$4 Gallon Gas Predicted
#22
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
Hurricanes and global climate change...
as some have aptly stated, global warming of course does not cause hurricanes.
Hurricanes have been around much longer than anthropogenic climate change.
However, it is a reasonably valid hypothesis that a) there has been an increase in both frequency and intensity of hurricanes (and also of other extreme weather phenomena / patterns), and b) that this may have a causal relationship with increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Seasonal changes in SSTs are in fact one of the primary reasons we have a hurrican season. A recent publication by K. Emanuel in the journal Nature reveals that the mean duration and mean intensity of hurricanes has approximately doubled over the past 5 decades. Simultaneously, mean sea surface temperatures in the corresponding regions (tropical Atlantic and GoM), during hurricane season, has increased. Emanuel speculates that the increase in mean intensity observed over the past 5 decades could be related to the increase in SSTs. However, at this time this remains speculation, or a hypothesis to be tested. Nevertheless, the evidence in favor of such a causal link is quite strong, although counterarguments exist. Many climate models have consistently predicted an increase in the intensity of metereological extremes, even before the more recent trends in hurricanes became apparent. The fact that Camille in 1969 was one of the most pwerful hurricanes in US history, does not invalidate this hypothesis, since at issue are mean frequency and intensity, not isolated occurrences.
Personally, I do not think it is appropriate to even suggest that Katrina has anything to do with global warming. Katrina is one single storm, and horrendous storms have always and can always occur. However, independently, I do believe it is valid to speculate that there is a reasonable likelihood, that as a result of global warming, climate extremes - including frequency and severity of hurricanes, will increase.
as some have aptly stated, global warming of course does not cause hurricanes.
Hurricanes have been around much longer than anthropogenic climate change.
However, it is a reasonably valid hypothesis that a) there has been an increase in both frequency and intensity of hurricanes (and also of other extreme weather phenomena / patterns), and b) that this may have a causal relationship with increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Seasonal changes in SSTs are in fact one of the primary reasons we have a hurrican season. A recent publication by K. Emanuel in the journal Nature reveals that the mean duration and mean intensity of hurricanes has approximately doubled over the past 5 decades. Simultaneously, mean sea surface temperatures in the corresponding regions (tropical Atlantic and GoM), during hurricane season, has increased. Emanuel speculates that the increase in mean intensity observed over the past 5 decades could be related to the increase in SSTs. However, at this time this remains speculation, or a hypothesis to be tested. Nevertheless, the evidence in favor of such a causal link is quite strong, although counterarguments exist. Many climate models have consistently predicted an increase in the intensity of metereological extremes, even before the more recent trends in hurricanes became apparent. The fact that Camille in 1969 was one of the most pwerful hurricanes in US history, does not invalidate this hypothesis, since at issue are mean frequency and intensity, not isolated occurrences.
Personally, I do not think it is appropriate to even suggest that Katrina has anything to do with global warming. Katrina is one single storm, and horrendous storms have always and can always occur. However, independently, I do believe it is valid to speculate that there is a reasonable likelihood, that as a result of global warming, climate extremes - including frequency and severity of hurricanes, will increase.
#24
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
Actually the most powerful hurricane in US history might have been in 1713 out in the Florida Keys, but no one was around to see it. Or it might have been in 4318 BC, but again, no weather equipment was around to record it.
#25
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
Gillman, you had posted:
Actually there is no gas shortage here per say.
A wild hoax sent through email and word of mouth said that all GA gas stations will be closing today at 4:00PM due to a gas shortage, not to re-open again until Friday.
It created such a panic that people immediately left work, homes etc and piled to their nearest fueling station.
15 -35 minute gas lines at all the stations that I saw today creating terrible traffic jams on most roads.
The governor did a press conference to say that we are getting all the gasoline we need from our own ports and not to panic.
They say that there will be a temporary shortage but not directly related to the storm, but rather because of the panic, and the time neccessary for distrubution.
It's really crazy and have never seen things like this before.
It's just after 1AM and they are still lining up.
(While the delivery trucks unload on the same lot)
They say prices should be back to "normal" by the weekend.
(Whatever "normal" is)
Unfortunately both my vehicles need refueling tonight.
I'll likely spend +$100 between the two.
THATS NUTS!
