Other sources of energy cost more ! So when will oil go higher, and at about $7.50 a gallon a study says other things such as hydrogen will start to make sence. So the question isn't what if , but when will gas go sky hi..

 

having been stationed in Germany in the mid 80's when gas was around $3 a gallon, i think it has to do with the taxes. Now......20 years later..........they are paying over $6-7 a gallon.........and it may be headed our way in the US sooner than we all would like! Demand for oil is going up and refining capacity has not kept pace............so prices are going up. Add to that all the turbulence in the world especially near oil producing countries......spells big problems!!

 

We're heading for the proverbial wall on energy. And when we hit it, our "green cars" aren't going to save us. There is no known technology which can take the place of petroleum products in our industrial culture.

And we aren't going to be able to restore order to the chaos in the oil producing countries, either. Because it's their oil revenues which are destabilizing them in the first place. These countries do not have sophisticated enough economies to absorb their revenues in any constructive manner, so the default position is that huge amounts of wealth disappear into the pockets of a totally corrupt elite which only inflames the outrage of their populations. And you know who gets blamed for all of this don't you? If you guessed the United States, you guessed right.

 

Good point, Whiterook. I've read that the biggest oil field in the world, in Saudi Arabia, is nearing end of production; it's been configured for years now with a process that pumps water deep underground to force the last remains of oil higher up. When those types of fields collapse, it's usually suddenly. Most of the other major middle east oil exporting countries are also beyond peak capacity.

I was wondering last year, after hearing reports of record revenue by the oil companies, why they weren't reinvesting that money in drilling for new reserves. I think now the short answer is that there are no new reserves, at least nothing substantial enough to meet the world's growing demand. The only thing drilling can guarantee is a hole in the ground.

I've also read that there are two types of people in the oil business: "surveyors", who look at oil reserves as would a geologist; and "speculators", who look at oil reserves as does Wall Street - which is why you can't get a financial analyst to admit that we're up against a real problem; to do so would collapse the markets. When we read about 'estimated reserves' of oil in various fields, these figures are highly manipulated to ensure the oil company's stock price doesn't collapse, since the company's valuation is based on future reserves (i.e. their stock of inventory, if you will.)

Regarding energy and world politics, look at any geopolitical hot spot in the world and you will see an energy-hungry super power involved in either military intervention or covert action to ensure those energy reserves are available to the west. Central Africa is a prime example. Notice the voting irregularities that happened in Kenya last week? Hmm, could it be because of natural gas reserves?

The sober fact is that the world's energy demand is increasing, while known reserves are nearing end of life, with no substitutes in sight. It doesn't take a conspiracy theorist to understand the plight we're in.

~Joe

 

That's what I've read, too.
Ghawar, The world's largest oil field is pumping something like 30% water.

Just Last night I started reading Simmon's book, "Twilight in the Desert, the coming Saudi oil shock". This book made the best seller list when it came out in 2005. It's very well researched.
To date I have read, "The End of Oil" as well as Heinberg's, "The Party's Over". Heinberg is the most pessimistic and his book is downright depressing, but I can't argue very much with the most important points of his thesis (although I believe his politics are a bit to the Left of my own).

The most compelling thing about these books is that they are all written circa 2003-4-5 and they make some short term predictions as well as long term predictions. So far, just a few years since their publishing, their short term predictions have been right on the money; $100/brl oil prices, energy price driven economic slowdowns, etc. It looks like we're entering a recession for '08 brought on by the tag team of major oil price spike and credit market meltdown.

I work in a scientific research institution. We study biological systems and evolutionary biology. Heinberg's ecology based thesis of population boom and bust has a lot of resonance here with my own understanding of population systems and their energy dynamics.

 

If gas goes higher what would I do.

Hmmm, I guess if it hit $5 a gallon I'd makes some adjustments to my driving. I've been paying top dollar at the pump for years running 93 octane plus octane boost in two of my toys. So I'm used to that. I only drive 16 miles total a day on most days and my work truck is used sparingly at work, maybe a parts run or what not.

