Whats everyones best guess for a plug in Prius, 2010 ? (Toyota seemed to imply 2012 but now that the Chevy Volt is in the picture ...

 

I am less worried about when than the quality of the final product. I've been doing some traction battery work over in Prius Technical Stuff and this is tricky technology.

Bob Wilson

 

tnx BW ! - I should have said when a PHEV Prius with typical Toyota quality - would they sacrifice quality (thus risk warranty claims) for market share ?

 

No problem.

What I'm finding is to understand these higher energy storage batteries I have to think current or more accurately columbs. Voltage can be misleading and this takes a different attitude. For example, a worn-out NiMH battery can show similar voltage to a full capacity NiMH. You have to throw a significant load on the battery and even then, this is not a good metric.

Here is some of my most recent work:

This is a drive around Huntsville last night where I was interested in warming up the car, doing a forced-charge to "80%" and then driving up a hill in reverse to see what happens between the temperature extreme, modules.

Looking at the forced charge and hill climb in detail:

You can really see the difference between the cooler, stronger modules, versus the hotter, weaker module. Charging is exothermic and discharging is endothermic.

The following chart shows a scatter plot of voltage vs current to give an idea of battery resistance:

The stronger battery holds the voltage under load (upper left quadrant) than the weaker battery but this is a subtle effect that is difficult to measure and manage.

Bob Wilson

 

Is Toyota paying you for this (they should be) - anyway I found a link for the 1/x (the next major rev of Prius due in the '09 model year) ?
http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-13746_7-9804928-48.html
and there is no mention of a plug (so the PHEV will be a totally separate model) ?

 

PHEV hybrids will, cannot, be viable until the issue of the electric grid's distribution capacity and power plant generation capacity is adequate addressed.

Think about even 1% of the national fleet becoming PHEV.

And just what do you suppose would happen to the PRICE/COST of power from the wall plug should that begin to happen..??

Efficiency of the grid insofar as "fuel burn" is concerned, maybe less than 50%

THINK....!!!

My guess is that the power company would insist on becoming the controlling entity of when, second by second, your PHEV goes into "on line" charge mode.

On a hot August night in Atlanta, Memphis, or Tucson you just may not get "charged".

 

1) The grid has plenty of capacity after hours.
2) I would prefer to see 50% being PHEV.
3) Supply and demand suggests it will go up followed by expansion of the base electrical grid and power sources.
4) The term is "well-to-wheel" and you'll find our current vehicle engines are pretty ineffeicient too, ~30% if you are careful.

Read!!!!

Bob Wilson

 

PHEVs will NOT bring the power grid down or cause rolling blackouts or any other dire predictions as yet not posted online. The issue has been studied, repeatedly.

http://www.epri-reports.org/

It's very technical, but one can read the summary, press release, FAQ and primer. That will answer the question about the "risks" posed by mass PHEV acceptance.

 

More than 40% of U.S. generating capacity operates at reduced load overnight.

Is it fair to conclude then that 60% of U. S. Power generation capacity is MAXED out even during the night..??

Maybe that's because in places like NYC they use "excess" night time capacity to pump water UPHILL so as to have that extra reserve generating capacity during the next day's PEAK use.

Strange, I just finished reading the entire EPRI report, all sections, and other than the above highlighted statement, all I find are projections on environmental impacts of combined PHEV and power plant generation. There is NO discussion of power generation or distribution grid being stressed, or not, due to the presumed growth of PHEVs. Within the report the issue of capacity is addressed simply via computer simulation of the additional generation and "dispatch" (distribution) capacity that would be required.

Perhaps, like me, you live in an area outside of the northeast where we have an abundance of generating capacity, at least at the moment. You may take note that in the northeast a lot, a whole lot, of power capacity is imported form Canada. The Canadians have made a commitment to abandon fossil fuels in the short term and at this very moment are working diligently to bring several (8-12[??]) previously moth-balled nuclear power plants back into operation.

I know we currently "ship" excess generating capacity from here in the Pacific NW to southern California, but to the NE...??

I think that is currently done via massive numbers of full to the brim railroad coal cars continuously leaving MT and WY headed for points EAST.

 

Eventually, if every single vehicle on the road were a PHEV and there were plug-in stations at every Exxon, Starbucks and McDonalds, and people were plugging in during the day, then yes I think the report does indicate, as do some of the reports at Argonne, that we need to study the PHEV issue and prepare for it. Utilities around the country are already doing that. Studying the potential impact, gauging time to market and market penetration, and considering options.

Here are the Argonne reports on PHEVs.
http://www.transportation.anl.gov/phev/

Hybrids have been in the U.S. market since, what, 2000. Yet the volume remains incredibly low. Factory PHEVs aren't yet even here. Most of those in service are fleets. 10 years out, perhaps there will be greater PHEV availability. But, will 40-50% of new cars sold be PHEVs, REVs or pure EVs? I dunno. I'd like to think so. I'd like to believe that will happen, or perhaps even we'll have attained 100% of the market be some form of AFV. As such, the power companies will have to act to increase capacity, hopefully through more renewables. But the regulations at the moment only require car makers to hit 35 MPG by 2020, and perhaps that will be pulled back in to 2015. Yawn.