Atlanta is already experiencing a gas shortage and prices have risen to $4.99!
A wild hoax sent through email and word of mouth said that all GA gas stations will be closing today at 4:00PM due to a gas shortage, not to re-open again until Friday.
It created such a panic that people immediately left work, homes etc and piled to their nearest fueling station.
15 -35 minute gas lines at all the stations that I saw today creating terrible traffic jams on most roads.
The governor did a press conference to say that we are getting all the gasoline we need from our own ports and not to panic.
They say that there will be a temporary shortage but not directly related to the storm, but rather because of the panic, and the time neccessary for distrubution.
It's really crazy and have never seen things like this before.
It's just after 1AM and they are still lining up.
(While the delivery trucks unload on the same lot)
They say prices should be back to "normal" by the weekend.
(Whatever "normal" is)
Unfortunately both my vehicles need refueling tonight.
I'll likely spend +$100 between the two.
THATS NUTS!
#26
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
Originally Posted by coz6
Anybody else geting nothing but hate from the people they work with??? They all made fun of my "space ship" when I first got it.
I'm having trouble parking, too many motorcycles and bicycles are starting to show up at work, so in a small way people are already starting to make adjustments.
#27
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
I work in an engineering firm (specializing in highway transportation!), and when I got my Prius in April 2005, most people were very receptive, interested, and impressed when I explained the many unique attributes of the car. Of course, it was mostly just "maybe I'll think about a hybrid next time around." Fast forward to today, when many employees passed by gas stations selling regular for $3.559 - they are just smiling at me and asking me where they can get such an accurate "crystal ball".
#28
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
Things may be settling down already:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050902/katri...hk3.html?.v=22
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050902/katri...hk3.html?.v=22
Light sweet crude for October delivery fell $1.90 to settle at $67.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gasoline futures tumbled nearly 23 cents to settle at $2.18 a gallon, their first decline this week.
#29
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
In Baltimore, we'll probably be at $4 by Monday. Here's how this week has been:
Monday: $2.29
Tuesday: $2.49
Wednesday: $2.59
Thursday: $2.99
Friday: $3.49
Saturday: $3.69
There's no end in sight. It must be great to be the CEO of an oil company, and must really suck to drive an H2.
Monday: $2.29
Tuesday: $2.49
Wednesday: $2.59
Thursday: $2.99
Friday: $3.49
Saturday: $3.69
There's no end in sight. It must be great to be the CEO of an oil company, and must really suck to drive an H2.
#30
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
Hi All:
___I am inclined to now predict we will be closer to $2.00 then $4.00 by Christmas given the minor amount of panic that has been seen throughout much of the South and South Eastern states over the last week. Not that I did not panic and purchase my own excess quantity last Sunday night but that was at $2.699, not $3.39 as I am seeing locally now … The smart investor always buys/sells when there is blood in the streets and Katrina has caused about as close to that as one could imagine. In simpler terms, I see the smart traders taking the contrarian position with large short positions in gasoline mid-day Tuesday/early Wednesday. I bet they make a killing over the next 3 weeks too! If only I was a younger, betting man with more disposable, less brains, and bigger … You all know what I mean
___If any of you live in the Chicago area and want to purchase 27 gallons not including the containers for lets say $3.25 per, I would be willing to fill you up
___Good Luck
___Wayne R. Gerdes
___Waynegerdes@earthlink.net
___I am inclined to now predict we will be closer to $2.00 then $4.00 by Christmas given the minor amount of panic that has been seen throughout much of the South and South Eastern states over the last week. Not that I did not panic and purchase my own excess quantity last Sunday night but that was at $2.699, not $3.39 as I am seeing locally now … The smart investor always buys/sells when there is blood in the streets and Katrina has caused about as close to that as one could imagine. In simpler terms, I see the smart traders taking the contrarian position with large short positions in gasoline mid-day Tuesday/early Wednesday. I bet they make a killing over the next 3 weeks too! If only I was a younger, betting man with more disposable, less brains, and bigger … You all know what I mean
___If any of you live in the Chicago area and want to purchase 27 gallons not including the containers for lets say $3.25 per, I would be willing to fill you up
___Good Luck
___Wayne R. Gerdes
___Waynegerdes@earthlink.net