My dealer used something called the Black Book to offer on my used car. Its values were substantially less than ANYTHING ELSE I was able to find: Kelly Blue Book, Edmunds, Consumer Reports, and one other whose name I now forget. The "Black Book" figure for my car was about 25% lower than the lowest of the 4 other sources. So I sold the car myself for just below the lowest of the 4 sources, though I probably could have gotten KBB value if I had more patience!

Bottom line, your figures can make more sense if you're willing to see a vehicle yourself as opposed to trading it in. YMMV.

 

One at a time:

First, when a car is selling nationally at MSRP the dealers are reluctant to give a high trade since to them the MSRP is now the same as a minimum sale price, thus they still want to make money on the trade. I'd think unless the car is really clean and they already have a buyer (which they may in So Cal for a convertible) they will give you maximum of Clean trade in price. An advantage of dealing with a specific dealer may be to give them time to shop your trade and find a buyer so they have no risk.


Second, I agree with your expected trade in price. They won't give you any more than the invoice of the 2008 models so even if retail is 25K+ 22 to 23 is probably tops on trade in.

Last, I don't see a cost to trade unless your're planning on a base model. If you get 23 against a loaded 32 and pay taxes, etc for a difference of over 10K then you have spent cash of 10K or the equavilent of about $200/mo on a 5 year loan. I think there's a couple of K's in there that you might be missing.

However you seem to be willing to take a hit of 5K on depreciation so that may not matter.

I guess my last comment is similar to my first post, I'd wait until I knew what I wanted. Surely the maintenance for 1 more year can't be all that bad. Trading for a temporary car just doesn't make sence. Have you looked at a 1 year (or 18 month) lease?