New supply demand outlook for EVs through 2020 from Lithium Conference
 

Some of you will be aware of the 'Lithium Supply & Markets IM Conference Santiago 2009' which just concluded. First of all, did anyone go to it? I didn't, and there doesn't appear to be a writeup of it yet, but a very interesting presentation is available online now here.


It's was presentated by TRU Group, an engineering and special metals firm which recently undertook a thorough market evaluation of the outlook for lithium for Mitsubishi.

What they predict is(analysis made in June 2008, pre crunch):

• The total worldwide EV fleet will increase 11-fold from 3m to 33m by 2020(based on my rudimentary analysis of slide 12)
• This fleet will be composed of: PHEV(38%), HEV(55%) & EV(7%)(again based on very rough calcs from slide 12)
• Existing lithium supply will not meed demand at 2018 but new pipeline projects will allow for a buffer provided the projects are enacted soon(10-year lag time).(slide 20)

This report was commissioned by Mitsubishi as a private report. However they authorised TRU to release some of it. Given that Mitsubishi is using Lithium in its recently released i-Miev, any bias would surely be on the up side. No methodology of the report is given and I have no info as to whether they will release the report.

I find it great to have some concrete figures to analyse with. What do you guys make of them?

Re: New supply demand outlook for EVs through 2020 from Lithium Conference
 

Not bad but I have heartburn with chart #18. Whenever I see a sudden 'burst' in a graph, unless it is a historical event, I am very, very skeptical. I've seen one too many business presentations where the CEO presents some 'doubling of business for the next three years' as if the PowerPoint chart would make it so.

Bob Wilson

Re: New supply demand outlook for EVs through 2020 from Lithium Conference
 

It's quite a spike alright. It is due to the Rincon Salar in Argentina. There's a 19-page pdf here. It's too late for me to read it so I've no opinion on it, but it seems it's in a late development stage and a large production facility is due to come online in 2010.

My initial reaction to the 33m worldwide EVs by 2020 is that it doesn't seem a lot. It's about 3% of the worldwide car fleet. That doesn't seem like a fast enough clip towards reducing emissions and climate change. Can anyone compute the numbers to estimate how much carbon that might prevent? The figure tends to add weight to my initial feeling that lithium is not a silver bullet.

For the talk in some quarters of a revolution, I'm a little underwhelmed. What do you think? Is the EV major penetration likely to be more towards 2030, if at all?

Re: New supply demand outlook for EVs through 2020 from Lithium Conference
 

I'm more than a little concerned because this PDF is a prospectus, an investor solicitation. As a moderator, I need to caution that we don't take kindly to such as it comes awfully close to SPAM.

As for the report, it has a lot of geology information with rosy projections of mineral wealth. But please, please, please do not take the referenced document for anything more than an investment sales pitch. This report dated June 24, 2008 was followed by a Google report that the company was sold six months later in December. This is not the record of a sound investment.

I'm moving the thread to "Anything goes," our most free-wheeling forum because investment discussions do not belong in a General forum. I'm also cautioning folks that we need to play by 'house rules.' SPAM, regardless of what might be offered, is something we take seriously and even if there is an association with our favorite topics.

Bob Wilson