A question I have wondered about concerns the trade in value of the TCH. Say that someone purchases their TCH for the long term and wants to put lots of the reliable Toyota miles on their car. When the TCH hits 150,000 mi., which is the predicted life of the battery, the car will probably be 5-10 yrs. old. Being 5-10 yrs. old, and a battery that costs $3-4,000 to replace looming in the near? future, what do you folks think will be the resale value at that time?

Obviously, I'm not looking for dollar figures here, but do you think the value of the used TCH will be higher (because it's a hybrid), lower (because no one wants a 7 or 8 yr. old car they're probably going to have to put 3-4 thousand into), or about the same as non hybrids? Will anyone want to keep their hybrid at the 150,000 mi. point, knowing they're about to incur a large battery replacement cost on such an old car and will anyone in the used car market be interested in the same? Will the hybrids usher in an age of the disposable car?

Of course, this is all speculative, but I'd like to hear some different opinions on this.

 

First of all, the current wholesale price for the battery is about $1000 and in 5 to 10 years better batteries will be less expensive. There will also be an active market in salvaged batteries as there is now for the Prius (they sell for a little more than $500 on Ebay) as the number of TCHs on the road grows.

There are many other expensive parts on cars that wear out (eg. automatic transmissions) and cost more than a replacement battery so stop worrying and enjoy your car.

JeffD

 

I agree with Jeff's post. But I want to add that if Toyota has problems with batteries then we'll definitely a hit. On the other hand if there are no major battery issues then at worst it will be the same as a non-hybrid. However, the elimination of items such as the torque converter or alternator may more than make up for relatively simple motor/generators.

I think that was a perfectly legit question to bring up for discussion without being accused of worrying too much and being told to just enjoy the car.

 

Yeah, I've sort of wondered the same thing.

Couple of points I'd add. To date, Toyota has not had to replace a single hybrid battery in the US. From what I understand, even in Japan there are Priuses running around with 200k on the original batteries. When DOE did a test on the Toyota battery, they quit after 180k. So I think that the life of the battery is essentially the life of the car at this point.

I'm guessing that a lot depends on where you live. In a big metro area, there should be a premium on the hybrid. Here in the DC area, there certainly is even in the used car market.

 

I'm not at all worried about the issue or I wouldn't have taken the plunge on a loaded TCH. But I've always had the question in mind as it poses an interesting topic of discussion on something that no one knows the answer to.

The question is about the end of the batteries life span affecting resale/trade in value of the car. Not about defective batteries. At this point in time, there cannot be an active market for aged hybrid cars and batteries. The genre is still too new.

I know that the price of these batteries should go down some and the quality/effectiveness of new generations of these batteries should go up some. But who, in this day and age, other than a few very practical individuals, is going to want to spend the money for a new battery, plus the cost of installing it, on an already aging car. Most people, even on non hybrid cars, like to purchase vs. lease a car so that they can own it outright and not have payments for a few years afterwards. But even some of my "practical" friends only keep their car for a yr. or two after it's paid off and then they're in the market for a new car for whatever reason. Usually cause they just want one, although there's always a good excuse. In the case of the hybrid however, is the possibility of the expense of a new battery replacement going to inhibit the price of a used hybrid even more than normal?

 

Well, looking at the prices of the exceedingly rare used Priuses (Prii?) for sale in our area I'd have to say that I think the potential batter replacement has little or no effect on resale value. I've seen 2-3 year old Priuses for sale for nearly what one would pay for a brand new one.

 

Yeah, Lilarienne, that makes sense-for a 2to 3 yr. old car. But what I'm talking about is the case scenario where someone has owned their hybrid long enough to pay it off and have close to to the mileage that the battery's life span is supposed to be. (say, 6 or 7 + yrs. old and 120 to 150,000 miles on the odometer.

 

A dealership within 25 miles of where I live has a 2001 Prius with around 56,000 miles listed for $17,500. True, that mileage is pretty low, but that price is pretty high for a car that is 5 years old.

 

Gabe,

I did a quick check on the private party pricing of 2001 hybrids. The Insight was about $10,000 minus $2000 if at 150,000 miles and the Prius was at $12,000 again minus $2000 for 150,000 miles. There are some available on ebay that indicate these general price checks are reasonably accurate.

So these older hybrids near their battery EOL (they probably will last significantly longer) still are holding onto about half of their current value even though the newer models are noticably improved. You may be hard pressed to find similar results for non-hybrid cars.

My wife's Subaru Outback (1997, 197,000 miles) is down to about 1/5 to 1/6 of its original value even with its reputation for running forever.

JeffD

 

When I went to buy I asked the finance guy to quote me residual value on a lease. I had no intention of leasing, but figured it woudl give me a indication of what the projected resale value woudl be. He quoted:

TCH 59%
XLE 54%
LE 52%

Clearly they project the TCH to do very well in resale otherwise they woudl not quote such high residual. Granted that is a short term lease, but still says something. As long as gas stay where it is or likely heads up over time I suspect more and more people will give up on gas and go more economical. Look at those in these forums trading more upscale cars. I have seen at least a few people (myself included from a TL) mention coming from an Audi, BMW, etc.