)

Seasonal - it'll happen by July of this year. With or without a major Hurricane disrupting production / refining / delivery.

Sustained - it'll be here by this time next year, or by next Summer at the latest.

We're at $2.40 or so now...at 18% avg annual increase the last couple of years, that would put us at about approx. $2.85 in 1yr from today, $3.34 in 2yrs.

I do subscribe to the Peak Oil way of thinking - that's why I traded cars recently.

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

Your prediction should be for sustained $3.00 per gallon, never to be below that level again. Just like our $1.00 and $2.00 of not-so-long ago.
GreenAndBlue I bought my car in January of 2004 when gas raised to $1.25/g because I believed it wouldn't be long until we paid $2.00/g ;)

Now we're pushing $2.50. Most folks agree the increase is seasonal....but typically they raise it alot, then back off a little for an overall higher new price.

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

Ahh, in that case I guess I voted wrong. Gas will cost over $3 nationally by June or July (definitely by July 4th) but I think that we will probably dip back into the $2.70-$2.90 range for a few months after the summer driving season. The following summer will probably be just a touch under $4 and we will never see <$3 again. Supply is not increasing and demand will not start to decrease unless some really dramatic changes take place. Predicting prices 5 years into the future scares me. You lucky SOBs and your hybrids...

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

I see it this way:

- limited supply, lack of synthetic oil infrastructure
- inadequate efficiency efforts, burning so there will no tomorrow
- growing demand, bicycles become motor scooters become cars
- stronger storms threaten offshore production

Bob Wilson

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

To quote DJ Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince, "Summer summer summertime..."

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

My prediction is that it will max out around $3.25 for the summer and then "miraculously" drop back to $2.25 just in time for the November elections. If more Republicans get elected, it'll be up to $3.00 almost overnight. If we get democrats, gas will probably remain in the $2-$2.50 range.

The wildcard is Saudi Arabia. If this country falls to the terrorists, we'll see $10/ gallon.

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

In Houston, I'd say definitely three months. With Hurricane Season starting in June, combined with our switchover to E10 and the issues associated with that switch, it will be at $3 by June.

Jeff

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

We're hovering around $2.50 right now and it's only March. It'll be $3.00 by summer.

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

East coast = no easily available ethanol, plus summer driving. 3 will be the new 2.25, which was the new 1.50...
We're at 2.50 in MD/DC now.
The barrier was already broken, so the psychological impact won't be as harsh this time. Makes it easier to bear keeping it over 3 for an extended period, too.

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

Sometime in June, I'd guess.

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

I cast my vote for 9-12 months based on HG's criterion (never goes below $3 again). We're already at ~$2.50 locally, which is up 30-40 cents since March 1. :angry:

I expect $3 in early summer, then backing off again by August or September. This assumes no disruption of refining or pumping due to hurricanes, and no geopolitical supply disruptions. If Emperor Bush II attacks Iran and they retaliate by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, crude will instantly skyrocket to $90 or even $100/bbl. and all bets are off. :omg:

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

Well, the latest news on MTBE suggests there will be an as-of-yet undetermined price spike when all the states ban MTBE in a panic to protect themselves from lawsuits now that the EPA is declaring MTBE no longer a protected substance. They're claiming MTBE production affects 11% of total RFG production and thus 1.6% of all gasoline, but not only that, MTBE permitted other additives totaling 1.4% of the gasoline pool (we're up to 3% now) that cannot be done without the presense of MTBE.

So what's the effect of a 3% shortage of fuel? Can we hope it's small? Even if it is, I wouldn't doubt the MTBE panic alone will result in 10-15 cents of price increase while ethanol manufacturers scramble to ramp up production and we have to start importing from offshore.

Speaking of, did anyone else catch the news that the USA is now the number one ethanol producer in the world? Not only that, we still didn't make enough ethanol to satisfy demand and had to import from other countries anyway. Now seriously, I had no idea we were making so much ethanol already, and it goes to show you just how tiny Brazil really is when we can make as much ethanol as them, yet over there, they have so much to run it in half their vehicles and here it's still a tiny fraction of our total liquid vehicle fuel supply.

It states we produced 4.267 billion gallons of ethanol last year. That's 11.7 million gallons per day. At 42 gallons per barrel, that's 0.28 barrels per day. What's our daily consumption in the USA? 20 million barrels? Ok, so we make enough ethanol to cover 1.4% of our fuel needs. Awesome. If MTBE creates a 3% shortage, that would mean we need to triple our ethanol production if we were to cover MTBE entirely by means of Ethanol. Now remember how the EPA said they were going to let some states just stop using RFG entirely? Yeah, this is why. We simply don't have enough ethanol to switch over from MTBE to ethanol by summertime.

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

My $0.02 is it is a possiblity

There is alot of talk surrounding Irans plans to open their own oil exchange in both iranian currency and euros. If such a thing was to happen before an "Invasion" you may see the collapse of the allready inflated american dollar due to demand. . Although on a global level the price of oil may be the same, to US the actual cost may go through the roof, and US debt may not be paid, and not even hypermilers will afford to drive

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

What I find totally amazing is a few years back when CA, NY and CT mandated the use of MBTE in it's gas we were told our gas would be 10 - 15 cents a gallon higher then the rest of the US... Which we are STILL paying for today. NOW that they are going to take it away another increase...:angry: It's a corporate SCAM!!!!

When we become a third world country, which is not to far in our distant future at the rate we are going, who will the politicians and big corporations fleece then.

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

Actually prices are higher for everything in California and New York because real estate and labor costs more. It costs probably $10,000 for the land to build a gas station in Alabama and $200,000 for the land to build a gas station in a prime location in NY and CA. On top of that, because the cost of living is higher, station attendants must be paid more. Further, CA and NY have their own designer gasoline, like many places do ( I believe there's now 33 variations of gasoline in the country ) plus every state has different rates they tax gasoline at.

If you look at this link you'll see that CA and NY appear to have among the highest gas taxes in the country.

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

If you think the People's Republics of Noo Yawk and Californicate are expensive, pay a visit to Hawaii sometime. Living costs are sky-high there because 1) land is at a premium, and 2) everything except pineapples & coconuts must be imported. We visited the state in 1991, and the cheapest regular gas at that time was $1.52 in Hilo, $1.58 in Kailua-Kona and $1.36 in Honolulu. :omg:

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

Here in Fla. its 2.51 for 87* I say in june,

If gas prices get to high, we can always revert back to horse & buggy!;)

Re: Prediction-How long till $3.00/G Nat'l average?
 

That would certainly be true for New York City and surrounding counties, but here (way!) upstate, our land is relatively cheap (my friends visiting from Baltimore last week could not BELIEVE how low our real estate prices are around here - I asked them to guess the price of a particular house, they guessed $600K, and in reality it would probably sell for about $200K; and that's a LARGE, fairly nice Victorian on a moderate lot, downtown! a typical lot for a gas station could certainly be had for less than $100K, probably less than $50K), and our cost of living (with the exception of gas, that is) is not unreasonable. Certainly not up to NYC or Calif. standards. SO WHY is our gasoline still way above the national average, even up here in otherwise depressed/recessed Ithaca, Cortland, Syracuse, etc.?? Some of the answer is high taxes, some is high costs of labor other than wages (Workers' Compensation insurance is high)... but I don't think that explains all of it.