My wifes commute is 20 miles to work, so the TrailBlazer averages around 20mpg depending on her mood. Two or so gallons a day. Add in other family activities we will go threw about 100 dollars a week in gas with that.

Overall I'd bet on 150 a week in gas costs for our family in this cold weather. Gas is around 3.15 a gallon, if it went to $5 it would be a big jump, to 235 or so. I'd cut out any nights out to eat. Most likely not use the toys as often in the summer but they only see about 4000 total miles in a summer combined. Getting around 12mpg in one and 15mpg in the other it can be pricey to drive them.

So threw all that mud I just wrote what would I do? Shop smarter, less nights out, less stupid purchases of stuff I want instead of need.

 

For all the reasons stated just below I belive that our current supply of 'easy oil' is all but used up. No, not tomorrow but in the near future there will be very few ploaces where you can just punch a hole in the earth and put a pipe on it to take it to a ship.

In the future our supply of petro-fuel will be found in really really hard to get to locations such as in the middle of the deep ocean and 40000+ feet down, or it will be some new efficient way to develop the largest deposit on earth now, the Athabasca tar sands. But this has problems also. It's expensive and it has huge environmental issues in Canada.

So I'm firmly of the belief that today we are seeing the least expensive petro-fuel that we or our children or grandchildren will ever see again. Oh for the good ol' days of $2.89 gasoline.

My person forecast for my own budget is the following ..
$3.50 on average in 2008 with a minimum of $.50 per gallon increase for each of the following 'x' years.
Average Fuel prices / Year
$4.00 / 2009
$4.50 / 2010
$5.00 / 2011
../..
$9.00 / 2019
$9.50+ / 2020

And that's only a $.50 increase per year, which as all you math-conversant fellow members understand is a decreasing rate of increase.

My Prius is my insurance policy for the shortterm.

 

A recent article (can't say where) pointed out we (the US) had around 700 cars/1000 population. China is around 400/1000. And than there's India.

China alone has more 1000's of population than we do. India has more 1000's population than we do. Therefore, I see an accelerating curve of depletion. Forecast which focused on the West's usage of oil are no longer applicable.

Alternate fuels: Using corn as a fuel is unrealistic. Corn is food. The last thing I would want to see is competition for a commodity important as a food crop.

Fuel cells: Hydrogen it seems is not so easily obtained either. I understand its primary source is natural gas. So, once again competition is for a short supply commodity. Oh, yes. We've not even considered building infrastructure.

Well, dare I say I'm a "geezer". I harken back to .25/gal gas. From my perspective, not only is "cheap" oil gone, but other alternate possibilities don't look so hot either.

So, at my age driving a Prius with a pretty good pension, I would probably travel less. That is, not do cross continental trips so that I can save gas by riding my bike across this or that state.

 

Solar cells/ Hydrogen seemes to be the long term answer. I know there is lots or research going on, and Cal-Tech is working very hard to develop ways to achieve this goal.

 

I think your numbers are optimistic.

One of the biggest news stories of the past one hundred years occurred last Monday (1-14-08). King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia announced to the world (and to President Bush) that the kingdom was going to "allow" the price of oil to be determined "by the market".

This was after the President had asked him to increase Saudi production in order to force prices down a bit. The implications of this are HUGE and yet the whole story seems to have simply sailed over everyone's heads.

The last time I can recall that the Saudi royal family failed to help the West out after a direct appeal from the President of the United States was in 1974 when King Faisel got angry with us for our support of the Israelis after the 1973 Arab/Israeli War.

I don't believe that King Abdullah turned down President Bush's request because he is unwilling to help. I think he turned down the President's request because he is UNABLE to help. In other words, Saudi oil production has officially peaked as of January 14, 2008.
They are no longer the world's swing producer. They are at capacity.

This also explains why after President Bush's return to the States his very first initiative was to engineer a $800 per taxpayer rebate. And the Democrats can't seem to jump on the bandwagon fast enough. I smell panic in the air.