Brian Williams just mentioned during a live cut-in with NBC10 in Philly that this Sunday's New York Times Magazine will have an article he termed "shocking" about when oil supplies will run out.
I've seen various stories about when this is supposed to happen, from 20 to 200 years depending on who you listen to. The trouble is much of the "easy" oil has pretty much been discovered and gotten to. We'll be sucking it out of the "bottom half" of the glass so to speak, plus trying to extract it from shale, etc. & other previously "uneconomical" places. (And maybe environmentally risky places)
We interviewed the manager of a local refinery last winter, and he pooh-poohed the idea of running out in our lifetimes. He came from an oil exploration background and was confident that methods would continue to advance so we could continue to mainline the stuff for the forseeable future.
I'm looking forward to reading the article online.

Fred

 

Back in the day it was hit or miss when they drilled a well. These days the have a bunch of fancy equipment that pretty much narrows in on the oil and give a decent probability of where it is. I expect in this country we will move on to other forms of energy before we run dry.

 

Global Warming and Pollution will be the limiting factors to fossil fuel burning, not oil depletion. Unfortunately, there is too much coal, that can transformed to liquid fuel.

And as many have shown, pollution is not a major deterrent. Strange, but true.

Global Warming, on the other hand, although outside of the range of understanding of GW sixpack, is a calamity set to turn the world upside down in 50 - 100 years.

 

There's a very interesting documentary on this subject, you might be able to download a copy or get it at a library. They explore many of the aspects of the peak oil scenario (what's going on right now with prices rising) as well as questions about post-oil society and what such a situation would look like, with a focus on suburbia because that's the biggest factor in the fuel consumption equasion.

http://www.endofsuburbia.com

 

I said the same thing like 6 months ago, and I'll say it again: Many people will give up EVERYTHING else they own in order to keep their home. You want proof? How about this:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050818/...home_borrowing

"More than half of Californians who purchased a home in the past two years ignored federal guidelines and spent more than 30 percent of their income on housing. One in five spent more than 50 percent of their income, the study found."

Home ownership for many people is the ONLY thing that matters when it comes to spending their money on something they value. The theory that people will abandon their homes in favor of densely packed, dirty, smelly cities full of crime and nutcases is just plain wrong. This is the information age. I know I personally could do my job almost 100% without leaving my home at all, it's just that my company is very traditional and does not permit work from home. If we were faced with a massive fuel crisis, companies would have to offer WFH the same way they offer medical benefits or vacation time. When enough people do their job without transportation, it will change the dynamics of fuel needs completely.

 

As far as people with money go, I doubt they will change their habits, as long as you can afford the gas why bother? But for people who moved out into suburbia because it saved them money, and aren't making the big bucks in the first place the eventual price of gas will probably force them to either move closer to work or find work closer to home unless we figure out some way to avoid the energy crisis. Unfortunately, other than the token efforts made by the sale of hybrids, there doesn't appear to be anything serious on the horizon. Biofuels may provide a partial solution, but they cannot provide the same kind of volume we're currently consuming, let alone what we will be consuming as the economy grows like cancer.

It's going to be very interesting to see how things pan out over the next 10 years or so as peak oil comes down the pipe. Not many people are aware of the full ramifications of peak oil or even what it really means, but I suppose we'll all get a crash course in the near future.

 

Peak oil could be as far away as 2047 by the estimates here, but ok.



More info:

http://forums.thecarlounge.net/zerothread?id=2146095

 

Some additional proof that people will give up everything (including the health of the economy) to drive long distances to work:

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2005...ating_gas.html

Also, here's another look at peak oil, obviously quite a bit different. The updated 2005 version projects 2007 to be the peak year.

 

One of the biggest misconceptions I see concerning peak oil involves people saying "oh, the wells wont run dry, hell, we still have XXX barrels worth in the ground." Thats not peak oil. Peak oil is the point at which we have reached maximum output. After that point, supply dwindles downwards. When Hubbard (the guy who came up with peak oil, hence Hubbards peak) declared that the united states oil production would peak in the 70's he was laughed at and discredited. But low and behold, look at a graph of oil production in the US.



Think about drilling an oilwell in terms of eating a cup of pudding. Those first 4 or 5 scoops full, right there, easy access, just reach on in and scoop it out. But after that, you have to start scraping the sides, then you use your tongue if your significant other isnt around to admonish you for such activities. This is analogous to oil drilling. With the first hit, the stuff spurts into the sky. Then they drill for a while and have to start injecting water into it to get the oil to come up, then they start injecting Natural Gas and CO2. Read about the 3 stages of oil wells and recovery. But oil is not abiotic, its finite and we're at the end of our run.

Now look at the image Schwa posted. This peak is inevitable, it'll happen everywhere. Yes, it will be delayed as new techniques come out to extract oil from previously unaccessable areas - but that comes at an added cost. Then look at india and china, do you think they're going to sit idly by as they start their industrial revolutions? Nope, thus more demand, driving up prices. I've heard many times that gasoline is inelastic, personally I hope its not.

So gentlemen, welcome to the end of cheap oil. This is why I got my hybrid. I figured switching from a 14mpg yukon to a 45mpg HCH, I could absorb about $7 a gallon gas. By the time it reaches that, hopefully I'll have some solar panels and an EV or compressed air vehicle. Or perhaps simply a field of corn, a still, and a motorcycle running on ethanol.

At any rate, to think that this is a problem that will be fixed, or be absorbed without trauma is a bit naive. Watch End of Suburbia. Just think what happens when airlines cant fly cargo or passengers. When trucking lines are shutting down because of the enormous costs of transportation. Big business goes bye bye. Walmart? Goods from china? Nope. Say hello to farmers market and local businesses and an equally disturbing recession then depression.

Try to become self sufficient in as many ways as you can. If you own a house, try to pay it off quickly. If you have land, start learning about gardening/farming. Solar cells and wind turbines are also a good investment.

Part of the reason I post rants like these is with the hopes that someone will produce some information that will cause me to say 'oh ive been wrong' 'we'll be fine after all *happy smile*'. Any takers?

 

I work in oil/gas and may have some bright news for everyone.

First, humans are **** clever.

Next, oil is plentiful but all the easy to get to oil is getting accessed and what that leaves is the hard to get to stuff.

Also, for all you who love Google, look up 'hydrate gulf of mexico recovery' and see about all the untapped natural gas the US has access to. Kind of incredible.

The US has LOTS of coal. Coal can be burned cleanly. Yeah!

Lithium-ion battery technology has advanced a lot. They plan on releasing batteries next year that can be fully charged in minutes. It would be possible to go on a vacation in an electric car and recharge every 400 miles in the time it takes to refill a tank of gas. You probably won't be able to do this at home since your house wouldn't have the juice.

Carbon nanotube sheets were announced. Talk about a wonder mat'l that exhibits an ability to emit light, act as a solar cell and it is tougher than steel. That would really reduce the weight of a car.

All this just shows that the naysayers are wrong and always will be. Things progress in odd ways and I am not losing sleep over gas or the last drop of crude.

By the way, I have a AWD Ford Escape Hybrid and I get a pretty rock solid 35 MPG. I had to relearn how to drive to get to that point, though.

Anyways, be of good cheer. Just remember that the fancy bottle of water you never think about paying for cost more per gallon than gas.

By the way, check this out.

http://www.rense.com/general63/refil.htm

I had lunch with a buddy who is a petro-engineer 3 years ago. He told me about this first. If this is wide spread don't count on hearing about it on the news. The very nature of oil stocks says that the supply is limited. If this is not the case the price of oil stock would plummet. Something to think about.